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AI Hype. Same applies to NVidia(40x sales valuation! The pickaxe seller). Their technology can be easily replicated given enough time, just look at open source

AI Hype. Same applies to NVidia(40x sales valuation! The pickaxe seller). Their technology can be easily replicated given enough time, just look at open source LLMs already beating GPT3. Google, Claude and others showing their strengths, already par to GPT-4 and even better in some scenarios. Training is expensive, but it isn't expensive up to what they are valued at. It's good because that capital likely made a few folks rich enough that they can consider pursuing their own companies, I'm curious about this. I find it hard to believe the current products OpenAI offers will have good revenue streams given to how competition is catching up, low pricing power and how specialized deep learning typically beats LLMs or most of the things they offer. I had even higher expectations when I saw this beginning, hoping that AI Startups would be able to do things that were previously not scalable with LLMs or OpenAI APIs, but haven't been able to see much here. The biggest winner on this play was clearly Microsoft, that managed to create a new product line, both with Github Copilot and Copilot to sell to businesses.

gmerc 3y ago
If NVIDIA could be easily replicated, Intel would have done it.
- thiago_fm 3y ago
  Given enough time they will and won't be able to get 70%+ margins for their hardware. There are multiple initiatives to eat their lunch which is based on Cuda.Their advantage isn't even in hardware, but rather how they've invested years and years in having integrated software + hardware solution for AI.
  - j7ake 3y ago
    “Given enough time” assumes competition will catch up while leader stays idle. If leader is still innovating at a pace greater than any competition, then competition will never catch up.
    - bamboozled 3y ago
      This is assuming everything continues in the same direction the dominating company is innovating in though right? Maybe AI is here forever, maybe there are different approaches that will blindside them?
    - qwytw 3y ago
      ATM as far as as datacenter GPUs good the price/performance is the only metric that counts (power costs are almost insignificant relative to how much a H100/etc. costs). So Intel only needs to come up with something relative cheap that's good enough (it can easily use > 4 times more power to perform the same task) to force Nvidia to cut their insane margins.
  - healthdare 3y ago
    Your idea of "easy" is stupid. Possible yes easy , no. And all that money they spend to catchup just to find Nvidia used that time to RD the next step. At this level it's a patent game. Also at this level the companies literally employ the best in their field. The best out of 8 billion. Replicating talent is impossible.
  - gmerc 3y ago
    There’s many hot takes like this, most of which ignore the bottlenecks in the supply chain.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
jasfi 3y ago
With what Google are doing with Gemini, OpenAI are in danger of losing the LLM crown. I think they'll still have a solid brand, but perhaps not the best at anything. The competition in AI is too ferocious. But the first mover advantage they had will likely have very long-term benefits.
- glimshe 3y ago
  I tried the latest and greatest Gemini. In a few tasks I gave it, it did well but was clearly beaten by ChatGPT 4 (in some cases 3.5). It's still 1-2 years behind.
  - jasfi 3y ago
    Was that 1.5 Pro?
    - sidibe 3y ago
      No. I don't think even the paid Gemini available now is behind ChatGPT4 for the things I use them for. People will be rooting for Google to lose this race but I think it's wishful thinking they were always too well positioned not to catch up and they've already done it IMO. Whatever they lack in ability to make products is trumped by their infra + how game changing this stuff is so they were never going to just drop it even if it was just for internal use
plaidfuji 3y ago
> I find it hard to believe the current products OpenAI offers will have good revenue streams given to how competition is catching up I have a hard time believing LLM products have good revenue streams at all, regardless of who’s making it. I still don’t use ChatGPT for anything. I think the developer world is obsessed with how well it generates code, but even that I don’t get the sense is worth $80B. I don’t find that feature to be extraordinarily useful, but I guess there are some codebases where it is? I don’t see the value-add applications outside of that. It’s not a search engine despite much hand-wringing about that. The whole document summarization / “style assistant” thing is a neat trick that might come in handy a few times a year. Chatbot girlfriends? Always money in porn I guess. Customer assistance bots? Annoying screen-waster. Writing internal emails? If you’re using it for that I’m sorry for you. Will anyone pay a standalone subscription fee for these in the long run or are they just flashy features to bake into existing products? Maybe it’s because my knee-jerk response to hype of any kind is to apply extra doubt / scrutiny, idk.

gmerc 3y ago

If NVIDIA could be easily replicated, Intel would have done it.

thiago_fm 3y ago
Given enough time they will and won't be able to get 70%+ margins for their hardware. There are multiple initiatives to eat their lunch which is based on Cuda.Their advantage isn't even in hardware, but rather how they've invested years and years in having integrated software + hardware solution for AI.
- j7ake 3y ago
  “Given enough time” assumes competition will catch up while leader stays idle. If leader is still innovating at a pace greater than any competition, then competition will never catch up.
  - bamboozled 3y ago
    This is assuming everything continues in the same direction the dominating company is innovating in though right? Maybe AI is here forever, maybe there are different approaches that will blindside them?
  - qwytw 3y ago
    ATM as far as as datacenter GPUs good the price/performance is the only metric that counts (power costs are almost insignificant relative to how much a H100/etc. costs). So Intel only needs to come up with something relative cheap that's good enough (it can easily use > 4 times more power to perform the same task) to force Nvidia to cut their insane margins.
- healthdare 3y ago
  Your idea of "easy" is stupid. Possible yes easy , no. And all that money they spend to catchup just to find Nvidia used that time to RD the next step. At this level it's a patent game. Also at this level the companies literally employ the best in their field. The best out of 8 billion. Replicating talent is impossible.
- gmerc 3y ago
  There’s many hot takes like this, most of which ignore the bottlenecks in the supply chain.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

jasfi 3y ago

With what Google are doing with Gemini, OpenAI are in danger of losing the LLM crown. I think they'll still have a solid brand, but perhaps not the best at anything. The competition in AI is too ferocious. But the first mover advantage they had will likely have very long-term benefits.

glimshe 3y ago
I tried the latest and greatest Gemini. In a few tasks I gave it, it did well but was clearly beaten by ChatGPT 4 (in some cases 3.5). It's still 1-2 years behind.
- jasfi 3y ago
  Was that 1.5 Pro?
  - sidibe 3y ago
    No. I don't think even the paid Gemini available now is behind ChatGPT4 for the things I use them for. People will be rooting for Google to lose this race but I think it's wishful thinking they were always too well positioned not to catch up and they've already done it IMO. Whatever they lack in ability to make products is trumped by their infra + how game changing this stuff is so they were never going to just drop it even if it was just for internal use

plaidfuji 3y ago

> I find it hard to believe the current products OpenAI offers will have good revenue streams given to how competition is catching up I have a hard time believing LLM products have good revenue streams at all, regardless of who’s making it. I still don’t use ChatGPT for anything. I think the developer world is obsessed with how well it generates code, but even that I don’t get the sense is worth $80B. I don’t find that feature to be extraordinarily useful, but I guess there are some codebases where it is? I don’t see the value-add applications outside of that. It’s not a search engine despite much hand-wringing about that. The whole document summarization / “style assistant” thing is a neat trick that might come in handy a few times a year. Chatbot girlfriends? Always money in porn I guess. Customer assistance bots? Annoying screen-waster. Writing internal emails? If you’re using it for that I’m sorry for you. Will anyone pay a standalone subscription fee for these in the long run or are they just flashy features to bake into existing products? Maybe it’s because my knee-jerk response to hype of any kind is to apply extra doubt / scrutiny, idk.