4 ms·

There is so little competition, and it would be so expensive to spin something up… I could see it sputtering along for many years. Who can disrupt this? Need sp

There is so little competition, and it would be so expensive to spin something up… I could see it sputtering along for many years. Who can disrupt this? Need space X level money and research, and not sure the profit potential is as high.

bobthepanda 3y ago
It is really hard. China, Russia and Japan have tried state sponsored schemes without success. Bombardier of Canada had to throw in the towel, and Embraer of Brazil almost did. Part of the problem is also that airlines have been very good at squeezing the duopoly while demanding ever more. The competition, if it manages to get a plane in the air, usually isn’t as fuel efficient and so the airlines have mostly not been interested.
- margalabargala 3y ago
  > Bombardier of Canada had to throw in the towel To be fair, that's because Boeing forced them to sell the rights to the A220 for $1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CSeries_dumping_petition_by_Boeing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CSeries_dumping_petition_by_Bo...
  - zdragnar 3y ago
    Boeing filed ta petition with the USITC, but it was ultimately the Department of Commerce that fined them for what they decided was unfair trade. The USITC reversed their own decision a year or so later, and Boeing chose to not appeal the decision, but Bombardier and Canada ended up deciding to not pursue things further.
  - bobthepanda 3y ago
    Bombardier had a lot of other problems going on as well. Generally, their entire transportation division (they also had railcar manufacturing) had manufacturing and timeline issues. The price cut that resulted in the dumping penalties was an attempt to shore up a program that was already flailing.
  - snypher 3y ago
    You mean to say the rights were sold to Airbus, who went on to acquire more.
    - margalabargala 3y ago
      That's what I said. The rights were sold to Airbus. For nothing, under duress.
- bryanlarsen 3y ago
  Russia and Japan failed, but it's far too early to call COMAC from China a failure.
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    C919 isn't China's first attempt. But they have a long term view of the industry and should be able to make progress even if they only satisfy some of their own domestic demand.
  - ivan_gammel 3y ago
    Russia just got a considerable motivation boost due to sanctions so the local order book for SSJ and MC families will be likely on the scale of hundreds of aircrafts. They are no longer a prestige project and Russia has the track record of building the necessary industrial capacity quickly (they ramped up military production to support war in Ukraine far beyond of what the West thought was possible in that time frame).
    - bobthepanda 3y ago
      I wouldn’t really call it disruptive; they’re using Russian aircraft because they have to. Anyone who has a choice in the matter will still pick the duopoly because of better dispatch reliability and fuel efficiency.
  - genmud 3y ago
    I doubt it will ever be certified by any aviation authority outside of China, which will pretty much make it the tu204 of CN.
    - thriftwy 3y ago
      Iran might certify it. Russia might certify it unless having a viable domestic alternative. Moreover, it could reuse parts for its own planes. These three taken together are already a significant chunk of the global market, each having a large domestic demand. The problem with Tu-204 is that it wasn't a good market fit, like the current Chinese ARJ. It was certified OK and could fly abroad all right. People said the same about Chinese cars and they're the largest exporter in 2023. What if they have not one but ten generic passenger plane brands by 2040?
- thriftwy 3y ago
  Russia has a fleet of ~200 Superjet planes which are handling a significant fraction of domestic traffic, but it's indeed not clear whether any more may be built after the 2022 sanctions. They also currently do not have engine replacements.
  - ivan_gammel 3y ago
    >They also currently do not have engine replacements. They demonstrated localized version of SSJ-100 with PD-8 engine in 2023. I'm not sure if it actually flew, but there were at least ground tests of the fully assembled aircraft.
    - thriftwy 3y ago
      Even if it's possible to retrofit existing fleet with PD-8, I can't imagine this happening at the rate at which the old (partly French-made) engines will be going out of order. So even that fleet will dwindle in numbers in the next years. Perhaps to zero, perhaps not - we'll see.
- wkat4242 3y ago
  Embraer does really well though. I much rather fly in an E195 E2 than a 737 or A320 Neo. Really next level. KLM has these, unfortunately they rarely use them to my destination because they can fill a 737 to there as well :(
bombcar 3y ago
I'm sure SpaceX could build a jet if they wanted to. I'm also certain they don't want to.
- nickff 3y ago
  Commercial aircraft are significantly more complex and regulated than rockets are (for now). Many companies can develop aircraft (e.g. bombardier), but few can actually get them into production.

bobthepanda 3y ago

It is really hard. China, Russia and Japan have tried state sponsored schemes without success. Bombardier of Canada had to throw in the towel, and Embraer of Brazil almost did. Part of the problem is also that airlines have been very good at squeezing the duopoly while demanding ever more. The competition, if it manages to get a plane in the air, usually isn’t as fuel efficient and so the airlines have mostly not been interested.

margalabargala 3y ago
> Bombardier of Canada had to throw in the towel To be fair, that's because Boeing forced them to sell the rights to the A220 for $1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CSeries_dumping_petition_by_Boeing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CSeries_dumping_petition_by_Bo...
- zdragnar 3y ago
  Boeing filed ta petition with the USITC, but it was ultimately the Department of Commerce that fined them for what they decided was unfair trade. The USITC reversed their own decision a year or so later, and Boeing chose to not appeal the decision, but Bombardier and Canada ended up deciding to not pursue things further.
- bobthepanda 3y ago
  Bombardier had a lot of other problems going on as well. Generally, their entire transportation division (they also had railcar manufacturing) had manufacturing and timeline issues. The price cut that resulted in the dumping penalties was an attempt to shore up a program that was already flailing.
- snypher 3y ago
  You mean to say the rights were sold to Airbus, who went on to acquire more.
  - margalabargala 3y ago
    That's what I said. The rights were sold to Airbus. For nothing, under duress.
bryanlarsen 3y ago
Russia and Japan failed, but it's far too early to call COMAC from China a failure.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  C919 isn't China's first attempt. But they have a long term view of the industry and should be able to make progress even if they only satisfy some of their own domestic demand.
- ivan_gammel 3y ago
  Russia just got a considerable motivation boost due to sanctions so the local order book for SSJ and MC families will be likely on the scale of hundreds of aircrafts. They are no longer a prestige project and Russia has the track record of building the necessary industrial capacity quickly (they ramped up military production to support war in Ukraine far beyond of what the West thought was possible in that time frame).
  - bobthepanda 3y ago
    I wouldn’t really call it disruptive; they’re using Russian aircraft because they have to. Anyone who has a choice in the matter will still pick the duopoly because of better dispatch reliability and fuel efficiency.
- genmud 3y ago
  I doubt it will ever be certified by any aviation authority outside of China, which will pretty much make it the tu204 of CN.
  - thriftwy 3y ago
    Iran might certify it. Russia might certify it unless having a viable domestic alternative. Moreover, it could reuse parts for its own planes. These three taken together are already a significant chunk of the global market, each having a large domestic demand. The problem with Tu-204 is that it wasn't a good market fit, like the current Chinese ARJ. It was certified OK and could fly abroad all right. People said the same about Chinese cars and they're the largest exporter in 2023. What if they have not one but ten generic passenger plane brands by 2040?
thriftwy 3y ago
Russia has a fleet of ~200 Superjet planes which are handling a significant fraction of domestic traffic, but it's indeed not clear whether any more may be built after the 2022 sanctions. They also currently do not have engine replacements.
- ivan_gammel 3y ago
  >They also currently do not have engine replacements. They demonstrated localized version of SSJ-100 with PD-8 engine in 2023. I'm not sure if it actually flew, but there were at least ground tests of the fully assembled aircraft.
  - thriftwy 3y ago
    Even if it's possible to retrofit existing fleet with PD-8, I can't imagine this happening at the rate at which the old (partly French-made) engines will be going out of order. So even that fleet will dwindle in numbers in the next years. Perhaps to zero, perhaps not - we'll see.
wkat4242 3y ago
Embraer does really well though. I much rather fly in an E195 E2 than a 737 or A320 Neo. Really next level. KLM has these, unfortunately they rarely use them to my destination because they can fill a 737 to there as well :(

bombcar 3y ago

I'm sure SpaceX could build a jet if they wanted to. I'm also certain they don't want to.

nickff 3y ago
Commercial aircraft are significantly more complex and regulated than rockets are (for now). Many companies can develop aircraft (e.g. bombardier), but few can actually get them into production.