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>What about Toyota's plans makes you think they will ever catch up to everyone else with EVs? Their history of engineering and execution. What makes you think

>What about Toyota's plans makes you think they will ever catch up to everyone else with EVs? Their history of engineering and execution. What makes you think think they can't? EV proponents like to argue that the simplicity is what makes EVs so great, but at the same time making arguments like "no one can catch up". Believe it or not, it's not a certainty that EVs are going to be the solution, rather than just an improvement on our way to something else.

quonn 3y ago
What else?
- deleted 3y ago
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mjamesaustin 3y ago
What makes me think they can't catch up is watching them spend dramatically less than their competition on the needed infrastructure when they are already very far behind. To catch up from behind, you need to do more than your competition.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- dylan604 3y ago
  When someone else has already spent money on the hard part of being first, those that follow do not need to spend the same amount of money repeating the same mistakes.
- mikeyouse 3y ago
  This is an article about a single factory - Toyota spends upwards of $30 billion a year in CapEx -- Tesla spends under $10 billion per year. Toyota's battery complex in North Carolina is a greater spend than the entire annual budget from Tesla and will have about the same output as Tesla's "gigafactory". The $1.3 billion in Kentucky is in addition to that.. it's a mistake to think they're not investing heavily. https://www.just-auto.com/news/toyota-to-double-investment-in-us-ev-battery-production/?cf-view https://www.just-auto.com/news/toyota-to-double-investment-i...
  - chii 3y ago
    I would imagine the catch up is not in the form of a factory, but with raw material supply chain. Tesla would've locked in cheaper lithium supply than toyota.
    - mikeyouse 3y ago
      Sure Lithium is important - but Toyota has been selling hybrids for 25 years... so of course they already have a pretty sophisiticated lithium supply chain. Here's one article from 2018 where they secured 100% of the sales rights to an Argentinian lithium mine that is equivalent to all of the lithium Tesla used worldwide in 2021. https://www.toyota-tsusho.com/english/about/project/04.html https://www.toyota-tsusho.com/english/about/project/04.html It's actually inconceivable to me how Musk & Tesla were able to launch a new auto manufacturer, especially with a novel drivetrain. The amount of things that had to go right, the number of decisions they had to make, the number of supplier agreements and sales agreements are a massive, monumental lift. The world is a better place for Tesla existing and for proving the market for electric cars. However... People massively underestimate the amount of money the big OEMs can throw at these problems. Toyota Group has an entirely separate mining and materials company with as much annual revenue as Tesla's entire org: https://www.toyota-tsusho.com/english/ir/library/integrated-report/pdf/ar2023e_all.pdf https://www.toyota-tsusho.com/english/ir/library/integrated-... Tesla has ~$100 billion in assets, Toyota has >5x that. I hope Musk settles down with his silly time-wasting edgelord nonsense on Twitter and focuses on Tesla and SpaceX - with more of a steady hand and a singular focus on EVs, I think they could be the largest manufacturer in the world but they're not there yet and a slightly cheaper lithium supply isn't the unique advantage that's going to get them there.
tenpies 3y ago
Correct. Toyota's bet is simple: what makes rational economic, environmental, and good-policy sense for most locales is not an EV. It's a hybrid. And it's a bet that's working well so far: https://fortune.com/asia/2023/12/28/toyota-hybrid-cars-sales-record-2023-top-automaker/ https://fortune.com/asia/2023/12/28/toyota-hybrid-cars-sales...
- pie420 3y ago
  yet they refuse to build hybrids in large numbers. RAV4 primes and Prius primes are insanely difficult to get at or near MSRP. Toyota is saying that Hybrids make the most sense, but still use hybrid as an upsell for a higher trim, and thus only makes a fraction of their cars as hybrids. If >50% of their vehicles were hybrids, i'd be ecstatic and would agree with them, but currently it's just whataboutism and misdirection
  - tguvot 3y ago
    they don't refuse to build. they fail to match production to demand due to logistical reasons. factory discussed here it's literally solution for production problems that they have. when i was buying hybrid volvo a few years ago and talked to dealership boss, i was told that volvo got surprised by demand and they simply don't have enough battery packs in order build more. and things like battery pack for car, it's not something that you can just ramp up capacity from today to tomorrow.
  - matthewdgreen 3y ago
    Hybrids combine the costs and maintenance issues of an ICE with the costs and maintenance issues of a BEV. This is a lot of unnecessary complexity and cost for what will ultimately be a short transition, during which China will substantially eat into Japanese automakers’ markets and gain the upper hand in battery supply.

quonn 3y ago

What else?

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

mjamesaustin 3y ago

What makes me think they can't catch up is watching them spend dramatically less than their competition on the needed infrastructure when they are already very far behind. To catch up from behind, you need to do more than your competition.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
dylan604 3y ago
When someone else has already spent money on the hard part of being first, those that follow do not need to spend the same amount of money repeating the same mistakes.
mikeyouse 3y ago
This is an article about a single factory - Toyota spends upwards of $30 billion a year in CapEx -- Tesla spends under $10 billion per year. Toyota's battery complex in North Carolina is a greater spend than the entire annual budget from Tesla and will have about the same output as Tesla's "gigafactory". The $1.3 billion in Kentucky is in addition to that.. it's a mistake to think they're not investing heavily. https://www.just-auto.com/news/toyota-to-double-investment-in-us-ev-battery-production/?cf-view https://www.just-auto.com/news/toyota-to-double-investment-i...
- chii 3y ago
  I would imagine the catch up is not in the form of a factory, but with raw material supply chain. Tesla would've locked in cheaper lithium supply than toyota.
  - mikeyouse 3y ago
    Sure Lithium is important - but Toyota has been selling hybrids for 25 years... so of course they already have a pretty sophisiticated lithium supply chain. Here's one article from 2018 where they secured 100% of the sales rights to an Argentinian lithium mine that is equivalent to all of the lithium Tesla used worldwide in 2021. https://www.toyota-tsusho.com/english/about/project/04.html https://www.toyota-tsusho.com/english/about/project/04.html It's actually inconceivable to me how Musk & Tesla were able to launch a new auto manufacturer, especially with a novel drivetrain. The amount of things that had to go right, the number of decisions they had to make, the number of supplier agreements and sales agreements are a massive, monumental lift. The world is a better place for Tesla existing and for proving the market for electric cars. However... People massively underestimate the amount of money the big OEMs can throw at these problems. Toyota Group has an entirely separate mining and materials company with as much annual revenue as Tesla's entire org: https://www.toyota-tsusho.com/english/ir/library/integrated-report/pdf/ar2023e_all.pdf https://www.toyota-tsusho.com/english/ir/library/integrated-... Tesla has ~$100 billion in assets, Toyota has >5x that. I hope Musk settles down with his silly time-wasting edgelord nonsense on Twitter and focuses on Tesla and SpaceX - with more of a steady hand and a singular focus on EVs, I think they could be the largest manufacturer in the world but they're not there yet and a slightly cheaper lithium supply isn't the unique advantage that's going to get them there.

tenpies 3y ago

Correct. Toyota's bet is simple: what makes rational economic, environmental, and good-policy sense for most locales is not an EV. It's a hybrid. And it's a bet that's working well so far: https://fortune.com/asia/2023/12/28/toyota-hybrid-cars-sales-record-2023-top-automaker/ https://fortune.com/asia/2023/12/28/toyota-hybrid-cars-sales...

pie420 3y ago
yet they refuse to build hybrids in large numbers. RAV4 primes and Prius primes are insanely difficult to get at or near MSRP. Toyota is saying that Hybrids make the most sense, but still use hybrid as an upsell for a higher trim, and thus only makes a fraction of their cars as hybrids. If >50% of their vehicles were hybrids, i'd be ecstatic and would agree with them, but currently it's just whataboutism and misdirection
- tguvot 3y ago
  they don't refuse to build. they fail to match production to demand due to logistical reasons. factory discussed here it's literally solution for production problems that they have. when i was buying hybrid volvo a few years ago and talked to dealership boss, i was told that volvo got surprised by demand and they simply don't have enough battery packs in order build more. and things like battery pack for car, it's not something that you can just ramp up capacity from today to tomorrow.
- matthewdgreen 3y ago
  Hybrids combine the costs and maintenance issues of an ICE with the costs and maintenance issues of a BEV. This is a lot of unnecessary complexity and cost for what will ultimately be a short transition, during which China will substantially eat into Japanese automakers’ markets and gain the upper hand in battery supply.