5 ms·

tiny EVs are going to be very popular in europe

by seydor 3y ago

cpursley 3y ago
EVs in Europe and the US are on the downward trend at the moment. I’m not entirely sure why, maybe they are still too expensive.
- sokoloff 3y ago
  The first derivative is still strongly positive. The second derivative is what’s been reported as falling, which is common in the typical S-shaped adoption curve.
  - ZeroGravitas 3y ago
    [flagged]
    - cpursley 3y ago
      Flagged for making assumptions about my intentions and using very unkind and ugly language towards your fellow citizens.
- cpursley 3y ago
  For the downvoters, look it up - this is objectively true and has been well reported. And I’m not saying don’t buy an electric car, just that EV sales have decreased.
  - rsynnott 3y ago
    … Wait, how are you defining ‘downward trend’? The rate of _growth_ has slackened, which you expect as a product category matures, but sales are still very much growing. I’d be a little more sceptical of the media sources doing this well-reporting, if I were you.
    - cpursley 3y ago
      https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/electric-vehicle-demand-charts-7d3089c7 https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/electric-vehicle-demand-c...
      - sokoloff 3y ago
        The legend on that chart says "U.S. electric-vehicle sales, change from a year earlier" That's a plot of the first derivative (which is still positive [+42% at the last measure, meaning for every 100 EVs sold in Nov 2022, there were 142 sold in Nov 2023]) and the slope of that line is a derivative of the first derivative, or a second derivative. tl;dr: EV sales are growing. That rate of growth is slower than it was before.
      - rsynnott 3y ago
        As I said, the rate of growth is decreasing, but sales are still growing. That article is kinda misleadingly couched, tho (I mean, Murdoch media, what can you expect?), and I can see how people could misread it as saying that sales were actually decreasing.
  - wongarsu 3y ago
    I couldn't find anything substantiating this claim, everyone is reporting record sales. What is decreasing is sales growth [1]. As in: each year more EVs are sold than the last year, but the difference to previous year's sales is shrinking 1: https://www.ev-volumes.com/ https://www.ev-volumes.com/
    - ZeroGravitas 3y ago
      Sometimes the difference is still increasing year on year, but due to the higher baseline, the percentage increase has declined.
  - pjc50 3y ago
    No, the absolute sales and percentage of sales is up, it's just the rate of acceleration that's decreased. https://www.ev-volumes.com/ https://www.ev-volumes.com/
    - cpursley 3y ago
      This literally has sections labeled “Lower European Expectations” and “North American fall”.
      - Symbiote 3y ago
        You will need to read the sentences or look at the charts rather than just skim the headings.
      - kergonath 3y ago
        Yes. Poor reporting is incredibly common and most journalists seem to have no clue about the difference between a first and a second derivatives. See also, most articles about the economy.
      - rsynnott 3y ago
        But note that the actual data presented shows an increase in sales.
  - kergonath 3y ago
    “Look it up” is not a good way to make a point. If you are making the claim, then you need to substantiate it.
    - cpursley 3y ago
      I dropped some links into several comments. Should I for every single response? Look it up.
- tpm 3y ago
  In the EU current short-term trends don't matter that much as long as the scheduled fleet emmision rules will come into force as is the current regulation. That means from 1.1.2025, for passenger cars 93,6 g CO2/km average (which is impossible with ICE-only cars of current sizes and technology) and the manufacturer pays a fine for anything above that. But that can be relaxed if they sell at least 25% EVs (0 g CO2/km), and higher percentage of those means higher permissible average emmisions. So the manufacturers will be highly motivated to sell more EVs and we can expect all the big manufacturers will hit the 25% quite soon. Then from 1.1.2030 this goes down to 49,5 g CO2/km and at that point ICEs are goint to be increasingly niche. From 1.1.2035 the limit is 0 g CO2/km.
  - adrianN 3y ago
    It's pretty easy to achieve fleet goals with plugin hybrids, since they have ridiculously low emissions on the standard tests (unlike in reality).
    - tpm 3y ago
      Which is why new vehicles (since 2021) have a On-Board Fuel Consumption Meter and this data is then collected by the EU.
      - adrianN 3y ago
        Oh I didn’t know that. Does the eu do something with the data? Is it just collected to inform some hypothetical future law? In the latter case that will likely be overtaken by the market favoring BEVs
        tpm 3y ago
        There is not a lot of info about that, but as far as I could gather the data started to be collected only last year, so probably not a lot right now.
mcntsh 3y ago
EVs are not really popular in my EU city because they require a dedicated parking space with a charger and most people live in an apartment with none of that.
- pornel 3y ago
  Daily at-home charging is needed only for plug-in hybrids. BEVs can easily do a week of city driving without needing to charge. In my city supermarkets have charging on their parking lots, so my car charges when I'm shopping.
  - netsharc 3y ago
    I wonder if the next invention will be a "powerbank" for cars... rather than those dumb e-scooters littering the sidewalks, how about a giant battery on 4 wheels you can leave next to your car to charge it? When it's close to depletion, just like the e-scooters, a van can come around and take them to a hub to be charged. Or I suppose a car driver can put them in the trunk and return to that hub, in case they're driving that direction anyway (plus, they can collect another one to place in their neighborhood). Sadly it'll probably need protection against people whose denial of the climate crisis involve violence and vandalism.
    - pornel 3y ago
      Charging is so close to being solved, that I don't think we need any new boondoggle. Just build more infrastructure and modern batteries. For road trips, Nio has 10-minute battery swapping stations, but modern 800V BEVs can be recharged in 20 minutes. City use is an even easier case, because most cars will spend hours parked somewhere. If not at home, then in a parking garage at work. There are street-side chargers too. In many cases you don't even need a fast charger.
- BytesAndGears 3y ago
  At least in my city (in NL), there are a bunch of public electric chargers with the street parking around the city. It seems like almost 25% of spots are electric only in my neighborhood
tuvan 3y ago
I agree but it's an interesting problem, things like parking spaces and roads will still have to be made to the size of largest vehicle that will use them and I imagine more cars in the same amount of road will lead to even more traffic.
- luplex 3y ago
  You can have different sizes of parking spaces, for different prices maybe. And the change will probably not increase the amount of cars on the road, because at the same time, bikes and public transport are becoming more attractive in cities all across the continent.
- neoberg 3y ago
  No. There are buses, trucks and vans on the road but not everything is made based on them. In many parking spots you can't park full size vans - and vans are quite popular. In Europe, if you're driving a huge North American truck (which some people do) your parking options are very very limited. We don't build everything for their sizes only because there's some of them on the road.
- pjc50 3y ago
  This is Paris we're talking about. The roads will remain the size that Hausmann built them. https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/mar/31/story-cities-12-paris-baron-haussmann-france-urban-planner-napoleon https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/mar/31/story-cities-...
sharken 3y ago
I'd hardly call a 2 tonnes EV a tiny car, which is the limit in the proposal. The Tesla model 3 is right on that limit with 1.980 Kg, whereas the model Y weighs 2.4 tonnes. In Denmark the model Y is by far the most sold car in 2023, with 1 out of every 10 cars being a model Y. So I think it will be an uphill battle to enact the same law in Denmark.
- resolutebat 3y ago
  Where are you getting those numbers from? Tesla's specs pages say 1777/1840kg and 1911/1981kg for the standard/long-range Model 3 and Model Y respectively: https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/model3/en_cn/GUID-56562137-FC31-4110-A13C-9A9FC6657BF0.html https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/model3/en_cn/GUID-5656213... https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/modely/en_cn/GUID-E47C4A6D-528E-419C-8C57-FD3864644C34.html https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/modely/en_cn/GUID-E47C4A6... The Model 3 is undoubtedly still a heavy car, but the bulk of that is the battery pack, so the weight will go down as battery tech improves. Maybe it already has compared to your source?
  - sharken 3y ago
    You are absolutely correct, it was the Model S that I mistook for the Model Y from the source https://insideevs.com/news/527966/electric-cars-from-heaviest-lightest/ https://insideevs.com/news/527966/electric-cars-from-heavies... I wonder what made the Parisians choose 2 tonnes, lowering the limit could certainly be justified. The Model 3 and Y weigh twice that of my current drive, which is quite the difference.

tiny EVs are going to be very popular in europe

by seydor 3y ago

tiny EVs are going to be very popular in europe

EVs in Europe and the US are on the downward trend at the moment. I’m not entirely sure why, maybe they are still too expensive.

sokoloff 3y ago
The first derivative is still strongly positive. The second derivative is what’s been reported as falling, which is common in the typical S-shaped adoption curve.
- ZeroGravitas 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - cpursley 3y ago
    Flagged for making assumptions about my intentions and using very unkind and ugly language towards your fellow citizens.
cpursley 3y ago
For the downvoters, look it up - this is objectively true and has been well reported. And I’m not saying don’t buy an electric car, just that EV sales have decreased.
- rsynnott 3y ago
  … Wait, how are you defining ‘downward trend’? The rate of _growth_ has slackened, which you expect as a product category matures, but sales are still very much growing. I’d be a little more sceptical of the media sources doing this well-reporting, if I were you.
  - cpursley 3y ago
    https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/electric-vehicle-demand-charts-7d3089c7 https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/electric-vehicle-demand-c...
    - sokoloff 3y ago
      The legend on that chart says "U.S. electric-vehicle sales, change from a year earlier" That's a plot of the first derivative (which is still positive [+42% at the last measure, meaning for every 100 EVs sold in Nov 2022, there were 142 sold in Nov 2023]) and the slope of that line is a derivative of the first derivative, or a second derivative. tl;dr: EV sales are growing. That rate of growth is slower than it was before.
    - rsynnott 3y ago
      As I said, the rate of growth is decreasing, but sales are still growing. That article is kinda misleadingly couched, tho (I mean, Murdoch media, what can you expect?), and I can see how people could misread it as saying that sales were actually decreasing.
- wongarsu 3y ago
  I couldn't find anything substantiating this claim, everyone is reporting record sales. What is decreasing is sales growth [1]. As in: each year more EVs are sold than the last year, but the difference to previous year's sales is shrinking 1: https://www.ev-volumes.com/ https://www.ev-volumes.com/
  - ZeroGravitas 3y ago
    Sometimes the difference is still increasing year on year, but due to the higher baseline, the percentage increase has declined.
- pjc50 3y ago
  No, the absolute sales and percentage of sales is up, it's just the rate of acceleration that's decreased. https://www.ev-volumes.com/ https://www.ev-volumes.com/
  - cpursley 3y ago
    This literally has sections labeled “Lower European Expectations” and “North American fall”.
    - Symbiote 3y ago
      You will need to read the sentences or look at the charts rather than just skim the headings.
    - kergonath 3y ago
      Yes. Poor reporting is incredibly common and most journalists seem to have no clue about the difference between a first and a second derivatives. See also, most articles about the economy.
    - rsynnott 3y ago
      But note that the actual data presented shows an increase in sales.
- kergonath 3y ago
  “Look it up” is not a good way to make a point. If you are making the claim, then you need to substantiate it.
  - cpursley 3y ago
    I dropped some links into several comments. Should I for every single response? Look it up.
tpm 3y ago
In the EU current short-term trends don't matter that much as long as the scheduled fleet emmision rules will come into force as is the current regulation. That means from 1.1.2025, for passenger cars 93,6 g CO2/km average (which is impossible with ICE-only cars of current sizes and technology) and the manufacturer pays a fine for anything above that. But that can be relaxed if they sell at least 25% EVs (0 g CO2/km), and higher percentage of those means higher permissible average emmisions. So the manufacturers will be highly motivated to sell more EVs and we can expect all the big manufacturers will hit the 25% quite soon. Then from 1.1.2030 this goes down to 49,5 g CO2/km and at that point ICEs are goint to be increasingly niche. From 1.1.2035 the limit is 0 g CO2/km.
- adrianN 3y ago
  It's pretty easy to achieve fleet goals with plugin hybrids, since they have ridiculously low emissions on the standard tests (unlike in reality).
  - tpm 3y ago
    Which is why new vehicles (since 2021) have a On-Board Fuel Consumption Meter and this data is then collected by the EU.
    - adrianN 3y ago
      Oh I didn’t know that. Does the eu do something with the data? Is it just collected to inform some hypothetical future law? In the latter case that will likely be overtaken by the market favoring BEVs
      - tpm 3y ago
        There is not a lot of info about that, but as far as I could gather the data started to be collected only last year, so probably not a lot right now.

mcntsh 3y ago

EVs are not really popular in my EU city because they require a dedicated parking space with a charger and most people live in an apartment with none of that.

pornel 3y ago
Daily at-home charging is needed only for plug-in hybrids. BEVs can easily do a week of city driving without needing to charge. In my city supermarkets have charging on their parking lots, so my car charges when I'm shopping.
- netsharc 3y ago
  I wonder if the next invention will be a "powerbank" for cars... rather than those dumb e-scooters littering the sidewalks, how about a giant battery on 4 wheels you can leave next to your car to charge it? When it's close to depletion, just like the e-scooters, a van can come around and take them to a hub to be charged. Or I suppose a car driver can put them in the trunk and return to that hub, in case they're driving that direction anyway (plus, they can collect another one to place in their neighborhood). Sadly it'll probably need protection against people whose denial of the climate crisis involve violence and vandalism.
  - pornel 3y ago
    Charging is so close to being solved, that I don't think we need any new boondoggle. Just build more infrastructure and modern batteries. For road trips, Nio has 10-minute battery swapping stations, but modern 800V BEVs can be recharged in 20 minutes. City use is an even easier case, because most cars will spend hours parked somewhere. If not at home, then in a parking garage at work. There are street-side chargers too. In many cases you don't even need a fast charger.
BytesAndGears 3y ago
At least in my city (in NL), there are a bunch of public electric chargers with the street parking around the city. It seems like almost 25% of spots are electric only in my neighborhood

tuvan 3y ago

I agree but it's an interesting problem, things like parking spaces and roads will still have to be made to the size of largest vehicle that will use them and I imagine more cars in the same amount of road will lead to even more traffic.

luplex 3y ago
You can have different sizes of parking spaces, for different prices maybe. And the change will probably not increase the amount of cars on the road, because at the same time, bikes and public transport are becoming more attractive in cities all across the continent.
neoberg 3y ago
No. There are buses, trucks and vans on the road but not everything is made based on them. In many parking spots you can't park full size vans - and vans are quite popular. In Europe, if you're driving a huge North American truck (which some people do) your parking options are very very limited. We don't build everything for their sizes only because there's some of them on the road.
pjc50 3y ago
This is Paris we're talking about. The roads will remain the size that Hausmann built them. https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/mar/31/story-cities-12-paris-baron-haussmann-france-urban-planner-napoleon https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/mar/31/story-cities-...

sharken 3y ago

I'd hardly call a 2 tonnes EV a tiny car, which is the limit in the proposal. The Tesla model 3 is right on that limit with 1.980 Kg, whereas the model Y weighs 2.4 tonnes. In Denmark the model Y is by far the most sold car in 2023, with 1 out of every 10 cars being a model Y. So I think it will be an uphill battle to enact the same law in Denmark.

resolutebat 3y ago
Where are you getting those numbers from? Tesla's specs pages say 1777/1840kg and 1911/1981kg for the standard/long-range Model 3 and Model Y respectively: https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/model3/en_cn/GUID-56562137-FC31-4110-A13C-9A9FC6657BF0.html https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/model3/en_cn/GUID-5656213... https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/modely/en_cn/GUID-E47C4A6D-528E-419C-8C57-FD3864644C34.html https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/modely/en_cn/GUID-E47C4A6... The Model 3 is undoubtedly still a heavy car, but the bulk of that is the battery pack, so the weight will go down as battery tech improves. Maybe it already has compared to your source?
- sharken 3y ago
  You are absolutely correct, it was the Model S that I mistook for the Model Y from the source https://insideevs.com/news/527966/electric-cars-from-heaviest-lightest/ https://insideevs.com/news/527966/electric-cars-from-heavies... I wonder what made the Parisians choose 2 tonnes, lowering the limit could certainly be justified. The Model 3 and Y weigh twice that of my current drive, which is quite the difference.