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> Countries like Poland will no longer buy US weapons but increase European defense spending - they fear just like Ukraine that US congress just turns around an

> Countries like Poland will no longer buy US weapons but increase European defense spending - they fear just like Ukraine that US congress just turns around and will stop delivering parts for F-35s in a conflict That's absolutely not the sentiments among Poles. If anything, there's a belief we can only rely on US when poo hits the fan.

belter 3y ago
Looking at it historically, you are going to be short changed again... Suddenly the following scenario, is not far fetched anymore: Russia will find an excuse around Kaliningrad Oblast, and a NATO hostile US president will negotiate a cease fire in the name of stopping a Nuclear conflict...
- Wytwwww 3y ago
  To be fair modern Russia is not exactly the USSR or Nazi Germany (let alone both of them put together). Their army was decimated (huge understatement) in Ukraine. Their demographic situation was pretty bad before the war. But now? If you combine the massive casualties (more than the US lost in Vietnam during over 15 years AND the Soviet war in Afghanistan (10 years)) with the exodus of working age males how can they ever recover? It's an extremely cynical take but US + EU can pretty much afford to "wage" this war indefinitely as long they give just enough to Ukraine for it not to collapse and both sides continue throwing their men into the grinder. Russia is on a timer; it might take an extra few years and even if they don't run out of shells they'll run out of soldiers sooner or later (of course unfortunately the same applies to Ukraine..).
KingOfCoders 3y ago
As I've said, when the Suwałki Gap falls and the US stands by - and the US will under Trump - sentiments will turn 180°. Poland hoped the UK would safe them from Germany and Russia and was betrayed. Poland now hopes the US would safe them from Russia, and they will be betrayed.
- selimthegrim 3y ago
  Trump can forget about the upper Midwest Polish vote then
  - disgruntledphd2 3y ago
    Once he's President then he probably won't care.
    - shagie 3y ago
      "Once"? "Probably"? https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/13/politics/fact-check-trump-nato/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/13/politics/fact-check-trump-nat... He hasn't cared previously, and more recently... https://apnews.com/article/trump-backlash-nato-funding-russia-ukraine-796f245e06d1a0f314e3b4bfdb793cc0 https://apnews.com/article/trump-backlash-nato-funding-russi... > Speaking at a campaign rally in South Carolina, he retold the story of his alleged conversation with the head of a NATO member country that had not met its obligations. This time, though, he left out the line that drew the most outrage — encouraging Russia “to do whatever the hell they want.” > “Look, if they’re not going to pay, we’re not going to protect. OK?” he said Wednesday.
      - disgruntledphd2 3y ago
        With respect to the Polish midwest voters, given that it'll be his last term he definitely won't care about them anymore.
- hackandthink 3y ago
  There is a name for it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_betrayal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_betrayal
- Wytwwww 3y ago
  > UK would safe them from Germany and Russia and was betrayed The balance of power is not even remotely similar to what it was back in 1939. Even if we ignore the economy and armament production modern Russia has severe demographic issues it barely has enough manpower to wage a full-scale war in Ukraine (considering the massive casualty rate, more in a single year than US lost during the 15 years in Vietnam and Russia has many times smaller conscriptable population than the US had back then). How could they ever open a "second front" in the Baltics? Back in 1940 the allies were extremely underprepared materially (mainly the British, the French had an army that could certainly compete with Germany on paper, but they were much too conservative (and in hindsight run by incompetent morons)). It's not like they consciously decided to just abandon Poland outright, the allies expected it to hold out much longer and very way too slow and indecisive to do anything. Then they somehow managed to lose Norway against all odds and the same thing repeated in France. Stuff like that simply can't happen in modern warfare (as the Russian attempt to capture Kiev has proven)..

belter 3y ago

Looking at it historically, you are going to be short changed again... Suddenly the following scenario, is not far fetched anymore: Russia will find an excuse around Kaliningrad Oblast, and a NATO hostile US president will negotiate a cease fire in the name of stopping a Nuclear conflict...

Wytwwww 3y ago
To be fair modern Russia is not exactly the USSR or Nazi Germany (let alone both of them put together). Their army was decimated (huge understatement) in Ukraine. Their demographic situation was pretty bad before the war. But now? If you combine the massive casualties (more than the US lost in Vietnam during over 15 years AND the Soviet war in Afghanistan (10 years)) with the exodus of working age males how can they ever recover? It's an extremely cynical take but US + EU can pretty much afford to "wage" this war indefinitely as long they give just enough to Ukraine for it not to collapse and both sides continue throwing their men into the grinder. Russia is on a timer; it might take an extra few years and even if they don't run out of shells they'll run out of soldiers sooner or later (of course unfortunately the same applies to Ukraine..).

KingOfCoders 3y ago

As I've said, when the Suwałki Gap falls and the US stands by - and the US will under Trump - sentiments will turn 180°. Poland hoped the UK would safe them from Germany and Russia and was betrayed. Poland now hopes the US would safe them from Russia, and they will be betrayed.

selimthegrim 3y ago
Trump can forget about the upper Midwest Polish vote then
- disgruntledphd2 3y ago
  Once he's President then he probably won't care.
  - shagie 3y ago
    "Once"? "Probably"? https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/13/politics/fact-check-trump-nato/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/13/politics/fact-check-trump-nat... He hasn't cared previously, and more recently... https://apnews.com/article/trump-backlash-nato-funding-russia-ukraine-796f245e06d1a0f314e3b4bfdb793cc0 https://apnews.com/article/trump-backlash-nato-funding-russi... > Speaking at a campaign rally in South Carolina, he retold the story of his alleged conversation with the head of a NATO member country that had not met its obligations. This time, though, he left out the line that drew the most outrage — encouraging Russia “to do whatever the hell they want.” > “Look, if they’re not going to pay, we’re not going to protect. OK?” he said Wednesday.
    - disgruntledphd2 3y ago
      With respect to the Polish midwest voters, given that it'll be his last term he definitely won't care about them anymore.
hackandthink 3y ago
There is a name for it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_betrayal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_betrayal
Wytwwww 3y ago
> UK would safe them from Germany and Russia and was betrayed The balance of power is not even remotely similar to what it was back in 1939. Even if we ignore the economy and armament production modern Russia has severe demographic issues it barely has enough manpower to wage a full-scale war in Ukraine (considering the massive casualty rate, more in a single year than US lost during the 15 years in Vietnam and Russia has many times smaller conscriptable population than the US had back then). How could they ever open a "second front" in the Baltics? Back in 1940 the allies were extremely underprepared materially (mainly the British, the French had an army that could certainly compete with Germany on paper, but they were much too conservative (and in hindsight run by incompetent morons)). It's not like they consciously decided to just abandon Poland outright, the allies expected it to hold out much longer and very way too slow and indecisive to do anything. Then they somehow managed to lose Norway against all odds and the same thing repeated in France. Stuff like that simply can't happen in modern warfare (as the Russian attempt to capture Kiev has proven)..