4 ms·

The thing I often think about is while the demands for an orbital class vehicle quickly become untenable, ICBM's stay viable for a lot longer. I don't know if M

The thing I often think about is while the demands for an orbital class vehicle quickly become untenable, ICBM's stay viable for a lot longer. I don't know if MAD is more or less stable without the prospect of space exploration.

nine_k 3y ago
I would argue that situation is usually more stable with less secrecy, so a lack of spy satellites would not be beneficial. Absence of comm satellites would also help fragment the world and make the idea of a surprise attacks more enticing.
- Aeolun 3y ago
  Not beneficial, but I imagine you’d just see a lot more spyplanes.
  - nine_k 3y ago
    Spy planes can be shot from the ground, or with another plane. This is closer to an act of hot war :( Orbital space (around modern Earth) is ex-territorial, so killing a spy satellite would be seen as an act of aggression, not legitimate defense. This holds back "kinetic action" in near-Earth space.
    - eru 3y ago
      > Orbital space (around modern Earth) is ex-territorial, [...] That's a historical accident of arrangements on earth (so less useful in the Fermi-paradox / filter debate), and could easily have gone differently. Ie air space could also have been seen as ex-territorial.
      - wolfram74 3y ago
        Assuming something like air space territories in these other cultures, extending them out to infinity seems... tricky. Wouldn't it imply that the ownership of various celestial bodies changes with time? My recollection of how it evolved on Earth was the soviet's more asked forgiveness than permission and eisenhower basically shrugged and said "whatever, at least our spy satellites can go over you too"
        eru 3y ago
        We can make certain assumptions guided by game theory and ideas about evolution to speculate what aliens might or might not do. See also how for us earthlings the moon is considered the common property of all mankind or something like that. And that's all well and good as long as no one can actually reach it well enough to make use of it; but I predict as soon as we have useful moonbases, we will move to a conception that's closer to 'possession is nine tenth of the law', if not outright 'might makes right'. If not de-jure, then definitely at least de-facto.

nine_k 3y ago

I would argue that situation is usually more stable with less secrecy, so a lack of spy satellites would not be beneficial. Absence of comm satellites would also help fragment the world and make the idea of a surprise attacks more enticing.

Aeolun 3y ago
Not beneficial, but I imagine you’d just see a lot more spyplanes.
- nine_k 3y ago
  Spy planes can be shot from the ground, or with another plane. This is closer to an act of hot war :( Orbital space (around modern Earth) is ex-territorial, so killing a spy satellite would be seen as an act of aggression, not legitimate defense. This holds back "kinetic action" in near-Earth space.
  - eru 3y ago
    > Orbital space (around modern Earth) is ex-territorial, [...] That's a historical accident of arrangements on earth (so less useful in the Fermi-paradox / filter debate), and could easily have gone differently. Ie air space could also have been seen as ex-territorial.
    - wolfram74 3y ago
      Assuming something like air space territories in these other cultures, extending them out to infinity seems... tricky. Wouldn't it imply that the ownership of various celestial bodies changes with time? My recollection of how it evolved on Earth was the soviet's more asked forgiveness than permission and eisenhower basically shrugged and said "whatever, at least our spy satellites can go over you too"
      - eru 3y ago
        We can make certain assumptions guided by game theory and ideas about evolution to speculate what aliens might or might not do. See also how for us earthlings the moon is considered the common property of all mankind or something like that. And that's all well and good as long as no one can actually reach it well enough to make use of it; but I predict as soon as we have useful moonbases, we will move to a conception that's closer to 'possession is nine tenth of the law', if not outright 'might makes right'. If not de-jure, then definitely at least de-facto.