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The fact that prices haven't increased noticeably sure seems like a sign that sanctions against Russia were largely toothless and their oil is making its way in
by _heimdall 3y ago
The fact that prices haven't increased noticeably sure seems like a sign that sanctions against Russia were largely toothless and their oil is making its way into the global supply all the same.
Russia is responsible for something like 12% of all global crude oil. If sanctions actually worked and global demand for oil went unchanged prices would have increased, likely quite a bit as the demand is very sticky and not likely to decrease quickly in response to prices.
Best I can tell, the temporary bump in prices in Europe were largely a factor of political plays making oil temporarily more scare while Russia and the oil industry adjusted. Prices are back down now because Russia and the oil industry found a new flow pattern to move Russian oil into the global supply.
- spqrr 3y agoThe sanctions are working. It's killing the German industry.
- The_Colonel 3y agoSorry, but you don't understand the western sanctions on Russian oil. The goal is to keep it flowing (so that the prices don't explode), but to squeeze the Russian profits. Make their (e. g. transportation) costs high and sale price low (price cap).
- petre 3y agoThe sanctions worked somewhat. So did the destruction of North Stream. With it operational, Germany would have been buying Russian gas as usual. Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries will work even better. https://energyandcleanair.org/june-2023-monthly-snapshot-on-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-sanctions/ https://energyandcleanair.org/june-2023-monthly-snapshot-on-... The German auto industry should be building tanks and APCs instead of obnoxious diesel SUVs. And they should build them like a Renault, not like an Audi or BMW which are not easily serviceable. Their Puma APC fleet is plagued with issues.
- nradov 3y agoAnd maybe German industry should build some regular guns as well so that their army will no longer have to rely on wooden broomsticks painted black. https://www.newsweek.com/germany-cant-explain-use-broomstick-instead-guns-nato-exercise-307902 https://www.newsweek.com/germany-cant-explain-use-broomstick...
- tom_ 3y agoThis does seem like a very ineffective way to defend yourself against the other teams in the training exercise, who will presumably be firing live ammo.
- _heimdall 3y agoSanctions cut off markets from Russian oil, they didn't attack profits directly. Sure there will be a short term hit to profit margins as the oil industry had to adjust and different markets have to buy up the sanctioned oil, but its a global market of a fungible commodity. Even if sanctions did somehow target profits directly, has it worked? Do we know that Russian oil profits are meaningfully less than they would otherwise have been? And how do we balance that benefit with the damage caused to European markets that had to scramble to adapt?
- konschubert 3y agoYes we know that russia has to sell its oil significantly below market value, which means that sanctions are working.
- catdog 3y ago> The fact that prices haven't increased noticeably sure seems like a sign that sanctions against Russia were largely toothless and their oil is making its way into the global supply all the same. It was never the goal to keep Russia from selling its oil as it would hike up prices globally. The goal was to force them to sell it for cheap so they barely make any profit. That at least worked somewhat.
- _heimdall 3y agoThat would have worked for a short time while Russia and the oil industry adjusted, but ultimately its a global market of a fungible commodity. Unless sanctions succeed at blocking Russian oil from hitting the market entirely a loss in profit would be short lived at best.