6 ms·

There will be an inflection point with devices like Vision Pro, where you'd rather do things you do right now with a laptop, tablet or TV in the Vision Pro inst

There will be an inflection point with devices like Vision Pro, where you'd rather do things you do right now with a laptop, tablet or TV in the Vision Pro instead of with those other devices. Then the other devices will be the ones gathering dust. The hard part is being able to know when that inflection point comes. But I think there's a very good chance that 10 years from now, it's already behind us.

steve1977 3y ago
if putting on the Vision Pro is as fast and seamless as grabbing a tablet or opening up your laptop I guess.
- bryanrasmussen 3y ago
  when it's a pair of sunglasses with the Facial Studio Code already opened to your project, in other words.
  - 8n4vidtmkvmk 3y ago
    Too bad "Visual" is already taken.. maybe Vision Studio Code.
Turskarama 3y ago
Here's my prediction for this: you need to have input with the same fidelity and ease of use as a mouse and keyboard. The mouse input analogy is probably pretty close with eye tracking, but text input? I can't even imagine what it will look like to make that work as nicely as real touch typing.
- tiagod 3y ago
  You can use a macbook keyboard and trackpad seamlessly with the headset
- WanderPanda 3y ago
  It will probably look like a keyboard. Keyboards are so lindy at this point they didn’t even adjust the layout (from that path-dependent mess we are dealing with), let alone the form factor
- nilkn 3y ago
  I got an acrylic tray [0] that holds a keyboard and trackpad and can comfortably sit on my lap to use with the Vision Pro. It’s truly marvelous and makes the VP feel like an actual laptop replacement, with the only real problem being that visionOS has too much iPadOS heritage and not enough MacOS. [0] https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CCS71K6P?psc=1&ref=ppx_yo2ov_dt_b_product_details https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CCS71K6P?psc=1&ref=ppx_yo2ov_dt_...
  - Turskarama 3y ago
    Sure, but one of the big upsides of vr is the ability to move around a space. If you're just sitting at a desk (or on a couch) anyway then you might as well just have a couple of huge monitors. In the case of the vision pro it would even be cheaper to use several large monitors instead.
    - nilkn 3y ago
      The ability to move around while I’m actively wearing it is not particularly compelling or relevant to me. I didn’t get it for room-scale VR games, and I tend to take it off when I get up anyway. I find it really amazing that I can set up a huge workspace on-the-fly pretty much wherever I want, including the couch. I have a very slick dedicated home office I could be in right now but I actually enjoy using the VP from the living room more for anything other than serious 9-5 work for my employer.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
lolinder 3y ago
There might be an inflection point like what you describe. It's also entirely possible that this is an evolutionary dead end like the voice interfaces that were the Next Big Thing a few years ago. We've grown so accustomed to viewing technology as a steady progression of improvements that it seems natural that the thing that Apple is pushing today will be universal in 10 years, but there's no guarantee of that, and there are reasons to be skeptical that we'll look back at this as the next big leap. For myself, I'm keeping my eye out for technology that is less intrusive into the rest of my life, not more immersive.
- eloisius 3y ago
  My thoughts exactly. There are almost no things I do on a daily basis where I want to go through a cognitively expensive process of changing modes into an immersive experience. Even getting my laptop out and opening it and logging in feels like too much for a lot of things, and I’m glad that I can use my phone to tap out a short email while half paying attention to my lunch, commuting, etc sometimes. Maybe when they can shoot photons directly into my cornea without an intrusive set of goggles that take me out of the real world.
  - skydhash 3y ago
    I keep hoping for an expanse experience. Where computing is truly connected (standards and fast wireless transfers). Apple ecosystem is moving towards this but they are so closed it feels more like autobus than bicycle for the mind. Linux is still not an option on the phone form factor. And the hardware are still very opaque.
dkjaudyeqooe 3y ago
Having something strapped to your face, that you have to put on and take off, is never going to be a substitute for working in open space unhindered.
- 8n4vidtmkvmk 3y ago
  Why's that? They can get the weight down to barely more than glasses, and with good pass through video and battery improvements... You'll be pretty unencumbered. Certainly not more encumbered than being glued to your laptop on a desk.
  - dkjaudyeqooe 3y ago
    Well it's hard to debate fantasy products given the circularity: "if they create a product that avoids all these problems, then it won't be a problem!". I've not used a laptop (or computer) at a desk for decades, I prefer lying down, which works really well. I do wish there was something between a laptop and a phone though. Interfaces need to improve or innovate, but I don't think VR headsets are the answer. I haven't even touched on the nausea.
    - 8n4vidtmkvmk 3y ago
      I don't think it's a circular argument. Bigscreen VR is already 127 grams. This is doable in the next decade I think. The question is if there's a better form factor than something you wear on your face.
      - lolinder 3y ago
        Bigscreen VR appears to be an accessory that relies on an external device for compute and head tracking and power. As far as I can see it's basically just a tiny OLED display you strap to your face. With AVP, Apple is taking a bet that the accessory nature of previous attempts is why this product category failed and so they're trying to embed the compute and make it wireless. Unfortunately for utopian visions of VR goggles, we're running up against the limit on how small computers can be, so the idea of a standalone headset as light as Bigscreen VR is essentially science fiction at this point. Not to say it won't happen, but if that's what it'll take for this product category to take off then your optimism is misplaced.
tw04 3y ago
There will be an inflection point where you’ll want all of your media to be 3D. Things you watch today in 2D you’ll want in 3D and then your old 2D television will seem like a relic of the past. The entire industry is onboard, the shift is inevitable.
- eptcyka 3y ago
  The production costs of creating 3D content that is actually making use of the extra dimension will be cost prohibitive for lots of types of content where 2d is used today. I really wouldn't care much for lots of YouTube content I watch being provided in 3d, half of it I already just listen to. As an example, look at how much more detail needs to be added to a room in a VR game versus a standard 3D game - since you have more freedom to poke around and look at things from more angles, stick your head in things, the expected level of detail is much higher. Just adding VR to existing games can make for a good experience, but VR native content will be more expensive to produce.
- makeitdouble 3y ago
  That would be reasonable if there past inflections similar to that were we wanted all our media to move to the higher "dimension". For instance we've seen the arrival of movies and tv, books became moving visual content, games expanded from boards to immersive experiences etc. But the lower dimension media never disappeared nor significantly got irrelevant. We're effectively reading more words per day than any of the previous generation, podcasts are booming, web comics etc. are thriving. TV and movies were just an addition to the media landscape, I see AR and VR in the same light.
pompino 3y ago
I think we're socially primed for it right now - at-least here in the US. Unlike other cultures where you're living with a large family or extended family or your parents, etc, life in the US is getting to be more and more solitary (IRL, people are still forming social connections online) for young people. That makes it very easy to adopt this type of tech. In other cultures wearing it around the house will just make you look like a weirdo.

steve1977 3y ago

if putting on the Vision Pro is as fast and seamless as grabbing a tablet or opening up your laptop I guess.

bryanrasmussen 3y ago
when it's a pair of sunglasses with the Facial Studio Code already opened to your project, in other words.
- 8n4vidtmkvmk 3y ago
  Too bad "Visual" is already taken.. maybe Vision Studio Code.

Turskarama 3y ago

Here's my prediction for this: you need to have input with the same fidelity and ease of use as a mouse and keyboard. The mouse input analogy is probably pretty close with eye tracking, but text input? I can't even imagine what it will look like to make that work as nicely as real touch typing.

tiagod 3y ago
You can use a macbook keyboard and trackpad seamlessly with the headset
WanderPanda 3y ago
It will probably look like a keyboard. Keyboards are so lindy at this point they didn’t even adjust the layout (from that path-dependent mess we are dealing with), let alone the form factor
nilkn 3y ago
I got an acrylic tray [0] that holds a keyboard and trackpad and can comfortably sit on my lap to use with the Vision Pro. It’s truly marvelous and makes the VP feel like an actual laptop replacement, with the only real problem being that visionOS has too much iPadOS heritage and not enough MacOS. [0] https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CCS71K6P?psc=1&ref=ppx_yo2ov_dt_b_product_details https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CCS71K6P?psc=1&ref=ppx_yo2ov_dt_...
- Turskarama 3y ago
  Sure, but one of the big upsides of vr is the ability to move around a space. If you're just sitting at a desk (or on a couch) anyway then you might as well just have a couple of huge monitors. In the case of the vision pro it would even be cheaper to use several large monitors instead.
  - nilkn 3y ago
    The ability to move around while I’m actively wearing it is not particularly compelling or relevant to me. I didn’t get it for room-scale VR games, and I tend to take it off when I get up anyway. I find it really amazing that I can set up a huge workspace on-the-fly pretty much wherever I want, including the couch. I have a very slick dedicated home office I could be in right now but I actually enjoy using the VP from the living room more for anything other than serious 9-5 work for my employer.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

lolinder 3y ago

There might be an inflection point like what you describe. It's also entirely possible that this is an evolutionary dead end like the voice interfaces that were the Next Big Thing a few years ago. We've grown so accustomed to viewing technology as a steady progression of improvements that it seems natural that the thing that Apple is pushing today will be universal in 10 years, but there's no guarantee of that, and there are reasons to be skeptical that we'll look back at this as the next big leap. For myself, I'm keeping my eye out for technology that is less intrusive into the rest of my life, not more immersive.

eloisius 3y ago
My thoughts exactly. There are almost no things I do on a daily basis where I want to go through a cognitively expensive process of changing modes into an immersive experience. Even getting my laptop out and opening it and logging in feels like too much for a lot of things, and I’m glad that I can use my phone to tap out a short email while half paying attention to my lunch, commuting, etc sometimes. Maybe when they can shoot photons directly into my cornea without an intrusive set of goggles that take me out of the real world.
- skydhash 3y ago
  I keep hoping for an expanse experience. Where computing is truly connected (standards and fast wireless transfers). Apple ecosystem is moving towards this but they are so closed it feels more like autobus than bicycle for the mind. Linux is still not an option on the phone form factor. And the hardware are still very opaque.

dkjaudyeqooe 3y ago

Having something strapped to your face, that you have to put on and take off, is never going to be a substitute for working in open space unhindered.

8n4vidtmkvmk 3y ago
Why's that? They can get the weight down to barely more than glasses, and with good pass through video and battery improvements... You'll be pretty unencumbered. Certainly not more encumbered than being glued to your laptop on a desk.
- dkjaudyeqooe 3y ago
  Well it's hard to debate fantasy products given the circularity: "if they create a product that avoids all these problems, then it won't be a problem!". I've not used a laptop (or computer) at a desk for decades, I prefer lying down, which works really well. I do wish there was something between a laptop and a phone though. Interfaces need to improve or innovate, but I don't think VR headsets are the answer. I haven't even touched on the nausea.
  - 8n4vidtmkvmk 3y ago
    I don't think it's a circular argument. Bigscreen VR is already 127 grams. This is doable in the next decade I think. The question is if there's a better form factor than something you wear on your face.
    - lolinder 3y ago
      Bigscreen VR appears to be an accessory that relies on an external device for compute and head tracking and power. As far as I can see it's basically just a tiny OLED display you strap to your face. With AVP, Apple is taking a bet that the accessory nature of previous attempts is why this product category failed and so they're trying to embed the compute and make it wireless. Unfortunately for utopian visions of VR goggles, we're running up against the limit on how small computers can be, so the idea of a standalone headset as light as Bigscreen VR is essentially science fiction at this point. Not to say it won't happen, but if that's what it'll take for this product category to take off then your optimism is misplaced.

tw04 3y ago

There will be an inflection point where you’ll want all of your media to be 3D. Things you watch today in 2D you’ll want in 3D and then your old 2D television will seem like a relic of the past. The entire industry is onboard, the shift is inevitable.

eptcyka 3y ago
The production costs of creating 3D content that is actually making use of the extra dimension will be cost prohibitive for lots of types of content where 2d is used today. I really wouldn't care much for lots of YouTube content I watch being provided in 3d, half of it I already just listen to. As an example, look at how much more detail needs to be added to a room in a VR game versus a standard 3D game - since you have more freedom to poke around and look at things from more angles, stick your head in things, the expected level of detail is much higher. Just adding VR to existing games can make for a good experience, but VR native content will be more expensive to produce.
makeitdouble 3y ago
That would be reasonable if there past inflections similar to that were we wanted all our media to move to the higher "dimension". For instance we've seen the arrival of movies and tv, books became moving visual content, games expanded from boards to immersive experiences etc. But the lower dimension media never disappeared nor significantly got irrelevant. We're effectively reading more words per day than any of the previous generation, podcasts are booming, web comics etc. are thriving. TV and movies were just an addition to the media landscape, I see AR and VR in the same light.

pompino 3y ago

I think we're socially primed for it right now - at-least here in the US. Unlike other cultures where you're living with a large family or extended family or your parents, etc, life in the US is getting to be more and more solitary (IRL, people are still forming social connections online) for young people. That makes it very easy to adopt this type of tech. In other cultures wearing it around the house will just make you look like a weirdo.