5 ms·

If regulation is needed to force the existence of electric cars around the 20k mark, that means nobody wants to buy them now

topaz0 3y ago
It's amazing to me that people still believe markets work in 2024.
- TheLoafOfBread 3y ago
  If it would be working, BEVs would not be a thing.
- FredPret 3y ago
  How can something as dead simple as a market not work? Things are offered for sale, and then people buy the things. As long as there are transactions, it’s working. Now, is the market efficient / globally optimal? No. Welcome to complex reality.
rozap 3y ago
If energy just cost what it actually cost (no fossil fuel subsidies) the rest would follow. The market distortion from gas subsidies has caused this mess, we didn't get to everyone driving a 5000 pound vehicle due to the free market. We got here because of backwards laws and automaker's exploitation of said laws. Fuel or electricity should cost what it costs. Vehicles need to be taxed according to their externalities. Heavier vehicles have more externalities. Road maintenance, pollution, traffic injuries and fatalities to name a few. I think if we did these things we'd trend back towards reasonable vehicles over time, and that would be a big net win.
- nonethewiser 3y ago
  What fossil fuel subsidies are you referring to?
  - ceejayoz 3y ago
    https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/global-fossil-fuel-subsidies-rise-despite-calls-phase-out-2023-11-23/ https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/global-fossil-f... > U.S. fossil fuel subsidies stretch across the U.S. tax code, which makes detailing their costs complex. The IMF estimates they stood at $760 billion in 2022, a figure topped only by China.
    - nonethewiser 3y ago
      I wouldn't consider the government not taking their money a subsidy. A subsidy would be the government giving them money. There are drilling specific tax breaks but it's similar to other industry specific R&D tax breaks like agriculture and tech.
      - ceejayoz 3y ago
        "It's like these other highly subsidized industries" doesn't make it not a subsidy. "We will tax you less than other people" is absolutely a form of subsidy.
        nonethewiser 3y ago
        I feel like we’re really stretching the term. People don’t normally say the government is subsidizing their income because the standard deduction exists. Phrasing it this way also just begets that tax deductions are subsidies: “It's like these other highly subsidized industries.” Its rephrasing your conclusion rather than making some new point.
- throwway120385 3y ago
  A good thing to campaign for is revision of the EPA rules that exempt light trucks from certain mileage rules, or the ones that increase the allowable fuel consumption based on the wheelbase of the vehicle. This is one of the major drivers increasing the size of vehicles in the US, as I understand it.
  - rozap 3y ago
    Yes, it's very backwards.
- FredPret 3y ago
  I agree - I’m not sure if there’s a simple and robust way to set up a carbon tax, but in theory it would naturally push CO2 down over time.
kibwen 3y ago
We are buying them. In the US, sales of e-bikes surpassed sales of electric cars in 2022.
- FredPret 3y ago
  Interesting point although ebikes are a slightly different niche. I bet most e bike owners also have a car. They certainly make very short trips 10x easier and more fun though.
thfuran 3y ago
How do you figure?
- FredPret 3y ago
  For 20k, you can deliver a certain level of EV. Features, size, performance, looks. If there was a big enough market for that EV at 20k to make production practical, car companies would make them in an effort to maximize profit. But Americans have a lot of money and a lot of space and want big vehicles; EVs are more expensive to produce, so it’s the rich people that want EVs. And those people aren’t going to buy a little toy box.
  - thfuran 3y ago
    >car companies would make them in an effort to maximize profit That might make sense if the only two options were "make nothing" and "make EVs to sell for 20k". In the presence of other options, however, the manufacturer might decide that that's not the optimal strategy. Or existing regulations, tariffs, or subsidies might be distorting the market. Automobiles are probably one of the least-free markets this side of pacemakers.
    - FredPret 3y ago
      Fair, but a lot of the regulations are safety related and people would probably vote for those regulations directly if they could. So a 20k EV probably just involves too many compromises to make it a winning proposition for both the buyer and the seller.

topaz0 3y ago

It's amazing to me that people still believe markets work in 2024.

TheLoafOfBread 3y ago
If it would be working, BEVs would not be a thing.
FredPret 3y ago
How can something as dead simple as a market not work? Things are offered for sale, and then people buy the things. As long as there are transactions, it’s working. Now, is the market efficient / globally optimal? No. Welcome to complex reality.

rozap 3y ago

If energy just cost what it actually cost (no fossil fuel subsidies) the rest would follow. The market distortion from gas subsidies has caused this mess, we didn't get to everyone driving a 5000 pound vehicle due to the free market. We got here because of backwards laws and automaker's exploitation of said laws. Fuel or electricity should cost what it costs. Vehicles need to be taxed according to their externalities. Heavier vehicles have more externalities. Road maintenance, pollution, traffic injuries and fatalities to name a few. I think if we did these things we'd trend back towards reasonable vehicles over time, and that would be a big net win.

nonethewiser 3y ago
What fossil fuel subsidies are you referring to?
- ceejayoz 3y ago
  https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/global-fossil-fuel-subsidies-rise-despite-calls-phase-out-2023-11-23/ https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/global-fossil-f... > U.S. fossil fuel subsidies stretch across the U.S. tax code, which makes detailing their costs complex. The IMF estimates they stood at $760 billion in 2022, a figure topped only by China.
  - nonethewiser 3y ago
    I wouldn't consider the government not taking their money a subsidy. A subsidy would be the government giving them money. There are drilling specific tax breaks but it's similar to other industry specific R&D tax breaks like agriculture and tech.
    - ceejayoz 3y ago
      "It's like these other highly subsidized industries" doesn't make it not a subsidy. "We will tax you less than other people" is absolutely a form of subsidy.
      - nonethewiser 3y ago
        I feel like we’re really stretching the term. People don’t normally say the government is subsidizing their income because the standard deduction exists. Phrasing it this way also just begets that tax deductions are subsidies: “It's like these other highly subsidized industries.” Its rephrasing your conclusion rather than making some new point.
throwway120385 3y ago
A good thing to campaign for is revision of the EPA rules that exempt light trucks from certain mileage rules, or the ones that increase the allowable fuel consumption based on the wheelbase of the vehicle. This is one of the major drivers increasing the size of vehicles in the US, as I understand it.
- rozap 3y ago
  Yes, it's very backwards.
FredPret 3y ago
I agree - I’m not sure if there’s a simple and robust way to set up a carbon tax, but in theory it would naturally push CO2 down over time.

kibwen 3y ago

We are buying them. In the US, sales of e-bikes surpassed sales of electric cars in 2022.

FredPret 3y ago
Interesting point although ebikes are a slightly different niche. I bet most e bike owners also have a car. They certainly make very short trips 10x easier and more fun though.

thfuran 3y ago

How do you figure?

FredPret 3y ago
For 20k, you can deliver a certain level of EV. Features, size, performance, looks. If there was a big enough market for that EV at 20k to make production practical, car companies would make them in an effort to maximize profit. But Americans have a lot of money and a lot of space and want big vehicles; EVs are more expensive to produce, so it’s the rich people that want EVs. And those people aren’t going to buy a little toy box.
- thfuran 3y ago
  >car companies would make them in an effort to maximize profit That might make sense if the only two options were "make nothing" and "make EVs to sell for 20k". In the presence of other options, however, the manufacturer might decide that that's not the optimal strategy. Or existing regulations, tariffs, or subsidies might be distorting the market. Automobiles are probably one of the least-free markets this side of pacemakers.
  - FredPret 3y ago
    Fair, but a lot of the regulations are safety related and people would probably vote for those regulations directly if they could. So a 20k EV probably just involves too many compromises to make it a winning proposition for both the buyer and the seller.