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We talk a lot about software bloat. How good/fast do chips really need to be for defense purposes? Chips are so good now it seems you could be 2-3 generations

We talk a lot about software bloat. How good/fast do chips really need to be for defense purposes? Chips are so good now it seems you could be 2-3 generations back and still get the job done.

makeitdouble 3y ago
These chips are probably aimed first and formost at civil production, in particular for car/plane/boats (for domestic and export needs) and consumer electronics, from rice cookers to door bells etc. For Japan it's a crucial bet, a lot more than other countries in America or the EU as it's the crux of the economy.
- sofixa 3y ago
  > consumer electronics, from rice cookers to door bells I doubt rice cookers and toasters are using the latest chips for TSMC. E.g. the ESP32 microcontrollers are manufactured by TSMC on 40nm, and there are a bunch of different companies that have similarly sized/powerful microcontrollers being manufactured (e.g. STMicro).
  - makeitdouble 3y ago
    If I get your point, the question would why have TSMC make these low end cheaper chip in Japan when they abund on the market ? The whole effort of bringing TSMC factories to Japan was triggered by the shortage a few years ago, when I think a Toyota factories had to slow down as they couldn't get enough chips to meet the production goals. They'll probably rely on TSMC to make the deal work even if external competitors offer better prices or availability in the short term.
    - obmelvin 3y ago
      Isn't this about 6 and 7mm nodes? Aren't those still pretty good nodes with lower costs than the cutting edge (3nm and lower)?
      - makeitdouble 3y ago
        It's planned to produce from 40nm down to 6~7nm. Now, the 6~7nm might end as an empty promise, if TSMC wants to keep more advantage at home.
dragontamer 3y ago
It seems like RADAR can continuously be analyzed and improved with more and more compute power. When RADAR is the eyes and ears on the modern battlefield, you want as many computers on it as possible to find as many targets as possible and to differentiate them.
- marcosdumay 3y ago
  If one is serious about it, there is a clear distinction between verifiable and trusted computation. There's also a less clear distinction between cheap and expensive to verify ones. Just because most equipment must be trusted, it doesn't mean you can't use lots and lots of untrustable hardware.
trashtester 3y ago
As drones (both airial, ground based and naval) take over for human soldiers, state-of-the-art electronics may increase in strategic importance rather than decrease.
- Qwertious 3y ago
  Drones are becoming more important, sure, but will never take over for humans. Humans are immune to cyber-attacks in ways that drones can't be (humans are capable of major autonomy so maintaining connection is less important, for example), but all of that is overshadowed by perhaps the most important strategic feature of human soldiers: Human soldiers can be killed. If e.g. Russia bombed a US military base in <country>, then the US has an instant cassus belli (and is politically forced to respond drastically and be drawn into the war) and <country> knows this, which makes the US military base a far more effective red line against Russia as a result. In other words, human solders act as a political tripwire that more effectively binds allies together.
  - jojobas 3y ago
    Clearly you're unaware of what's going on in Ukraine. Drones are not there to take over for humans, drone-based weapons are ridiculously effective compared with anything before them and there's plenty of space for more computing power to make them even more effective.
  - trashtester 3y ago
    > humans are capable of major autonomy Actually, this is the main reason why drones will be needing more and more compute; to ensure that they can be as autonomous as possible. Whether they will be able to reach or surpass humans in this regard is still disputed by some, especially those who think that the human brain is powered by some kind of non-material soul. > human solders act as a political tripwire This really only applies before a war starts. Once it has started, you want to have the best equipment you can within your budget. Now there are other political reasons why autonomous drones may be resisted, primarily that they can be seen as very scary or even evil by onlookers. But the same could be seen by current remotely piloted drones, but that hasn't stopped the US from frequently using them for assassinations at least since Obama's period. Once drones become able to operate without a human to control them remotely, they will. Especially if jamming limits their ability to communicate.
addicted 3y ago
This makes sense. The counter argument would be that war is a competitive endeavor. So if you do have chips that are 2-3 generations behind what your opponent has access to they will try to design weaponry that takes advantage of this gap.
someguydave 3y ago
Sure but nobody is going to build a brand new factory that implements an old process
a321neo 3y ago
Disassembly of crashed Russian missiles in Ukraine show that they use multiple consumer-grade microcontrollers and DSPs. Western systems engineers would typically have opted for a single aerospace/defense-grade FPGA instead of having so many different chips and interconnects complicating the system. Using Russia's approach you can easily stay many semiconductor manufacturing generations back. Using the Western approach you will prefer staying up to date so you can continue using the latest the latest proprietary manufacturer-supported FPGA tooling.
- mschuster91 3y ago
  Russia's approach has historically always been zerg rushing - they view both people and military tech as disposable, so it has to be extremely cheap, but it doesn't matter if the accuracy loses out. The US, NATO in general, and especially Israel, are the other end of the spectrum: they prefer expensive, but powerful and very accurate weapons (and in the case of vehicles, prioritize survivability). For Western countries, wars are unpopular so they want to keep the fatality rate low, and Israel doesn't have that many people in the first place so their Merkava tank designs focus survivability even more.
  - a321neo 3y ago
    The Merkava has seen some time losses but that was due to open back hatchets and IEDs big enough to flip the entire vehicle.
  - hnthrowaway0328 3y ago
    I'd argue that Russia's approach is not necessarily just human wave tactics. There were a lot of planning done on for, say, the Battle of Kursk.

We talk a lot about software bloat. How good/fast do chips really need to be for defense purposes? Chips are so good now it seems you could be 2-3 generations back and still get the job done.

makeitdouble 3y ago

These chips are probably aimed first and formost at civil production, in particular for car/plane/boats (for domestic and export needs) and consumer electronics, from rice cookers to door bells etc. For Japan it's a crucial bet, a lot more than other countries in America or the EU as it's the crux of the economy.

sofixa 3y ago
> consumer electronics, from rice cookers to door bells I doubt rice cookers and toasters are using the latest chips for TSMC. E.g. the ESP32 microcontrollers are manufactured by TSMC on 40nm, and there are a bunch of different companies that have similarly sized/powerful microcontrollers being manufactured (e.g. STMicro).
- makeitdouble 3y ago
  If I get your point, the question would why have TSMC make these low end cheaper chip in Japan when they abund on the market ? The whole effort of bringing TSMC factories to Japan was triggered by the shortage a few years ago, when I think a Toyota factories had to slow down as they couldn't get enough chips to meet the production goals. They'll probably rely on TSMC to make the deal work even if external competitors offer better prices or availability in the short term.
  - obmelvin 3y ago
    Isn't this about 6 and 7mm nodes? Aren't those still pretty good nodes with lower costs than the cutting edge (3nm and lower)?
    - makeitdouble 3y ago
      It's planned to produce from 40nm down to 6~7nm. Now, the 6~7nm might end as an empty promise, if TSMC wants to keep more advantage at home.

dragontamer 3y ago

It seems like RADAR can continuously be analyzed and improved with more and more compute power. When RADAR is the eyes and ears on the modern battlefield, you want as many computers on it as possible to find as many targets as possible and to differentiate them.

marcosdumay 3y ago
If one is serious about it, there is a clear distinction between verifiable and trusted computation. There's also a less clear distinction between cheap and expensive to verify ones. Just because most equipment must be trusted, it doesn't mean you can't use lots and lots of untrustable hardware.

trashtester 3y ago

As drones (both airial, ground based and naval) take over for human soldiers, state-of-the-art electronics may increase in strategic importance rather than decrease.

Qwertious 3y ago
Drones are becoming more important, sure, but will never take over for humans. Humans are immune to cyber-attacks in ways that drones can't be (humans are capable of major autonomy so maintaining connection is less important, for example), but all of that is overshadowed by perhaps the most important strategic feature of human soldiers: Human soldiers can be killed. If e.g. Russia bombed a US military base in <country>, then the US has an instant cassus belli (and is politically forced to respond drastically and be drawn into the war) and <country> knows this, which makes the US military base a far more effective red line against Russia as a result. In other words, human solders act as a political tripwire that more effectively binds allies together.
- jojobas 3y ago
  Clearly you're unaware of what's going on in Ukraine. Drones are not there to take over for humans, drone-based weapons are ridiculously effective compared with anything before them and there's plenty of space for more computing power to make them even more effective.
- trashtester 3y ago
  > humans are capable of major autonomy Actually, this is the main reason why drones will be needing more and more compute; to ensure that they can be as autonomous as possible. Whether they will be able to reach or surpass humans in this regard is still disputed by some, especially those who think that the human brain is powered by some kind of non-material soul. > human solders act as a political tripwire This really only applies before a war starts. Once it has started, you want to have the best equipment you can within your budget. Now there are other political reasons why autonomous drones may be resisted, primarily that they can be seen as very scary or even evil by onlookers. But the same could be seen by current remotely piloted drones, but that hasn't stopped the US from frequently using them for assassinations at least since Obama's period. Once drones become able to operate without a human to control them remotely, they will. Especially if jamming limits their ability to communicate.

addicted 3y ago

This makes sense. The counter argument would be that war is a competitive endeavor. So if you do have chips that are 2-3 generations behind what your opponent has access to they will try to design weaponry that takes advantage of this gap.

someguydave 3y ago

Sure but nobody is going to build a brand new factory that implements an old process

a321neo 3y ago

Disassembly of crashed Russian missiles in Ukraine show that they use multiple consumer-grade microcontrollers and DSPs. Western systems engineers would typically have opted for a single aerospace/defense-grade FPGA instead of having so many different chips and interconnects complicating the system. Using Russia's approach you can easily stay many semiconductor manufacturing generations back. Using the Western approach you will prefer staying up to date so you can continue using the latest the latest proprietary manufacturer-supported FPGA tooling.

mschuster91 3y ago
Russia's approach has historically always been zerg rushing - they view both people and military tech as disposable, so it has to be extremely cheap, but it doesn't matter if the accuracy loses out. The US, NATO in general, and especially Israel, are the other end of the spectrum: they prefer expensive, but powerful and very accurate weapons (and in the case of vehicles, prioritize survivability). For Western countries, wars are unpopular so they want to keep the fatality rate low, and Israel doesn't have that many people in the first place so their Merkava tank designs focus survivability even more.
- a321neo 3y ago
  The Merkava has seen some time losses but that was due to open back hatchets and IEDs big enough to flip the entire vehicle.
- hnthrowaway0328 3y ago
  I'd argue that Russia's approach is not necessarily just human wave tactics. There were a lot of planning done on for, say, the Battle of Kursk.