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I don't think anyone is going to come to Taiwan's aid if a major invasion comes up. There will be material and intelligence support, for sure, but sending troop

I don't think anyone is going to come to Taiwan's aid if a major invasion comes up. There will be material and intelligence support, for sure, but sending troops? Not so sure. I agree that Xi probably wants some legacy coined to him, but he is only 70 and looks pretty healthy (as far as I see) so I guess he can still wait it out. I still don't believe there is going to be an invasion of Taiwan happening in the next few years, but if it does, I think it's going to be a lot bigger than just Taiwan. From this perspective, it is scary.

ethbr1 3y ago
Declaring closed straits to Chinese military surface vessels on the Taiwan-Philippines and Taiwan-Japan gaps, along with resupply of Taiwan from the east, seems a reasonable response for the US (and possibly Japan). China's calculus changes if they have to strike Japanese and Philippine sovereign territory (even if it's hosting US forces) in order to accomplish their goals. And it's unclear if even Xi is willing to send as many ships and bodies as it would take to the bottom of Taiwanese straits to get an invasion force across. (Which then faces a guerrilla insurgency in mountainous terrain) If Xi sees Taiwan as a gateway to Pacific hegemony, maybe that math is worth it... But asking a populace to support that in the face of economic weakness and high youth unemployment is a tall order. The COVID lockdown riots demonstrated that even China's social control is a fine line.
- macintux 3y ago
  Many leaders have discovered that war against an external enemy is a powerful unifier, at least in the short to medium term. I would never assume that Xi won’t eventually take advantage of that.
  - ethbr1 3y ago
    Honestly, Russia invading Ukraine, the global economic response to Russia, and China seeing all of that... probably saved Taiwan. China doesn't have the natural resource base within its borders (they're digging up their iron ore reserves faster than any country, and they have to import oil) that Russia does. Consequently, economic sanctions slow their economy down a lot faster than Russia's. War may be an internal unifier... but unemployment, poverty, and scarcity is a rapid internal disintegrator.
    - FpUser 3y ago
      >"unemployment, poverty, and scarcity is a rapid internal disintegrator." Looking at "disintegrated" Cuba...
berserk1010 3y ago
China is in no shape to invade, being in a great depression https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2024/01/22/chinas-economy-has-picked-up-traits-reminiscent-of-the-great-depression/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2024/01/22/chinas-..., up to its eyeballs in debt, and having horrible demographics. And having horrible tax base. For reference, when Germany and Japan was expanding, they had great, young demographics, and thus very good tax base. Japan had very low debt in 1920 when they started the wars https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/columns/s15_0004.html https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/columns/s15_0004.html. Germany had suspended the gold standard and financed the war by borrowing, something China cannot do today. Another way to think about this is, instead of all the possible money China made that it could have spent on war, instead it decided to build half-finished tofu dreg buildings, then the CCP elites took those dirty money out of China and into western economies :). Even the elites knew China was no match for the combined wealth/forces of western countries.
- berserk1010 3y ago
  Also, the Chinese army in general is probably non-functional. Too much corruption, case in point: Corrupt Chinese Officials Filled Missiles With Water, Report Says https://www.newsweek.com/china-missiles-rocket-fuel-corrupt-officials-water-xi-jinping-1858491 https://www.newsweek.com/china-missiles-rocket-fuel-corrupt-...
  - jiggawatts 3y ago
    That is piss-poor journalism. Most military rockets are solid fueled, for one. Perun covers the topic of Chinese military readiness with excellent sourcing and great detail, as always: https://youtu.be/vhI_tTEE2ZQ https://youtu.be/vhI_tTEE2ZQ
- gentleman11 3y ago
  What state was Russia in before the Ukraine invasion? Putin and Xi aren't leading democracies, they can do whatever they want. Their countries are basically their property. Neither will go hungry if their country has a famine, etc
- 3y ago

ethbr1 3y ago

Declaring closed straits to Chinese military surface vessels on the Taiwan-Philippines and Taiwan-Japan gaps, along with resupply of Taiwan from the east, seems a reasonable response for the US (and possibly Japan). China's calculus changes if they have to strike Japanese and Philippine sovereign territory (even if it's hosting US forces) in order to accomplish their goals. And it's unclear if even Xi is willing to send as many ships and bodies as it would take to the bottom of Taiwanese straits to get an invasion force across. (Which then faces a guerrilla insurgency in mountainous terrain) If Xi sees Taiwan as a gateway to Pacific hegemony, maybe that math is worth it... But asking a populace to support that in the face of economic weakness and high youth unemployment is a tall order. The COVID lockdown riots demonstrated that even China's social control is a fine line.

macintux 3y ago
Many leaders have discovered that war against an external enemy is a powerful unifier, at least in the short to medium term. I would never assume that Xi won’t eventually take advantage of that.
- ethbr1 3y ago
  Honestly, Russia invading Ukraine, the global economic response to Russia, and China seeing all of that... probably saved Taiwan. China doesn't have the natural resource base within its borders (they're digging up their iron ore reserves faster than any country, and they have to import oil) that Russia does. Consequently, economic sanctions slow their economy down a lot faster than Russia's. War may be an internal unifier... but unemployment, poverty, and scarcity is a rapid internal disintegrator.
  - FpUser 3y ago
    >"unemployment, poverty, and scarcity is a rapid internal disintegrator." Looking at "disintegrated" Cuba...

berserk1010 3y ago

China is in no shape to invade, being in a great depression https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2024/01/22/chinas-economy-has-picked-up-traits-reminiscent-of-the-great-depression/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2024/01/22/chinas-..., up to its eyeballs in debt, and having horrible demographics. And having horrible tax base. For reference, when Germany and Japan was expanding, they had great, young demographics, and thus very good tax base. Japan had very low debt in 1920 when they started the wars https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/columns/s15_0004.html https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/columns/s15_0004.html. Germany had suspended the gold standard and financed the war by borrowing, something China cannot do today. Another way to think about this is, instead of all the possible money China made that it could have spent on war, instead it decided to build half-finished tofu dreg buildings, then the CCP elites took those dirty money out of China and into western economies :). Even the elites knew China was no match for the combined wealth/forces of western countries.

berserk1010 3y ago
Also, the Chinese army in general is probably non-functional. Too much corruption, case in point: Corrupt Chinese Officials Filled Missiles With Water, Report Says https://www.newsweek.com/china-missiles-rocket-fuel-corrupt-officials-water-xi-jinping-1858491 https://www.newsweek.com/china-missiles-rocket-fuel-corrupt-...
- jiggawatts 3y ago
  That is piss-poor journalism. Most military rockets are solid fueled, for one. Perun covers the topic of Chinese military readiness with excellent sourcing and great detail, as always: https://youtu.be/vhI_tTEE2ZQ https://youtu.be/vhI_tTEE2ZQ
gentleman11 3y ago
What state was Russia in before the Ukraine invasion? Putin and Xi aren't leading democracies, they can do whatever they want. Their countries are basically their property. Neither will go hungry if their country has a famine, etc
3y ago