14 ms·

What about Toyota's plans makes you think they will ever catch up to everyone else with EVs?

Retric 3y ago
They don’t need to innovate just execute and Toyota is all about execution. Build a car people want and let sales drive future investments.
- TheCleric 3y ago
  Yeah I wouldn’t bet against Toyota in a game of catch up. They’ve proven over and over that their real strength is in doing what other companies have proven out and doing it better and more efficiently.
- belltaco 3y ago
  Execution like the wheels falling off their flagship all-ev car? After they've been making cars for 85+ years. https://www.carsales.com.au/editorial/details/wheels-falling-off-toyotas-first-ev-136259/ https://www.carsales.com.au/editorial/details/wheels-falling... https://www.motortrend.com/news/toyotas-fix-bz4x-disconnecting-wheels-recall https://www.motortrend.com/news/toyotas-fix-bz4x-disconnecti... That doesn't get the headlines and attenion that a icon enlargement software update on Tesla does on HN.
  - throwup238 3y ago
    Teslas Have a Minor Issue Where the Wheels Fly Off While Driving, Documents Show - https://futurism.com/tesla-flaws-failures-blame-drivers https://futurism.com/tesla-flaws-failures-blame-drivers It's really easy to cherry pick problems when someone makes millions of cars every year.
    - belltaco 3y ago
      Toyota was forced to recall all their BZX cars for that issue, whereas the scale of the problem you linked appears to be much lower across Tesla's models.
      - throwup238 3y ago
        "All their BZX cars" = less than 5,500 cars total. It wasn't just a completely new car model, it was the first one built on Toyota's e-TNGA modular EV platform. The factory line had just barely gotten off the ground. Toyta sold ten million cars that year so scale wise that doesn't even qualify as a rounding error. The Teslas suspension problems that caused some wheels to fly off effected tens of thousands.
      - enragedcacti 3y ago
        It was a voluntary recall on an extremely low production vehicle (at least at the time), a total of 260 cars with a potential issue. Compare that to the tens of thousands of ACTUAL INCIDENTS identified by Reuters through Tesla internal documents and Tesla's refusal to even cover the repairs, let alone proactively recall all potentially affected vehicles. Much of what was covered by Reuter's occurred AFTER China forced a recall for the exact same issues. https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-is-conducting-a-safety-recall-involving-2023-model-year-bz4x-vehicles/ https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-is-conducting-a-safety-r... https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/tesla-musk-steering-suspension/ https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/tesla-mu...
    - vardump 3y ago
      Wasn't that about one incident, where the driver was in a traffic accident before the wheel fell off? Wheels are actually designed to fall off in an accident.
KptMarchewa 3y ago
I think Toyota feels comfortable being a follower in that case and eventually use a large number of suppliers for the basic things that Tesla as a first mover has or wants to develop themselves.
- rootusrootus 3y ago
  That'll be an interest test -- the reason Tesla is so vertically integrated is because it allows them a greater profit margin. They've already been using that margin to slap around other manufacturers and force them to sell in the red.
explaininjs 3y ago
The fact that they already sell the most popular electric vehicle in the US and Japan, and have done so since they launched the very beginning of electric vehicles, over 25 years ago? (Pruis)
- luuurker 3y ago
  Hybrid. I'm nitpicking, but current full electric Toyota cars are not that good or popular.
  - itsoktocry 3y ago
    Electric cars are not that popular, period. Hybrids may turn out to be a more popular option.
    - quonn 3y ago
      Hybrids have basically all the possible parts that can break.
      - lotsofpulp 3y ago
        But Toyota’s hybrids have a very good reputation regarding longevity and low cost of ownership.
      - explaininjs 3y ago
        Not really, the transmission can be made much simpler and more robust.
      - mrguyorama 3y ago
        But the entire selling point of Toyota to most people is that it WONT break, at least for 150k miles.
    - rootusrootus 3y ago
      > Electric cars are not that popular, period. That is a matter of opinion. As a brand new technology, I think a market share approaching 10% is incredible. Only fans thought this was possible even 5 years ago.
antisthenes 3y ago
Toyota has probably shipped more battery capacity in hybrid cars than most EV manufacturers to date. They don't need to catch up to anything.
- mensetmanusman 3y ago
  5 million prius * 14 kWhr 5 million tesla * 50 kWhr This is probably true, hybrids may win in the US market in the short term until they are outlawed?
  - kevin_thibedeau 3y ago
    They'll never be outlawed. There are too many use cases for 300+ mile trips in remote areas where recharging isn't possible or less remote areas where it isn't practical.
    - riku_iki 3y ago
      There are laws in effect already: https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/ https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-...
      - katbyte 3y ago
        If it’s anything like Canada it still allows for hybrid. Banning everything but BEV will never happen because Bev will never work for a small subset of users
        riku_iki 3y ago
        they have similar law in Canada: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-electric-vehicles-2035-1.7063993#:~:text=The%20federal%20government%20is%20laying,targets%20for%20manufacturers%20to%20meet https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-electric-vehicles-20....
itsoktocry 3y ago
>What about Toyota's plans makes you think they will ever catch up to everyone else with EVs? Their history of engineering and execution. What makes you think think they can't? EV proponents like to argue that the simplicity is what makes EVs so great, but at the same time making arguments like "no one can catch up". Believe it or not, it's not a certainty that EVs are going to be the solution, rather than just an improvement on our way to something else.
- quonn 3y ago
  What else?
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
- mjamesaustin 3y ago
  What makes me think they can't catch up is watching them spend dramatically less than their competition on the needed infrastructure when they are already very far behind. To catch up from behind, you need to do more than your competition.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - dylan604 3y ago
    When someone else has already spent money on the hard part of being first, those that follow do not need to spend the same amount of money repeating the same mistakes.
  - mikeyouse 3y ago
    This is an article about a single factory - Toyota spends upwards of $30 billion a year in CapEx -- Tesla spends under $10 billion per year. Toyota's battery complex in North Carolina is a greater spend than the entire annual budget from Tesla and will have about the same output as Tesla's "gigafactory". The $1.3 billion in Kentucky is in addition to that.. it's a mistake to think they're not investing heavily. https://www.just-auto.com/news/toyota-to-double-investment-in-us-ev-battery-production/?cf-view https://www.just-auto.com/news/toyota-to-double-investment-i...
carabiner 3y ago
Easy to catch up when EV market is shrinking. Toyota is right, gas hybrids are the future. Awesome range, you don't have to own a home to charge one, no problems in cold weather.
- bryanlarsen 3y ago
  The EV market was 30% larger in 2023 than 2022.
  - carabiner 3y ago
    Lagging indicator. Hertz is dumping their Teslas and canceled their purchase of 65k Polestars.
    - bryanlarsen 3y ago
      If you want to cherry-pick random anecdotes I'll counter with multi-year waitlists for Hyundai EV9 despite being expensive and ineligible for the $7500 rebate.
      - FirmwareBurner 3y ago
        >Hyundai EV9 despite not being expensive It starts at €70k. In what world is this not expensive? Maybe in Bay Area Fang wages.
        bryanlarsen 3y ago
        Sorry, typo. It being very expensive makes the wait-lists surprising. If it wasn't expensive wait-lists wouldn't be surprising.
        FirmwareBurner 3y ago
        > It being very expensive makes the wait-lists surprising. Does it? Ferraris, Zondas and Koenigseggs also have big waiting lists. Expensive things to the well off sell easier than average products to the ever shrinking middle class.
ActorNightly 3y ago
I could walk in and buy Model Y any time I want. Not so with Rav 4 Prime. Plugin hybrids are the future.
- oohffyvfg 3y ago
  tesla fans defending how easy it is to find a Tesla in stock is a new one. grand.
  - tempestn 3y ago
    I don't think that's the point they're trying to make.
- LightBug1 3y ago
  Hah, try doing it via lease ... the supposed 'seamless' experience completely falls down ... I've just spent 5 months handholding a model 3 order, only for it to fall down at the end when Tesla tried to stiff our company for £3k. Ended up leasing a BMW i5 because of the complete waste of time and hassle. I'm glad it wasn't my car but, based on the experience, I wouldn't go near that joke of a company ever again. Lost a repeat customer too. Takeaway: their staff listen more to their robot portal software than they do to rational customer experience. And I know I'm p'ing in the wind ... but Tesla (in my experience) get way too much credit. I've had better experiences with conventional dealerships (and that's saying something considering how bad they are). N=1
  - rootusrootus 3y ago
    > I've had better experiences with conventional dealerships I don't know how. I've got dealing with conventional car dealers down to an art form, and it still isn't even remotely comparable. To get a Tesla you order it online and then go in for an appointment to pick it up. Hand them the payment, they already have all the paperwork ready for signatures, they give you the key cards and offer to help you install the app. You accept delivery and drive home. If you want, you can easily be in and out in 15 minutes or less. And the delivery guy doesn't try to sell me anything. No extended warranty, nothing.
repler 3y ago
Test drive a RAV4 Prime. All it needs is more battery capacity, which apparently they are indeed investing in.
- wafflerewire 3y ago
  RAV4 Prime owner here. I completely agree with wanting more battery capacity. For my use case, it has been a minor complaint. Been very happy overall with it.
ThinkBeat 3y ago
The electric car Toyota is selling now is doing quite well sales wise. (at least in Norway) They have a whole line of them "coming any day now". They have a lot of people who love the Toyota/Lexus brand.
radiator 3y ago
If you mean stop manufacturing Internal Combustion Engines, Toyota have said many times, they do not intend to "catch up to everyone else" with EVs. They have the luxury of sitting and watching their competition leave the market, thus leaving Toyota's road to great profits wide open.
- rootusrootus 3y ago
  Only works if the competition does indeed leave the market. The risk of staying out while everyone else embraces the next generation technology is a reduction in customer loyalty. Every current Toyota owner who buys a competitor's product is potentially someone who will switch loyalties going forward.

They don’t need to innovate just execute and Toyota is all about execution. Build a car people want and let sales drive future investments.

TheCleric 3y ago
Yeah I wouldn’t bet against Toyota in a game of catch up. They’ve proven over and over that their real strength is in doing what other companies have proven out and doing it better and more efficiently.
belltaco 3y ago
Execution like the wheels falling off their flagship all-ev car? After they've been making cars for 85+ years. https://www.carsales.com.au/editorial/details/wheels-falling-off-toyotas-first-ev-136259/ https://www.carsales.com.au/editorial/details/wheels-falling... https://www.motortrend.com/news/toyotas-fix-bz4x-disconnecting-wheels-recall https://www.motortrend.com/news/toyotas-fix-bz4x-disconnecti... That doesn't get the headlines and attenion that a icon enlargement software update on Tesla does on HN.
- throwup238 3y ago
  Teslas Have a Minor Issue Where the Wheels Fly Off While Driving, Documents Show - https://futurism.com/tesla-flaws-failures-blame-drivers https://futurism.com/tesla-flaws-failures-blame-drivers It's really easy to cherry pick problems when someone makes millions of cars every year.
  - belltaco 3y ago
    Toyota was forced to recall all their BZX cars for that issue, whereas the scale of the problem you linked appears to be much lower across Tesla's models.
    - throwup238 3y ago
      "All their BZX cars" = less than 5,500 cars total. It wasn't just a completely new car model, it was the first one built on Toyota's e-TNGA modular EV platform. The factory line had just barely gotten off the ground. Toyta sold ten million cars that year so scale wise that doesn't even qualify as a rounding error. The Teslas suspension problems that caused some wheels to fly off effected tens of thousands.
    - enragedcacti 3y ago
      It was a voluntary recall on an extremely low production vehicle (at least at the time), a total of 260 cars with a potential issue. Compare that to the tens of thousands of ACTUAL INCIDENTS identified by Reuters through Tesla internal documents and Tesla's refusal to even cover the repairs, let alone proactively recall all potentially affected vehicles. Much of what was covered by Reuter's occurred AFTER China forced a recall for the exact same issues. https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-is-conducting-a-safety-recall-involving-2023-model-year-bz4x-vehicles/ https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-is-conducting-a-safety-r... https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/tesla-musk-steering-suspension/ https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/tesla-mu...
  - vardump 3y ago
    Wasn't that about one incident, where the driver was in a traffic accident before the wheel fell off? Wheels are actually designed to fall off in an accident.

KptMarchewa 3y ago

I think Toyota feels comfortable being a follower in that case and eventually use a large number of suppliers for the basic things that Tesla as a first mover has or wants to develop themselves.

rootusrootus 3y ago
That'll be an interest test -- the reason Tesla is so vertically integrated is because it allows them a greater profit margin. They've already been using that margin to slap around other manufacturers and force them to sell in the red.

explaininjs 3y ago

The fact that they already sell the most popular electric vehicle in the US and Japan, and have done so since they launched the very beginning of electric vehicles, over 25 years ago? (Pruis)

luuurker 3y ago
Hybrid. I'm nitpicking, but current full electric Toyota cars are not that good or popular.
- itsoktocry 3y ago
  Electric cars are not that popular, period. Hybrids may turn out to be a more popular option.
  - quonn 3y ago
    Hybrids have basically all the possible parts that can break.
    - lotsofpulp 3y ago
      But Toyota’s hybrids have a very good reputation regarding longevity and low cost of ownership.
    - explaininjs 3y ago
      Not really, the transmission can be made much simpler and more robust.
    - mrguyorama 3y ago
      But the entire selling point of Toyota to most people is that it WONT break, at least for 150k miles.
  - rootusrootus 3y ago
    > Electric cars are not that popular, period. That is a matter of opinion. As a brand new technology, I think a market share approaching 10% is incredible. Only fans thought this was possible even 5 years ago.

antisthenes 3y ago

Toyota has probably shipped more battery capacity in hybrid cars than most EV manufacturers to date. They don't need to catch up to anything.

mensetmanusman 3y ago
5 million prius * 14 kWhr 5 million tesla * 50 kWhr This is probably true, hybrids may win in the US market in the short term until they are outlawed?
- kevin_thibedeau 3y ago
  They'll never be outlawed. There are too many use cases for 300+ mile trips in remote areas where recharging isn't possible or less remote areas where it isn't practical.
  - riku_iki 3y ago
    There are laws in effect already: https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/ https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-...
    - katbyte 3y ago
      If it’s anything like Canada it still allows for hybrid. Banning everything but BEV will never happen because Bev will never work for a small subset of users
      - riku_iki 3y ago
        they have similar law in Canada: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-electric-vehicles-2035-1.7063993#:~:text=The%20federal%20government%20is%20laying,targets%20for%20manufacturers%20to%20meet https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-electric-vehicles-20....

itsoktocry 3y ago

>What about Toyota's plans makes you think they will ever catch up to everyone else with EVs? Their history of engineering and execution. What makes you think think they can't? EV proponents like to argue that the simplicity is what makes EVs so great, but at the same time making arguments like "no one can catch up". Believe it or not, it's not a certainty that EVs are going to be the solution, rather than just an improvement on our way to something else.

quonn 3y ago
What else?
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
mjamesaustin 3y ago
What makes me think they can't catch up is watching them spend dramatically less than their competition on the needed infrastructure when they are already very far behind. To catch up from behind, you need to do more than your competition.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- dylan604 3y ago
  When someone else has already spent money on the hard part of being first, those that follow do not need to spend the same amount of money repeating the same mistakes.
- mikeyouse 3y ago
  This is an article about a single factory - Toyota spends upwards of $30 billion a year in CapEx -- Tesla spends under $10 billion per year. Toyota's battery complex in North Carolina is a greater spend than the entire annual budget from Tesla and will have about the same output as Tesla's "gigafactory". The $1.3 billion in Kentucky is in addition to that.. it's a mistake to think they're not investing heavily. https://www.just-auto.com/news/toyota-to-double-investment-in-us-ev-battery-production/?cf-view https://www.just-auto.com/news/toyota-to-double-investment-i...

carabiner 3y ago

Easy to catch up when EV market is shrinking. Toyota is right, gas hybrids are the future. Awesome range, you don't have to own a home to charge one, no problems in cold weather.

bryanlarsen 3y ago
The EV market was 30% larger in 2023 than 2022.
- carabiner 3y ago
  Lagging indicator. Hertz is dumping their Teslas and canceled their purchase of 65k Polestars.
  - bryanlarsen 3y ago
    If you want to cherry-pick random anecdotes I'll counter with multi-year waitlists for Hyundai EV9 despite being expensive and ineligible for the $7500 rebate.
    - FirmwareBurner 3y ago
      >Hyundai EV9 despite not being expensive It starts at €70k. In what world is this not expensive? Maybe in Bay Area Fang wages.
      - bryanlarsen 3y ago
        Sorry, typo. It being very expensive makes the wait-lists surprising. If it wasn't expensive wait-lists wouldn't be surprising.
        FirmwareBurner 3y ago
        > It being very expensive makes the wait-lists surprising. Does it? Ferraris, Zondas and Koenigseggs also have big waiting lists. Expensive things to the well off sell easier than average products to the ever shrinking middle class.

ActorNightly 3y ago

I could walk in and buy Model Y any time I want. Not so with Rav 4 Prime. Plugin hybrids are the future.

oohffyvfg 3y ago
tesla fans defending how easy it is to find a Tesla in stock is a new one. grand.
- tempestn 3y ago
  I don't think that's the point they're trying to make.
LightBug1 3y ago
Hah, try doing it via lease ... the supposed 'seamless' experience completely falls down ... I've just spent 5 months handholding a model 3 order, only for it to fall down at the end when Tesla tried to stiff our company for £3k. Ended up leasing a BMW i5 because of the complete waste of time and hassle. I'm glad it wasn't my car but, based on the experience, I wouldn't go near that joke of a company ever again. Lost a repeat customer too. Takeaway: their staff listen more to their robot portal software than they do to rational customer experience. And I know I'm p'ing in the wind ... but Tesla (in my experience) get way too much credit. I've had better experiences with conventional dealerships (and that's saying something considering how bad they are). N=1
- rootusrootus 3y ago
  > I've had better experiences with conventional dealerships I don't know how. I've got dealing with conventional car dealers down to an art form, and it still isn't even remotely comparable. To get a Tesla you order it online and then go in for an appointment to pick it up. Hand them the payment, they already have all the paperwork ready for signatures, they give you the key cards and offer to help you install the app. You accept delivery and drive home. If you want, you can easily be in and out in 15 minutes or less. And the delivery guy doesn't try to sell me anything. No extended warranty, nothing.

repler 3y ago

Test drive a RAV4 Prime. All it needs is more battery capacity, which apparently they are indeed investing in.

wafflerewire 3y ago
RAV4 Prime owner here. I completely agree with wanting more battery capacity. For my use case, it has been a minor complaint. Been very happy overall with it.

ThinkBeat 3y ago

The electric car Toyota is selling now is doing quite well sales wise. (at least in Norway) They have a whole line of them "coming any day now". They have a lot of people who love the Toyota/Lexus brand.

radiator 3y ago

If you mean stop manufacturing Internal Combustion Engines, Toyota have said many times, they do not intend to "catch up to everyone else" with EVs. They have the luxury of sitting and watching their competition leave the market, thus leaving Toyota's road to great profits wide open.

rootusrootus 3y ago
Only works if the competition does indeed leave the market. The risk of staying out while everyone else embraces the next generation technology is a reduction in customer loyalty. Every current Toyota owner who buys a competitor's product is potentially someone who will switch loyalties going forward.