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>80% of startups that are "successful" follow this pattern Doesn't this sound like selection bias? If every other startup follows this shoot fornthe moon plan

• goalonetwo 3y ago
  it completely is and that is the point of the comment. You never hear of the 95% of unsuccessful startups But everyone is following the runbook as if they were the successful 1% (not even the successful 5%, they all act as if they are the top 1%)
  • ants_everywhere 3y ago
    > But everyone is following the runbook as if they were the successful 1% (not even the successful 5%, they all act as if they are the top 1%) I think it's because that's what makes sense from the VC's perspective. To the VC each startup is a lottery ticket with a low probability of an outsized success and a high probability of failure. You can burn the startup as hard as you can, because the cost is primarily borne by the startup and the founders. If the startup fails it doesn't matter much to the investor because the portfolio is constructed to be resilient to a large number of failures. What the OP is getting at is: if you look at this from the startup/founder's perspective isn't that kind of a huge waste? And yeah, it is. But I think the idea is that startups and founders aren't pets, they're cattle.