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Never believe an economist when they say "x will cause y." They didn't predict inflation. Then they predicted that fighting it would cause a big recession, an
by fallingknife 3y ago
Never believe an economist when they say "x will cause y." They didn't predict inflation. Then they predicted that fighting it would cause a big recession, and it didn't. They seem pretty good at measuring the current state of things, but the whole field has very low predictive power.
- hiddencost 3y agoCBO tends to have a very good reputation actually.
- Matticus_Rex 3y agoPlenty of economists predicted inflation lol EDIT: To be clear, I think more of them should have, and it's shameful that they didn't. But the old Econ orthodoxy would have, and this detour from the idea that printing money causes inflation is a fairly recent thing, and wasn't by any means a consensus position.
- dandesim 3y agoFirst, you're lumping every economist into a single entity. Different economists can look at the same information and determine different outcomes. It is more subjective than objective. That said, many economists did warn that stimulus money would lead to inflation, however there were many people in dire need which justified the 'greater good' approach to it. As to fighting said inflation, many economists believed we would have the 'soft landing' that we are heading for. They warned fighting too hard would lead to a recession, as in the harder and higher interest rates go, the more likely a recession would become. Were there economists on the other sides of these beliefs? Yes, so that's why weighing the multitude of opinions and getting toward a consensus comes into play.