10 ms·

There are certainly a lot of DefCon attendees who think that this describes them. In my observation they are all very incorrect, usually humorously so fortunate

by c0pium 3y ago

There are certainly a lot of DefCon attendees who think that this describes them. In my observation they are all very incorrect, usually humorously so fortunately.

smt88 3y ago
My first thought was that GP was saying DefCon attendees would be counting cards, which is an effective and legal way to beat the house[1] (until you're caught and banned from the casino). 1. https://www.freep.com/story/entertainment/nightlife/2016/04/05/mark-pilarski-casinos-counting-cards/82538428/ https://www.freep.com/story/entertainment/nightlife/2016/04/...
- daveguy 3y ago
  Casinos in Vegas use too many decks and reshuffle frequently enough that there is no edge gained over the house when card counting.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - Kirby64 3y ago
    This is not true. Besides continuous shuffler machines, most casinos have 6 or 8 deck games that have plenty of 'penetration' (card counter term for depth into the deck that the cut card is placed) to offer an edge if you properly card count. There's also a big game to be played where rubes think they can card count and instead lose tons of money attempting to do so. The problem with card counting generally is that the casino has infinite money and never runs out, thereby they can sustain large expected value swings... whereas you need an enormous bankroll to handle those swings, assuming they don't throw you out before that happens.
    - throwaway2037 3y ago
      The book "Bringing Down the House" by Ben Mezrich explains in layman's terms how card counting works for blackjack.
  - clansimus 3y ago
    There's plenty of doubledeck blackjack with good penetration in Vegas, especially in high limits rooms. The problem nowadays is that the casinos are also counting, and the patterns are simple and easy to track with the tech we all have. Changing your bet even a couple times based on the count can have the pit boss getting a call to remove you.
- serf 3y ago
  'legal' has no meaning here when it's against every single casino policy in the world.
  - ncallaway 3y ago
    Uh, yes, it does? There’s a huge difference between: “if you do X, you will be asked to leave” and “if you do X, the police will arrest you” Like, when I invite someone over to a dinner party, it is against my policy to insult my dog. If you do that I will kick you out (not actually, he’s a dumb klutz, you can insult him all you want), but that doesn’t make it illegal to insult my dog.
    - photonthug 3y ago
      True but not relevant. Police and legality do not need to be involved with certain kinds of casino justice. Security may just offer to beat your ass if you won't cease and desist, avoiding the paperwork. Could be bluff but they know where cameras are and have cop friends..
      - tptacek 3y ago
        Caesars has a $9.3B market cap. They're not beating anybody up for "casino justice".
      - monkeywork 3y ago
        You need to check a calendar and see the current year - the days of Casinos' roughing up card counters is long long long gone. Might be great for your screenplay or fan fiction but doesn't match reality.
        photonthug 3y ago
        Strange that you can be so confident about this with private security when even actual police are sometimes involved in cases of excessive force, corruption, coverups. Besides, whatever your personal knowledge/experience is it can't be vast enough to prove a negative here, and only one counter example is needed. Regardless of the year I think you might want to reconsider your overly confident notions about fiction/reality or at least the condescending tone. I don't know what is institutionalized in what places, but have been threatened by casino security. Fuck around and find out I guess
- throwaway2037 3y ago
  > effective ... way to beat the house Statistically, it is not effective. Your card counting needs to be (basically) perfect, and you need very deep pockets to handle extended drawdowns.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
Eji1700 3y ago
Vegas makes a fuckload of money off everyone who thinks they’re smart but doesn’t understand statistics
- shiandow 3y ago
  They probably make quite a lot off people who think they understand statistics as well.
  - vsnf 3y ago
    I'd be willing to be that the intersection of people who think this and then choose to engage in gambling anyway, is probably one of the highest grossing demographics that exist.
    - TeMPOraL 3y ago
      If true, we'll eventually see casinos sponsoring statistics MOOCs or other forms of relevant education.
- IshKebab 3y ago
  Not just statistic. There are plenty of smart defcon people who understand statistics but don't understand that if you start winning they'll just kick you out.
  - buzzert 3y ago
    Not sure that's true, actually. The usual strategy appears to be to comp the gambler with generous stays at the casino they're a patron of, with the expectation that they'll dump their winnings back in the next day. Taken with a grain of salt, as my only knowledge of this is via Hollywood movies. It does make sense from a game theory perspective though.
  - kuboble 3y ago
    They don't kick you out for being lucky. The only reason to kick you out would be if they believed you somehow have an edge on them. The customer who got lucky at first and is willing to try to be lucky again and again is the best customer for the casinos.

by c0pium 3y ago

There are certainly a lot of DefCon attendees who think that this describes them. In my observation they are all very incorrect, usually humorously so fortunately.

smt88 3y ago

My first thought was that GP was saying DefCon attendees would be counting cards, which is an effective and legal way to beat the house[1] (until you're caught and banned from the casino). 1. https://www.freep.com/story/entertainment/nightlife/2016/04/05/mark-pilarski-casinos-counting-cards/82538428/ https://www.freep.com/story/entertainment/nightlife/2016/04/...

daveguy 3y ago
Casinos in Vegas use too many decks and reshuffle frequently enough that there is no edge gained over the house when card counting.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- Kirby64 3y ago
  This is not true. Besides continuous shuffler machines, most casinos have 6 or 8 deck games that have plenty of 'penetration' (card counter term for depth into the deck that the cut card is placed) to offer an edge if you properly card count. There's also a big game to be played where rubes think they can card count and instead lose tons of money attempting to do so. The problem with card counting generally is that the casino has infinite money and never runs out, thereby they can sustain large expected value swings... whereas you need an enormous bankroll to handle those swings, assuming they don't throw you out before that happens.
  - throwaway2037 3y ago
    The book "Bringing Down the House" by Ben Mezrich explains in layman's terms how card counting works for blackjack.
- clansimus 3y ago
  There's plenty of doubledeck blackjack with good penetration in Vegas, especially in high limits rooms. The problem nowadays is that the casinos are also counting, and the patterns are simple and easy to track with the tech we all have. Changing your bet even a couple times based on the count can have the pit boss getting a call to remove you.
serf 3y ago
'legal' has no meaning here when it's against every single casino policy in the world.
- ncallaway 3y ago
  Uh, yes, it does? There’s a huge difference between: “if you do X, you will be asked to leave” and “if you do X, the police will arrest you” Like, when I invite someone over to a dinner party, it is against my policy to insult my dog. If you do that I will kick you out (not actually, he’s a dumb klutz, you can insult him all you want), but that doesn’t make it illegal to insult my dog.
  - photonthug 3y ago
    True but not relevant. Police and legality do not need to be involved with certain kinds of casino justice. Security may just offer to beat your ass if you won't cease and desist, avoiding the paperwork. Could be bluff but they know where cameras are and have cop friends..
    - tptacek 3y ago
      Caesars has a $9.3B market cap. They're not beating anybody up for "casino justice".
    - monkeywork 3y ago
      You need to check a calendar and see the current year - the days of Casinos' roughing up card counters is long long long gone. Might be great for your screenplay or fan fiction but doesn't match reality.
      - photonthug 3y ago
        Strange that you can be so confident about this with private security when even actual police are sometimes involved in cases of excessive force, corruption, coverups. Besides, whatever your personal knowledge/experience is it can't be vast enough to prove a negative here, and only one counter example is needed. Regardless of the year I think you might want to reconsider your overly confident notions about fiction/reality or at least the condescending tone. I don't know what is institutionalized in what places, but have been threatened by casino security. Fuck around and find out I guess
throwaway2037 3y ago
> effective ... way to beat the house Statistically, it is not effective. Your card counting needs to be (basically) perfect, and you need very deep pockets to handle extended drawdowns.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

Eji1700 3y ago

Vegas makes a fuckload of money off everyone who thinks they’re smart but doesn’t understand statistics

shiandow 3y ago
They probably make quite a lot off people who think they understand statistics as well.
- vsnf 3y ago
  I'd be willing to be that the intersection of people who think this and then choose to engage in gambling anyway, is probably one of the highest grossing demographics that exist.
  - TeMPOraL 3y ago
    If true, we'll eventually see casinos sponsoring statistics MOOCs or other forms of relevant education.
IshKebab 3y ago
Not just statistic. There are plenty of smart defcon people who understand statistics but don't understand that if you start winning they'll just kick you out.
- buzzert 3y ago
  Not sure that's true, actually. The usual strategy appears to be to comp the gambler with generous stays at the casino they're a patron of, with the expectation that they'll dump their winnings back in the next day. Taken with a grain of salt, as my only knowledge of this is via Hollywood movies. It does make sense from a game theory perspective though.
- kuboble 3y ago
  They don't kick you out for being lucky. The only reason to kick you out would be if they believed you somehow have an edge on them. The customer who got lucky at first and is willing to try to be lucky again and again is the best customer for the casinos.