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Really? I thought Disney was doing well. Their subscription service is only behind Netflix and Amazon, the latter of which includes its service in Prime so is n

Really? I thought Disney was doing well. Their subscription service is only behind Netflix and Amazon, the latter of which includes its service in Prime so is not an equal competitor. Further, their ownership of Marvel has provided them some of the largest grossing films of all time, and their Star Wars acquisition seems to be paying off. The parks seem to be quite strong, but I've only experienced the Japan ones. Overall I find it difficult, from a layman's perspective, to believe Disney is in trouble but welcome any other information.

lotsofpulp 3y ago
See their net income and profit margin trends: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/DIS/disney/net-income https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/DIS/disney/net-inc... https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/DIS/disney/profit-margins https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/DIS/disney/profit-... Doesn’t look so hot for the last 4 or 5 years. They went from earning near $10B per year to less than $3B per year.
- Rexxar 3y ago
  If you ignore the Covid drop, the trend change seems to start in 2019 when they bought Century Fox.
  - lotsofpulp 3y ago
    I’m not sure what the exact cause is, but for some reason, they lose billions on streaming (page 24): https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/app/uploads/2023/11/Q4_FY23_Earnings_Presentation.pdf https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/app/uploads/2023/11/Q4_FY23...
    - nonethewiser 3y ago
      Because they give lots of subscriptions away for free and the paying customers are paying a subsidized price. All so Disney can increase market share. This is why you cant just point to subscriber count as a success indicator.
    - bombcar 3y ago
      How much of this is real losses and how much is accounting tricks by licensing content from themselves?
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
      - lotsofpulp 3y ago
        I would guess none based on the breakdown on page 10. They would have written in the “Direct to consumer” section that licensing costs were the reason for the losses. Instead, they specified that technology costs and costs to create the media were the tradings for the losses.
- Staple_Diet 3y ago
  Thanks, this definitely adds some context. Seems all these acquisitions is costly work.
sofixa 3y ago
> Their subscription service is only behind Netflix and Amazon Because it's drastically cheaper in an obvious dumping exercise, and has some interesting IP kids and grown ups that used to be kids want to (re)watch. However there really isn't that much content on it, nor is new content coming that quickly, so at some point after everything of interest has been seen, people will start unsubscribing. This is why Netflix is constantly churning out new stuff of very varying quality (utter shit next to masterpieces) - you need to keep people paying the subscription.
- bombcar 3y ago
  This is the root issue with these - people subscribe to Disney+ et al because it has everything (Ariel voice) and then they get bored having watched it all, the kids are satisfied by a single dvd on repeat, so you let the subscription lapse. I had D+, Prime, and Netflix at one point and now have none. The DVDs at the library are free, too.
patmorgan23 3y ago
They've had several big box office fails, partially because the Disney+ has been cannibalizing those viewers (why go see it in theaters when I can wait three months and watch it on Disney+ for no additional cost?). Also they've over saturated the MCU with a million movies and TV shows every year. People have just been burned out on it and they've only recently decided to cut back production on those and be more focused.

lotsofpulp 3y ago

See their net income and profit margin trends: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/DIS/disney/net-income https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/DIS/disney/net-inc... https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/DIS/disney/profit-margins https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/DIS/disney/profit-... Doesn’t look so hot for the last 4 or 5 years. They went from earning near $10B per year to less than $3B per year.

Rexxar 3y ago
If you ignore the Covid drop, the trend change seems to start in 2019 when they bought Century Fox.
- lotsofpulp 3y ago
  I’m not sure what the exact cause is, but for some reason, they lose billions on streaming (page 24): https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/app/uploads/2023/11/Q4_FY23_Earnings_Presentation.pdf https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/app/uploads/2023/11/Q4_FY23...
  - nonethewiser 3y ago
    Because they give lots of subscriptions away for free and the paying customers are paying a subsidized price. All so Disney can increase market share. This is why you cant just point to subscriber count as a success indicator.
  - bombcar 3y ago
    How much of this is real losses and how much is accounting tricks by licensing content from themselves?
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - lotsofpulp 3y ago
      I would guess none based on the breakdown on page 10. They would have written in the “Direct to consumer” section that licensing costs were the reason for the losses. Instead, they specified that technology costs and costs to create the media were the tradings for the losses.
Staple_Diet 3y ago
Thanks, this definitely adds some context. Seems all these acquisitions is costly work.

sofixa 3y ago

> Their subscription service is only behind Netflix and Amazon Because it's drastically cheaper in an obvious dumping exercise, and has some interesting IP kids and grown ups that used to be kids want to (re)watch. However there really isn't that much content on it, nor is new content coming that quickly, so at some point after everything of interest has been seen, people will start unsubscribing. This is why Netflix is constantly churning out new stuff of very varying quality (utter shit next to masterpieces) - you need to keep people paying the subscription.

bombcar 3y ago
This is the root issue with these - people subscribe to Disney+ et al because it has everything (Ariel voice) and then they get bored having watched it all, the kids are satisfied by a single dvd on repeat, so you let the subscription lapse. I had D+, Prime, and Netflix at one point and now have none. The DVDs at the library are free, too.

patmorgan23 3y ago

They've had several big box office fails, partially because the Disney+ has been cannibalizing those viewers (why go see it in theaters when I can wait three months and watch it on Disney+ for no additional cost?). Also they've over saturated the MCU with a million movies and TV shows every year. People have just been burned out on it and they've only recently decided to cut back production on those and be more focused.