4 ms·

Listening to finance and VC podcasts it seems to me quite clear there is a bubble brewing. They are all repeating the same mantras and convincing themselves of

by rapsey 3y ago

Listening to finance and VC podcasts it seems to me quite clear there is a bubble brewing. They are all repeating the same mantras and convincing themselves of a new gold rush. The financial side is convinced developers are 10x as productive with copilot and AI tools. They are and will increasingly be forcing CTOs to get on the copilot bandwagon or risk getting fired. The tech companies are not likely to get fooled, but your average non-tech S&P 500 company is going to be giving MS a fortune. AI companies are getting funded with hundreds of millions/billions with no realistic path to making money (mistral, anthropic, huggingface). The only one making money is nVidia and MS. nVidia, MS and others are frankly committing clear fraud with round tripping money and making a killing. When there is billions being spent on ventures with no business model we are repeating the dotcom bubble. I bet it is going to last a while yet though so plenty of money to be made before the inevitable.

MattGaiser 3y ago
> The financial side is convinced developers are 10x as productive with copilot and AI tools. The opportunity is bigger. It isn't 10x existing developers, but making everyone 3-5x as productive by turning everyone into someone able to automate a basic system. AI could tackle pretty much every knowledge job in the lowest tier of a job pyramid.
IshKebab 3y ago
I don't think copilot makes you 10x more productive. Anyone who has used it can tell you that's nonsense. 30% more productive is way more realistic, but even 30% is clearly worth it from a financial point of view. If you're a company the only reason you should have for not buying Copilot for all your employees is legal concerns, which are definitely still not resolved. Once they are though it's going to be pure masochism to not use Copilot (or similar). Like not paying for CI, or not using Git, or not using an IDE. You can totally still do it but you're going to suffer compared to the competition.
- rapsey 3y ago
  Of course it does not, but people in finance do not understand engineering. And the C suite needs to make AI plans or wallstreet is going to punish them.
guappa 3y ago
Consider that opinion on podcasts are easily on sale. It says nothing of what companies will actually do. And I think any legal department worth their value might want to veto it since there are ample unanswered questions about who owns the copyright afterwards. Microsoft claims one thing… but their contract also puts the blame for Microsoft being wrong on the customer, so I don't think they are very confident about it.
- rapsey 3y ago
  > It says nothing of what companies will actually do. Wallstreet rewards any company with AI plans. It is clear what the C suite will do. There will be no legal issue except for some very specific paranoid companies. Plenty of them host their code in private github repos and manufacture in China. It is all standard practice. Generally nothing is kept that close to heart.

by rapsey 3y ago

MattGaiser 3y ago

> The financial side is convinced developers are 10x as productive with copilot and AI tools. The opportunity is bigger. It isn't 10x existing developers, but making everyone 3-5x as productive by turning everyone into someone able to automate a basic system. AI could tackle pretty much every knowledge job in the lowest tier of a job pyramid.

IshKebab 3y ago

I don't think copilot makes you 10x more productive. Anyone who has used it can tell you that's nonsense. 30% more productive is way more realistic, but even 30% is clearly worth it from a financial point of view. If you're a company the only reason you should have for not buying Copilot for all your employees is legal concerns, which are definitely still not resolved. Once they are though it's going to be pure masochism to not use Copilot (or similar). Like not paying for CI, or not using Git, or not using an IDE. You can totally still do it but you're going to suffer compared to the competition.

rapsey 3y ago
Of course it does not, but people in finance do not understand engineering. And the C suite needs to make AI plans or wallstreet is going to punish them.

guappa 3y ago

Consider that opinion on podcasts are easily on sale. It says nothing of what companies will actually do. And I think any legal department worth their value might want to veto it since there are ample unanswered questions about who owns the copyright afterwards. Microsoft claims one thing… but their contract also puts the blame for Microsoft being wrong on the customer, so I don't think they are very confident about it.

rapsey 3y ago
> It says nothing of what companies will actually do. Wallstreet rewards any company with AI plans. It is clear what the C suite will do. There will be no legal issue except for some very specific paranoid companies. Plenty of them host their code in private github repos and manufacture in China. It is all standard practice. Generally nothing is kept that close to heart.