4 ms·

This is from November 2023 prior to Sora. Reading this in the context of Sora, this is contingent on: 1. movie or tv show length generation needs to be reason

This is from November 2023 prior to Sora. Reading this in the context of Sora, this is contingent on: 1. movie or tv show length generation needs to be reasonably affordable, 2. the generated output must look real beyond first look (text is readable, physics is correct, no dream-like morphing), 3. continuity between scenes 4. prompts can accurately produce the artistic vision from directors and producers faster than a human just doing it 5. the public will accept it I am reminded of a scene in Westworld, where basically a someone can sit a desk and describe in natural language a scene to a computer for instant rendering. The user can now concern himself exclusively on the details of the story. Perhaps roles will transition to becoming full time story tellers, and the minutia of vfx, animating, rigging, 3d models, actors, cameras, set designers, trucks, food, lighting, electrical, location, licensing, permits, etc. all go away.

throwaway5959 3y ago
Some people like doing that minutia.
- euroderf 3y ago
  Similarly, some people like making ceramic coffee mugs, even tho the mass produced stuff is super cheap. And some people like buying the former, even tho the mass produced stuff is super cheap. There will always be a market for handmade. But, will this translate to less tangible goods ?
earthwalker99 3y ago
[flagged]
ksec 3y ago
>This is from November 2023 prior to Sora. Before I would have said we have plenty more to do before A.I takes over. And a.i ( Assisted Intelligence ) would aid those creative process. So it will be 50% job cut in the near 10-15 years, while the other 50% being basically double as effective if not more. After Sora I think future is quite bleak for a lot of artist. Sora is like 80% there, I think we would be 90% there in 2 years time with 5-10x more GPGPU power training. And in 6 years time 95% there by 2030. Even if it didn't eliminate 90% of job but 80%. The redundancy would mean the job market is flooded with animators and their salary will likely stagnant if not fall. At the same time I finally understand why Nvidia is worth so much.
- eeeficus 3y ago
  > Sora is like 80% there, I think we would be 90% there in 2 years time with 5-10x more GPGPU power training. Don’t underestimate the last 20%! I don’t think this is just a matter of more training or more data. But yeah, 2-5 more years will not change the outcome you’re describing!
  - saiya-jin 3y ago
    The thing is, you run the same prompt twice and you get twice an unique result. Its trivial to keep asking for more renditions of given scene till you are happy with it, even kids can do this and certainly somebody in sweatshop in Vietnam can do that too. You literally need 1 person a bit of computer power. So instead of team of pixar and disney you have 1 guy with the product and some aws prepaid computing. Now I don't know how long it took openai to put together that 10 minute demo video, if they ran 3x the resulting prompts or 100x more and had to cherry pick hard (ie that bird's head, I was expecting heavy morphing of those feathers but they kept their visual consistency, for sure this was not the first attempt with at-glance-perfect result).
    - wdh505 3y ago
      Just imagine what it could do with a storyboard
    - l33tman 3y ago
      sama sat on twitter during that day and rendered prompts from people on the fly, so those weren't heavily cherry-picked. I didn't watch most of them and they had some bugs for sure, but if they had had to cherry-pick like 1 of 100 for the blog demos he would never have sat and done live renders like that.
  - lemoncookiechip 3y ago
    The problem is that Hollywood doesn't really care. They live on making compromises during shoots, and if they can save hundreds of thousands as well as dozens of hours and manpower on a scene, they will do it (and they do all the time with horrible CGI, poorly shot scenes, etc...), and they aren't the only industry that will do this. Right away, the stock footage market is in danger because content creators will opt for a free (good enough) option, over having to not just pay for, and but look for exactly what they want and need. There's plenty of other industries that will be affected, I can't say that 80% of people will lose their jobs, these things aren't a switch you flip, it's a gradual process, but over time we'll definitely see jobs made obsolete/optimized. This technology is the worst it'll ever be, and we've seen how far it got in just a single year with Will Smith eating spaghetti and now Sora.
IanCal 3y ago
I think you're looking at what's needed to replace a lot more than 90% of the jobs. The comparison was against 500 artists working for 5 years. So you don't need to get to "write a script and have it render" but get it to the point where a top class animated film can be made with 50 artists working for 5 years. Also at that scale it can cost an enormous amount and still be totally fine.
Ferret7446 3y ago
It starts with AI generating a short scene. Maybe a transition scene. The public doesn't have to accept it if they don't know it's there. It's interesting you mention Westworld, the first movie to use CGI. It was extremely primitive, 2D, and only for a few seconds. See now CGI in modern movies. Even if progress halts at Sora's level (the absolute worst case scenario), I think it's good enough to replace some 1-5% of scenes (meaning 1-5% of animators' jobs are ticking down since last Thursday).
add-sub-mul-div 3y ago
> the minutia of vfx, animating, rigging, 3d models, actors, cameras, set designers, trucks, food, lighting, electrical, location, licensing, permits, etc. all go away. They won't go away, they'll be chosen by default by software. Analogous to the vast majority of powerpoint docs, which are shitty and created by people who don't know anything other than some vague ideas and bullet points they want to put down, but nothing about what it takes to make a quality presentation.

throwaway5959 3y ago

Some people like doing that minutia.

euroderf 3y ago
Similarly, some people like making ceramic coffee mugs, even tho the mass produced stuff is super cheap. And some people like buying the former, even tho the mass produced stuff is super cheap. There will always be a market for handmade. But, will this translate to less tangible goods ?

earthwalker99 3y ago

[flagged]

ksec 3y ago

>This is from November 2023 prior to Sora. Before I would have said we have plenty more to do before A.I takes over. And a.i ( Assisted Intelligence ) would aid those creative process. So it will be 50% job cut in the near 10-15 years, while the other 50% being basically double as effective if not more. After Sora I think future is quite bleak for a lot of artist. Sora is like 80% there, I think we would be 90% there in 2 years time with 5-10x more GPGPU power training. And in 6 years time 95% there by 2030. Even if it didn't eliminate 90% of job but 80%. The redundancy would mean the job market is flooded with animators and their salary will likely stagnant if not fall. At the same time I finally understand why Nvidia is worth so much.

eeeficus 3y ago
> Sora is like 80% there, I think we would be 90% there in 2 years time with 5-10x more GPGPU power training. Don’t underestimate the last 20%! I don’t think this is just a matter of more training or more data. But yeah, 2-5 more years will not change the outcome you’re describing!
- saiya-jin 3y ago
  The thing is, you run the same prompt twice and you get twice an unique result. Its trivial to keep asking for more renditions of given scene till you are happy with it, even kids can do this and certainly somebody in sweatshop in Vietnam can do that too. You literally need 1 person a bit of computer power. So instead of team of pixar and disney you have 1 guy with the product and some aws prepaid computing. Now I don't know how long it took openai to put together that 10 minute demo video, if they ran 3x the resulting prompts or 100x more and had to cherry pick hard (ie that bird's head, I was expecting heavy morphing of those feathers but they kept their visual consistency, for sure this was not the first attempt with at-glance-perfect result).
  - wdh505 3y ago
    Just imagine what it could do with a storyboard
  - l33tman 3y ago
    sama sat on twitter during that day and rendered prompts from people on the fly, so those weren't heavily cherry-picked. I didn't watch most of them and they had some bugs for sure, but if they had had to cherry-pick like 1 of 100 for the blog demos he would never have sat and done live renders like that.
- lemoncookiechip 3y ago
  The problem is that Hollywood doesn't really care. They live on making compromises during shoots, and if they can save hundreds of thousands as well as dozens of hours and manpower on a scene, they will do it (and they do all the time with horrible CGI, poorly shot scenes, etc...), and they aren't the only industry that will do this. Right away, the stock footage market is in danger because content creators will opt for a free (good enough) option, over having to not just pay for, and but look for exactly what they want and need. There's plenty of other industries that will be affected, I can't say that 80% of people will lose their jobs, these things aren't a switch you flip, it's a gradual process, but over time we'll definitely see jobs made obsolete/optimized. This technology is the worst it'll ever be, and we've seen how far it got in just a single year with Will Smith eating spaghetti and now Sora.

IanCal 3y ago

I think you're looking at what's needed to replace a lot more than 90% of the jobs. The comparison was against 500 artists working for 5 years. So you don't need to get to "write a script and have it render" but get it to the point where a top class animated film can be made with 50 artists working for 5 years. Also at that scale it can cost an enormous amount and still be totally fine.

Ferret7446 3y ago

It starts with AI generating a short scene. Maybe a transition scene. The public doesn't have to accept it if they don't know it's there. It's interesting you mention Westworld, the first movie to use CGI. It was extremely primitive, 2D, and only for a few seconds. See now CGI in modern movies. Even if progress halts at Sora's level (the absolute worst case scenario), I think it's good enough to replace some 1-5% of scenes (meaning 1-5% of animators' jobs are ticking down since last Thursday).

add-sub-mul-div 3y ago

> the minutia of vfx, animating, rigging, 3d models, actors, cameras, set designers, trucks, food, lighting, electrical, location, licensing, permits, etc. all go away. They won't go away, they'll be chosen by default by software. Analogous to the vast majority of powerpoint docs, which are shitty and created by people who don't know anything other than some vague ideas and bullet points they want to put down, but nothing about what it takes to make a quality presentation.