5 ms·

In Brazil? In Australia ROI for solar is 3-5 years. Why do you think the discrepancy? Aircon? Grid prices?

by Affric 3y ago

toomuchtodo 3y ago
Brazil solar payback should be closer to 2-5 years. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=56200 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=56200
- seiferteric 3y ago
  For roof top solar? Can you give an example of some numbers? Around here in NorCal, would cost ~20k for a system, and would save maybe $2400 a year, so would be more like 8.3 years.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    US residential rooftop is wildly expensive compared to other countries due to soft costs ($3-$4/watt vs $1-2). California’s “unique” electric utility and solar policy approach doesn’t help. I put solar on a friend’s roof in Sydney Australia (their landlord’s specifically, due to a lease to purchase agreement) for under $1/watt.
    - seiferteric 3y ago
      I had wondered about that... I am actually contemplating installing my own solar from a kit, which costs about half as much.
    - dalyons 3y ago
      I have noticed this! But I dont get it. Construction labour in the US is generally much cheaper than in australia. In fact almost everything is cheaper in the US. Why is solar so much more expensive? whats in those "soft costs"?
      - joecool1029 3y ago
        > whats in those "soft costs"? In short: bureaucracy. Depends on state but electrical things and stuff attached to houses usually requires greasing the local municipality with permits, submitting a plan, and hiring licensed electricians that cost way more than a general contractor. It may even require presenting it for approval to a HOA or town committee (god forbid the house might be historic, then it's another committee) EDIT: My parents looked into it in NJ awhile back but their land is farm preserved and it's super restrictive on how much they can cover with a 'solar farm'. Also, it requires studies that prove it won't cast shadows or reflect onto neighboring properties. The township is extremely restrictive on what can be built anywhere (for example the center parts of it are mostly a deadzone for cellphones since the towers must only be installed on the border of the township).
        Affric 3y ago
        That doesn’t provide an answer to the comparative question. The level of bureaucracy in Australia would make most Americans think it a dystopia.
        toomuchtodo 3y ago
        https://youtu.be/_3Sfxxx9m5U https://youtu.be/_3Sfxxx9m5U ("Youtube: Why Solar Is Cheaper in Australia Than America")
      - jillesvangurp 3y ago
        Import regulations means Chinese equipment that you buy is a bit more expensive. The domestically produced stuff is not cheaper or better or that widely available. The rest is just a mix of bureaucracy, regulations, building codes, energy companies frustrating the whole process, etc. An additional factor is latitude. In Australia places like Sydney and Brisbane, are a lot closer to the equator than most of the US. San Diego is about comparable (well slightly closer) with Melbourne in how close it is to the equator. So, they'd be getting a bit more out of their panels even in the middle of their winter. I'm in Germany, most of the country is about ten degrees further north than most of the US. People put solar on their roofs here because it works and there are some incentives. So, it's not that big of a factor. But if you add it all up, the US should be getting its solar a lot cheaper than it currently is.
  - andyferris 3y ago
    Off the top of my head, I thought US$20k would get you roof top solar plus a house battery in Australia. Which might have a longer ROI.
    - Affric 3y ago
      Part of the problem with batteries (apart from the tech) is that Australia has retreated from trying to get people to pay for their power and are resorting back to subsidy and cross subsidy for political reasons. Whether or not it’s a good thing is up for debate but it’s certainly harming battery ROI.
  - matheusmoreira 3y ago
    > For roof top solar? Yes. > Can you give an example of some numbers? Yes. I have a total of 23 solar panels with a maximum output of just over 1 MWh/month. The system cost around 34,000 BRL which is around 6,850 USD at current rates. Its expected lifetime is 25 years and it broke even in about three and half years. Current energy prices in USD/kWh varies between 0.15 and 0.17. The panels have been operating for about five years now and capacity has been expanded once already. They have generated a total of around 45 MWh. In 2023 output maxed out in November at 1.072 MWh and bottomed out in June at 396 kWh. The highest output ever recorded was 1.136 MWh in January 2021. I have no batteries. In Brazil there's no way to go 100% off the grid so I decided against the added maintenance complexity of batteries. Energy is injected directly into the grid in exchange for "kWh credits" which expire in one year if unused. I suppose their aim was to incentivize people to produce as much energy as they consume since it makes no financial sense accumulate surplus credits by producing more. I've considered expanding production capacity anyway and just converting the excess energy into cryptocurrency. They refuse to pay me so I'll just sink any surplus into miners instead of giving it to them for free. Haven't gotten around to actually doing it though.
    - brnt 3y ago
      > I have a total of 23 solar panels with a maximum output of nearly 1 megawatt. Panels do 400-500Wp these days. Times 23 gives a max of 11500W peak. You are off somewhere, or tell me right now where you got those panels.
      - matheusmoreira 3y ago
        You're right, sorry. That figure is energy output per month. Edited the post to make that clear. Added some extra statistics too from the monitoring software's report.
        applied_heat 3y ago
        So an average of 1.4kw/hr? 1000000W/mo / 30 day/mo / 24 hr/day = 1388
- fmobus 3y ago
  What's the regulatory situation for selling energy back to the grid? Friend of mine 10+ years ago in Porto Alegre opted for solar for water heating only, because there was no mechanism for net metering.
  - matheusmoreira 3y ago
    > What's the regulatory situation for selling energy back to the grid? You don't sell the energy. Well you kind of do, it's just that they don't pay you in real money. They pay you "kWh credits" which are theorized to offset your consumption in the winter months where solar energy production is lowest. The catch? Those credits expire in one year if unused. They do not accumulate. So brazilians are financially incentivized to produce as much energy as they consume only. Any energy surplus means giving energy away to the power company for free. Since solar energy production is variable, one also needs to be clever with forecasting in order to estimate highs and lows so that they compensate for each other. Make the summers pay for the winters. I suppose one could simply work around all that regulatory nonsense by not actually generating any credits in the first place. Build a small system that generates less than needed since that still means significant energy cost reductions. Alternatively, increase energy consumption. Air conditioners are god's gift to brazilians but there are only so many you can buy before you run out of rooms to install them in. So that leaves... Converting any surplus energy into cryptocurrency instead of injecting it into the grid. They won't pay us? We'll pay ourselves by mining monero.
    - Affric 3y ago
      > We'll pay ourselves by mining monero A policy which incentivises turning excess solar energy into one step above pure heat. Classic.
      - matheusmoreira 3y ago
        Well, it's solar energy. Pretty much as close to being pure heat as it gets. Completely wasted heat at that: before solar panels, all it did was heat up my home. In fact, I have to pay money every single day in order to run air conditioners to keep that heat out because otherwise it gets so hot I have a panic attack. The heat is actually harmful to me. With solar panels, I get to redirect that useless sun heat into those air conditioners. The result is more money in my wallet. It's perfect. Even if I were to mine cryptocurrency, it's still pure heat anyway. Sun's shining whether we want it or not. I'd just buy more panels so I can redirect more sun energy into computer chips instead of allowing it to uselessly heat up my backyard. Processors dissipating heat or backyard radiating away heat at night -- what's the difference? The system asked me for a hostname of sorts when I set it up. I named it "sun monetizer". Makes the sun useful for something. I used to hate the sun with every fiber of my being. Now I monetize it. The next step is realizing that cryptocurrencies make it possible to monetize the sun at industrial scales by serving as energy-to-money converters. Sun's gonna continue injecting heat into this earth whether we want it or not. Better make the most of it.

In Brazil? In Australia ROI for solar is 3-5 years. Why do you think the discrepancy? Aircon? Grid prices?

by Affric 3y ago

In Brazil? In Australia ROI for solar is 3-5 years. Why do you think the discrepancy? Aircon? Grid prices?

Brazil solar payback should be closer to 2-5 years. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=56200 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=56200

seiferteric 3y ago
For roof top solar? Can you give an example of some numbers? Around here in NorCal, would cost ~20k for a system, and would save maybe $2400 a year, so would be more like 8.3 years.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  US residential rooftop is wildly expensive compared to other countries due to soft costs ($3-$4/watt vs $1-2). California’s “unique” electric utility and solar policy approach doesn’t help. I put solar on a friend’s roof in Sydney Australia (their landlord’s specifically, due to a lease to purchase agreement) for under $1/watt.
  - seiferteric 3y ago
    I had wondered about that... I am actually contemplating installing my own solar from a kit, which costs about half as much.
  - dalyons 3y ago
    I have noticed this! But I dont get it. Construction labour in the US is generally much cheaper than in australia. In fact almost everything is cheaper in the US. Why is solar so much more expensive? whats in those "soft costs"?
    - joecool1029 3y ago
      > whats in those "soft costs"? In short: bureaucracy. Depends on state but electrical things and stuff attached to houses usually requires greasing the local municipality with permits, submitting a plan, and hiring licensed electricians that cost way more than a general contractor. It may even require presenting it for approval to a HOA or town committee (god forbid the house might be historic, then it's another committee) EDIT: My parents looked into it in NJ awhile back but their land is farm preserved and it's super restrictive on how much they can cover with a 'solar farm'. Also, it requires studies that prove it won't cast shadows or reflect onto neighboring properties. The township is extremely restrictive on what can be built anywhere (for example the center parts of it are mostly a deadzone for cellphones since the towers must only be installed on the border of the township).
      - Affric 3y ago
        That doesn’t provide an answer to the comparative question. The level of bureaucracy in Australia would make most Americans think it a dystopia.
        toomuchtodo 3y ago
        https://youtu.be/_3Sfxxx9m5U https://youtu.be/_3Sfxxx9m5U ("Youtube: Why Solar Is Cheaper in Australia Than America")
    - jillesvangurp 3y ago
      Import regulations means Chinese equipment that you buy is a bit more expensive. The domestically produced stuff is not cheaper or better or that widely available. The rest is just a mix of bureaucracy, regulations, building codes, energy companies frustrating the whole process, etc. An additional factor is latitude. In Australia places like Sydney and Brisbane, are a lot closer to the equator than most of the US. San Diego is about comparable (well slightly closer) with Melbourne in how close it is to the equator. So, they'd be getting a bit more out of their panels even in the middle of their winter. I'm in Germany, most of the country is about ten degrees further north than most of the US. People put solar on their roofs here because it works and there are some incentives. So, it's not that big of a factor. But if you add it all up, the US should be getting its solar a lot cheaper than it currently is.
- andyferris 3y ago
  Off the top of my head, I thought US$20k would get you roof top solar plus a house battery in Australia. Which might have a longer ROI.
  - Affric 3y ago
    Part of the problem with batteries (apart from the tech) is that Australia has retreated from trying to get people to pay for their power and are resorting back to subsidy and cross subsidy for political reasons. Whether or not it’s a good thing is up for debate but it’s certainly harming battery ROI.
- matheusmoreira 3y ago
  > For roof top solar? Yes. > Can you give an example of some numbers? Yes. I have a total of 23 solar panels with a maximum output of just over 1 MWh/month. The system cost around 34,000 BRL which is around 6,850 USD at current rates. Its expected lifetime is 25 years and it broke even in about three and half years. Current energy prices in USD/kWh varies between 0.15 and 0.17. The panels have been operating for about five years now and capacity has been expanded once already. They have generated a total of around 45 MWh. In 2023 output maxed out in November at 1.072 MWh and bottomed out in June at 396 kWh. The highest output ever recorded was 1.136 MWh in January 2021. I have no batteries. In Brazil there's no way to go 100% off the grid so I decided against the added maintenance complexity of batteries. Energy is injected directly into the grid in exchange for "kWh credits" which expire in one year if unused. I suppose their aim was to incentivize people to produce as much energy as they consume since it makes no financial sense accumulate surplus credits by producing more. I've considered expanding production capacity anyway and just converting the excess energy into cryptocurrency. They refuse to pay me so I'll just sink any surplus into miners instead of giving it to them for free. Haven't gotten around to actually doing it though.
  - brnt 3y ago
    > I have a total of 23 solar panels with a maximum output of nearly 1 megawatt. Panels do 400-500Wp these days. Times 23 gives a max of 11500W peak. You are off somewhere, or tell me right now where you got those panels.
    - matheusmoreira 3y ago
      You're right, sorry. That figure is energy output per month. Edited the post to make that clear. Added some extra statistics too from the monitoring software's report.
      - applied_heat 3y ago
        So an average of 1.4kw/hr? 1000000W/mo / 30 day/mo / 24 hr/day = 1388
fmobus 3y ago
What's the regulatory situation for selling energy back to the grid? Friend of mine 10+ years ago in Porto Alegre opted for solar for water heating only, because there was no mechanism for net metering.
- matheusmoreira 3y ago
  > What's the regulatory situation for selling energy back to the grid? You don't sell the energy. Well you kind of do, it's just that they don't pay you in real money. They pay you "kWh credits" which are theorized to offset your consumption in the winter months where solar energy production is lowest. The catch? Those credits expire in one year if unused. They do not accumulate. So brazilians are financially incentivized to produce as much energy as they consume only. Any energy surplus means giving energy away to the power company for free. Since solar energy production is variable, one also needs to be clever with forecasting in order to estimate highs and lows so that they compensate for each other. Make the summers pay for the winters. I suppose one could simply work around all that regulatory nonsense by not actually generating any credits in the first place. Build a small system that generates less than needed since that still means significant energy cost reductions. Alternatively, increase energy consumption. Air conditioners are god's gift to brazilians but there are only so many you can buy before you run out of rooms to install them in. So that leaves... Converting any surplus energy into cryptocurrency instead of injecting it into the grid. They won't pay us? We'll pay ourselves by mining monero.
  - Affric 3y ago
    > We'll pay ourselves by mining monero A policy which incentivises turning excess solar energy into one step above pure heat. Classic.
    - matheusmoreira 3y ago
      Well, it's solar energy. Pretty much as close to being pure heat as it gets. Completely wasted heat at that: before solar panels, all it did was heat up my home. In fact, I have to pay money every single day in order to run air conditioners to keep that heat out because otherwise it gets so hot I have a panic attack. The heat is actually harmful to me. With solar panels, I get to redirect that useless sun heat into those air conditioners. The result is more money in my wallet. It's perfect. Even if I were to mine cryptocurrency, it's still pure heat anyway. Sun's shining whether we want it or not. I'd just buy more panels so I can redirect more sun energy into computer chips instead of allowing it to uselessly heat up my backyard. Processors dissipating heat or backyard radiating away heat at night -- what's the difference? The system asked me for a hostname of sorts when I set it up. I named it "sun monetizer". Makes the sun useful for something. I used to hate the sun with every fiber of my being. Now I monetize it. The next step is realizing that cryptocurrencies make it possible to monetize the sun at industrial scales by serving as energy-to-money converters. Sun's gonna continue injecting heat into this earth whether we want it or not. Better make the most of it.