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What large US city has actually built enough housing to even match natural population growth in the last 25 years? More housing can only lower prices, in absol

What large US city has actually built enough housing to even match natural population growth in the last 25 years? More housing can only lower prices, in absolute terms, if it actually exceeds demand, but it still lowers prices compared to what they would have been had nothing been built, all else being equal. There is broad consensus among economists that it is stringent regulatory controls constraining supply that lead to higher housing prices - not building more housing.

seanmcdirmid 3y ago
Given that natural population growth has basically flatlined, I’m not sure what to take from that challenge. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/u-s-population-growth-has-nearly-flatlined-new-census-data-shows/ https://www.brookings.edu/articles/u-s-population-growth-has... If we look at the growth from 2000-2020, it basically went from 1% to .12%, so I guess we could use a step method to integrate (or just take population delta from 2024 to 1999 and subtract immigrants?). I don’t think we’ve grown that much, and growth is incredibly uneven. > There is broad consensus among economists that it is stringent regulatory controls constraining supply that lead to higher housing prices - not building more housing. People say things like this without backing it up. We get: > https://truthout.org/articles/big-real-estate-says-regulations-caused-housing-crisis-but-they-wrote-the-rules/ https://truthout.org/articles/big-real-estate-says-regulatio... “Big Real Estate Says Regulations Caused Housing Crisis, But They Wrote the Rules” But if you try to key in on specifically economists, they don’t say that. The fact that we have a global housing crisis, not just in America, seems to hint that something else is going on. Of course, we can build baby build Chinese style and wind up with 1.5 houses for every household, but that is probably a worse problem.
- Aloisius 3y ago
  Population growth since 2000 doesn't really affect the housing market today. Most of those people aren't old enough to be in the housing market. We're facing shortages caused by 40 years of building below the level of population growth.
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    So you mean growth in population from 1975 to 2000 as the 25 year window we should be looking at? We went through a property bust in the late 80s/early 90s due to Japan’s larger property bust and the S/L crisis, among having wicked recessions at the time.
  - cyberax 3y ago
    Wrong. We have more housing units per capita than in 80-s. It's just that the demand is forced into several large population centers.

seanmcdirmid 3y ago

Given that natural population growth has basically flatlined, I’m not sure what to take from that challenge. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/u-s-population-growth-has-nearly-flatlined-new-census-data-shows/ https://www.brookings.edu/articles/u-s-population-growth-has... If we look at the growth from 2000-2020, it basically went from 1% to .12%, so I guess we could use a step method to integrate (or just take population delta from 2024 to 1999 and subtract immigrants?). I don’t think we’ve grown that much, and growth is incredibly uneven. > There is broad consensus among economists that it is stringent regulatory controls constraining supply that lead to higher housing prices - not building more housing. People say things like this without backing it up. We get: > https://truthout.org/articles/big-real-estate-says-regulations-caused-housing-crisis-but-they-wrote-the-rules/ https://truthout.org/articles/big-real-estate-says-regulatio... “Big Real Estate Says Regulations Caused Housing Crisis, But They Wrote the Rules” But if you try to key in on specifically economists, they don’t say that. The fact that we have a global housing crisis, not just in America, seems to hint that something else is going on. Of course, we can build baby build Chinese style and wind up with 1.5 houses for every household, but that is probably a worse problem.

Aloisius 3y ago
Population growth since 2000 doesn't really affect the housing market today. Most of those people aren't old enough to be in the housing market. We're facing shortages caused by 40 years of building below the level of population growth.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  So you mean growth in population from 1975 to 2000 as the 25 year window we should be looking at? We went through a property bust in the late 80s/early 90s due to Japan’s larger property bust and the S/L crisis, among having wicked recessions at the time.
- cyberax 3y ago
  Wrong. We have more housing units per capita than in 80-s. It's just that the demand is forced into several large population centers.