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Part of the reason is probably similar to why they are building empty apartment buildings in the middle of nowhere: developers secured funding to do that and no

Part of the reason is probably similar to why they are building empty apartment buildings in the middle of nowhere: developers secured funding to do that and now they need to deliver a plant. The fact that it might never be profitable to operate is not their problem. There just is a lot of inertia to these projects. Another part is that they are probably replacing dirty, inefficient, old plants with more economical and efficient newer ones. The less efficient a plant is, the more pollution it creates and China has huge issues with smog. And of course a lot of the plans of even a few years ago are getting obsoleted by rapidly the changing facts of renewables scaling faster and cheaper than anticipated. In a way, they are a victim of their own success here as a lot of the renewables industry is happening in China. The theory that coal plants are going to be used as peaker plants makes a bit of sense as it means they won't have to import expensive gas and build new plants for that. My guess is that they will use more coal in the winter than in the summer when they have more solar on the grid. But it's going to be some time before they can stop relying on coal completely.

lebean 3y ago
Tofu dreg coal plants? Maybe
itsoktocry 3y ago
The main reason is that they need energy, and coal is cheap, reliable and abundant. Worry about the environment is not at the top of the list. They aren't making cement or steel with solar panels. This is the reality.
- jillesvangurp 3y ago
  It's not that cheap. And it's not abundant locally so they have to import it. The reality is that it's more cost effective to generate energy using wind and solar at this point. Which is why China is deploying so much of that. You are right they don't care as much about the environment. But they do care about cost. Coal stopped being economical in most places years ago. That's why so many coal plants are closing everywhere. The reason the Chinese are still building coal plants is that they can't ramp up solar and wind production quick enough and they don't want to switch to gas at this point, which would be a temporary thing as well. As per their plans a few years ago, they would bridge the gap with nuclear and renewables with temporary coal plants with that peaking a few years from now and that ultimately being largely gone by 2065. However, the calendar keeps shifting there, in favor of solar and wind. Which is why this article is projecting the number of plants to still grow but less coal burned overall. Which is good news of course. I think their nuclear plans are being adjusted downwards for the same reasons. Cost.
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    China usually imports specialty coal, but they have a lot of coal locally, but it’s just a bit too dirty and doesn’t burn as hot as what they can get from Aus. The main issue with renewables for China is that they are mostly in the west and they still don’t have enough grid to transport all of the green energy east where the people are. They also have to move away from gas at the same time, so coal it is.
  - maxglute 3y ago
    PRC has plenty of coal reserves. They only import coal for steel making. Thermal/power coal negligible and only then to plug domestistc production gaps. They're building a lot of domestic coal plants because advanced plants are "clean enough" and supplement energy security. But yes, I don't think anyone expected renewable costs to come down that much. The other consideration is crack down on RE freed up a lot of compatible construction capacity to to mass rollout renewables. And relatively "lowskilled/cheap" construction overcapacity is going to disappear as PRC demographic transitions - old manual labour excess supply on their way out. Economics may swing back to plants.
jeffbee 3y ago
I love how Americans like to point to the meme about empty Chinese cities, as if planning for the future was a big failure of society. Meanwhile in America there are more people sleeping under bridges than there are empty apartments in China. "Haha look at those dumb commies, investing in the future" an American chuckles to himself while driving past a tent city on the side of a freeway.
- inglor_cz 3y ago
  So you are convinced that those empty apartments are actually a rational, planned investment that will be useful in the future, and not just a classical misallocation of money? I have seen the results of a previous real estate bubble in Spain. Plenty of homes in weird locations, slowly falling apart, never occupied, some never even finished. As the local left said: "People without homes, homes without people". I am not a leftist, but they were onto something here.
  - jeffbee 3y ago
    Spain is a disorganized basket case. China has a way to execute on their plans: they build a city and then the force people to move in. The most obviously successful is Pudong New Area, which in the 90s was just as empty as any other. Now it has a nation-sized GDP.
    - inglor_cz 3y ago
      Chinese demography has changed a lot in the last 30 years. The young population is shrinking fast. I don't think they have enough people to fill so many apartments anymore.
      - jeffbee 3y ago
        Since 1992 when the "ghost cities" meme began China gained 300 million people and it is still growing.
        3y ago

lebean 3y ago

Tofu dreg coal plants? Maybe

itsoktocry 3y ago

The main reason is that they need energy, and coal is cheap, reliable and abundant. Worry about the environment is not at the top of the list. They aren't making cement or steel with solar panels. This is the reality.

jillesvangurp 3y ago
It's not that cheap. And it's not abundant locally so they have to import it. The reality is that it's more cost effective to generate energy using wind and solar at this point. Which is why China is deploying so much of that. You are right they don't care as much about the environment. But they do care about cost. Coal stopped being economical in most places years ago. That's why so many coal plants are closing everywhere. The reason the Chinese are still building coal plants is that they can't ramp up solar and wind production quick enough and they don't want to switch to gas at this point, which would be a temporary thing as well. As per their plans a few years ago, they would bridge the gap with nuclear and renewables with temporary coal plants with that peaking a few years from now and that ultimately being largely gone by 2065. However, the calendar keeps shifting there, in favor of solar and wind. Which is why this article is projecting the number of plants to still grow but less coal burned overall. Which is good news of course. I think their nuclear plans are being adjusted downwards for the same reasons. Cost.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  China usually imports specialty coal, but they have a lot of coal locally, but it’s just a bit too dirty and doesn’t burn as hot as what they can get from Aus. The main issue with renewables for China is that they are mostly in the west and they still don’t have enough grid to transport all of the green energy east where the people are. They also have to move away from gas at the same time, so coal it is.
- maxglute 3y ago
  PRC has plenty of coal reserves. They only import coal for steel making. Thermal/power coal negligible and only then to plug domestistc production gaps. They're building a lot of domestic coal plants because advanced plants are "clean enough" and supplement energy security. But yes, I don't think anyone expected renewable costs to come down that much. The other consideration is crack down on RE freed up a lot of compatible construction capacity to to mass rollout renewables. And relatively "lowskilled/cheap" construction overcapacity is going to disappear as PRC demographic transitions - old manual labour excess supply on their way out. Economics may swing back to plants.

jeffbee 3y ago

I love how Americans like to point to the meme about empty Chinese cities, as if planning for the future was a big failure of society. Meanwhile in America there are more people sleeping under bridges than there are empty apartments in China. "Haha look at those dumb commies, investing in the future" an American chuckles to himself while driving past a tent city on the side of a freeway.

inglor_cz 3y ago
So you are convinced that those empty apartments are actually a rational, planned investment that will be useful in the future, and not just a classical misallocation of money? I have seen the results of a previous real estate bubble in Spain. Plenty of homes in weird locations, slowly falling apart, never occupied, some never even finished. As the local left said: "People without homes, homes without people". I am not a leftist, but they were onto something here.
- jeffbee 3y ago
  Spain is a disorganized basket case. China has a way to execute on their plans: they build a city and then the force people to move in. The most obviously successful is Pudong New Area, which in the 90s was just as empty as any other. Now it has a nation-sized GDP.
  - inglor_cz 3y ago
    Chinese demography has changed a lot in the last 30 years. The young population is shrinking fast. I don't think they have enough people to fill so many apartments anymore.
    - jeffbee 3y ago
      Since 1992 when the "ghost cities" meme began China gained 300 million people and it is still growing.
      - 3y ago