4 ms·

TL;DR: people in higher income societies have more children if they have good access to childcare and education?

by jpm_sd 3y ago

A_D_E_P_T 3y ago
I recently received an invite to work in Cambridge, England, for a year. (This is a simplification of a more complex situation, but I'll leave it at that.) I have two very young kids. It looks like I'll have to decline the invitation, as it turns out that nursery childcare in Cambride costs well over $1000 per child per month. (e.g., https://www.montessoricambridge.co.uk/admissions/fees-and-sessions https://www.montessoricambridge.co.uk/admissions/fees-and-se... --- and these guys, at ~$1600/month/child, are far from the most expensive.) In the developed world, in an upper middle class home, having children has become something akin to an extravagance: Very expensive, and quite uncommon. I'm the only one in my peer group with children, and I have two siblings and six cousins who are all childless in their thirties.
- brnt 3y ago
  This is a normal rate in the Netherlands too.
  - trgn 3y ago
    Where is it cheaper? In the USA, 1k/child is on the low end I think.
    - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
      That’s what I’m paying for my niece in…Spokane. Actually it’s more like $1.2k now. Hardly known as a rich city.
- logicchains 3y ago
  >In the developed world You mean the western world. The UAE has one of the highest GDPs per capita globally and yet for $1000/month you could hire a full-time live-in nanny. The difference is western countries generally have much stricter restrictions on immigration from poorer countries, and high minimum wages.
  - jamiek88 3y ago
    No, just cos you can exploit some poor Sri Lankan woman in the Middle East doesn’t make that a solution everywhere. Leaving their own children to raise someone else’s while being treated like a middle ages servant is absolutely not what we should be encouraging. I work with a non profit that helps those women escape those places once their passport is stolen. Not all ‘masters and ma’ams’ are abusive but a large percentage are.
    - Terr_ 3y ago
      That reminds me of living in Hong Kong in the '90s, I think the number one job title of the entire workforce went to "Amahs"--live-in maids/housekeepers--generally women from the Philippines and remitting money back home, often to children they seldom see. Not nearly as terrible as what I hear about places like Dubai today, but the workers in HK still preferred to be employed by visiting westerners since it meant better treatment.
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    Any country where you can easily utilize undeveloped/developing world labor is going to have cheaper labor costs for unskilled or semi-skilled work. So Singapore, Hong Kong get this advantage also.
- Blahah 3y ago
  Most children aged 3+ are entitled to a few days of free childcare/nursery in the UK, but it's unlikely that a montessori school accepts the government scheme. They may do though, if you email them. Childcare for the remaining two days is at least more affordable, and if your job offer was from the university they also offer free childcare, as do many employers (again worth asking if it wasn't mentioned in the job offer).
  - A_D_E_P_T 3y ago
    Thanks for the tips. Unfortunately, my visa would have a "no recourse to public funds" note -- so I wouldn't be able to avail myself of any reimbursement scheme. Besides, "3+" is also a problem, as one of mine is much younger than that. (The difficulty of raising children is naturally front-loaded; it starts out very hard, and gets easier and easier as they grow. What's interesting is that the UK assistance plan only kicks in as things get much easier. The difference between a two year old and a three year old is vast.) The University's childcare scheme is certainly not free -- it's a whopping $1840/child/month. https://www.childcare.admin.cam.ac.uk/nursery-fees https://www.childcare.admin.cam.ac.uk/nursery-fees If you're an employee, they take it out of your salary. It's not even discounted. But they charge for it "before income tax, and that's where your savings come in." I'm not joking. Imagine spending $3700/month just on daycare.
    - nytesky 3y ago
      Where do you live now with cheap childcare? We live in a DC suburb, and daycare was at least $1600/kid (we have 3, though only 2 at a time in daycare), and when they were infants it’s $2k.
    - TeMPOraL 3y ago
      Daycare costs are exactly what stopped my wife and I from moving to UK, and instead had me accept a significant salary cut in order to negotiate fully remote work. Parallel reply asks where do you live now with cheap childcare, giving number like $1600/kid. Here in Kraków, Poland, it's more like 1400 PLN (~$325), and most private facilities are enrolled in a program that makes the city cover half of that. At kindergarten level, there's enough good, public facilities available, that you only have to pay if you want some usual/experimental facility. Of course, there's a cost-of-living difference between Poland and UK/US, but it's not that big - relatively speaking, daycare here seems 2-4x cheaper anyway. It's one of increasingly many things that make me think Poland is the goldilocks zone of Europe - all the benefits of first-world development, with little to no drawbacks.
- jvanderbot 3y ago
  I have declined offers to interview with very-close-to dream companies because they wish for on site employees, and my kids cannot be uprooted at this time. Which would be fine if I could tune for intrinsic reward vs extrinsic in my current situation. Part time, startups, taking a chance at consulting, etc. No dice with this child care cost.
- dahart 3y ago
  I was thinking of going back to get my PhD after a few years of working, right when I had a 2 year old and a newborn. I applied and was offered the best fellowship they had, but then I found out that the university’s health insurance plan for me didn’t cover my children, and the cost of covering the kids alone exceeded their generous fellowship. Negative money left for childcare, rent and food. Sadly it wasn’t even remotely possible. I even happened to know the dean of the graduate school through a childhood friend, and told him this story, and he shook his head and said “I know; it’s a problem. I’m sorry!”
- 11101010001100 3y ago
  As luck would have it, I was able to move to where childcare is essentially free. We are certainly compromising in other areas, but for now, it has been a net positive.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  I mean, ya $1-1.6k/month is expensive. But that seems normal for Seattle, maybe even a little cheap. It’s basically that price already in every American HCOL city.
uniqueuid 3y ago
I would say that's not the key takeaway; it's about the relationship between income and children within a country. From the conclusion: "Past fertility research largely focused on understanding fertility decline over time and the negative cross-country relationship between income and fertility. The most important mechanism in explaining these patterns was the quantity-quality tradeoff. However, much has changed over the last few decades. In particular, fertility is no longer negatively related to income across high-income countries. Instead, family policy, cooperative fathers, favorable social norms, and flexible labor markets have become key determinants of fertility choice. Thus, a new era of fertility research has begun."
- tuatoru 3y ago
  Yes. Off topic, but take a look across countries for example Austria and Switzerland. Similar geography, language, culture, ethnicities and religions, very similar total fertility rates, but in Austria childcare is cheap (~3% of average wage) and in Switzerland, expensive (~60% or more). Conclusion: childcare cost is not causative. 1. Austria and Switzerland both have TFR of 1.5 according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fertility_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fer... 2. "Switzerland has one of the most expensive childcare systems in the developed world and also gets bad marks on parental leave, according to a report by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF)." https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/society/switzerland-among-worst-in-the-world-for-childcare-support/46716136 https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/society/switzerland-among-worst...
apwell23 3y ago
This is very counter to reality . In high income societies ppl who have kids are often the ones the without good access to childcare and education. People have less kids as you move up the income spectrum. Prerequisite to having kids is removing choice and meaning in life.
- VirusNewbie 3y ago
  Why does Isreal have such a high birthrate?
  - pydry 3y ago
    Orthodox Jews, who do not share the same education system: https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-israel-former-ultra-orthodox-jews-demand-basic-education/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-israel-former-ultra-orthodo...
    - loeg 3y ago
      And Muslims?
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - apwell23 3y ago
    removing choice. having kids is not something ppl actively choose in most cultures. Its just a part of life.
- logicchains 3y ago
  "Good access to education" means more time spent in formal schooling, and later marriage. This alone accounts for most of the decrease in fertility; even if the probability of having children per year between two groups is constant, if one group marries at 25 on average and the other at 35, the first group will be 3x more likely to have children (since it has 15 years until 40, the rough end of fertility, while the other has just 5 years until 40).
- 3y ago

TL;DR: people in higher income societies have more children if they have good access to childcare and education?

by jpm_sd 3y ago

TL;DR: people in higher income societies have more children if they have good access to childcare and education?

I recently received an invite to work in Cambridge, England, for a year. (This is a simplification of a more complex situation, but I'll leave it at that.) I have two very young kids. It looks like I'll have to decline the invitation, as it turns out that nursery childcare in Cambride costs well over $1000 per child per month. (e.g., https://www.montessoricambridge.co.uk/admissions/fees-and-sessions https://www.montessoricambridge.co.uk/admissions/fees-and-se... --- and these guys, at ~$1600/month/child, are far from the most expensive.) In the developed world, in an upper middle class home, having children has become something akin to an extravagance: Very expensive, and quite uncommon. I'm the only one in my peer group with children, and I have two siblings and six cousins who are all childless in their thirties.

brnt 3y ago
This is a normal rate in the Netherlands too.
- trgn 3y ago
  Where is it cheaper? In the USA, 1k/child is on the low end I think.
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    That’s what I’m paying for my niece in…Spokane. Actually it’s more like $1.2k now. Hardly known as a rich city.
logicchains 3y ago
>In the developed world You mean the western world. The UAE has one of the highest GDPs per capita globally and yet for $1000/month you could hire a full-time live-in nanny. The difference is western countries generally have much stricter restrictions on immigration from poorer countries, and high minimum wages.
- jamiek88 3y ago
  No, just cos you can exploit some poor Sri Lankan woman in the Middle East doesn’t make that a solution everywhere. Leaving their own children to raise someone else’s while being treated like a middle ages servant is absolutely not what we should be encouraging. I work with a non profit that helps those women escape those places once their passport is stolen. Not all ‘masters and ma’ams’ are abusive but a large percentage are.
  - Terr_ 3y ago
    That reminds me of living in Hong Kong in the '90s, I think the number one job title of the entire workforce went to "Amahs"--live-in maids/housekeepers--generally women from the Philippines and remitting money back home, often to children they seldom see. Not nearly as terrible as what I hear about places like Dubai today, but the workers in HK still preferred to be employed by visiting westerners since it meant better treatment.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  Any country where you can easily utilize undeveloped/developing world labor is going to have cheaper labor costs for unskilled or semi-skilled work. So Singapore, Hong Kong get this advantage also.
Blahah 3y ago
Most children aged 3+ are entitled to a few days of free childcare/nursery in the UK, but it's unlikely that a montessori school accepts the government scheme. They may do though, if you email them. Childcare for the remaining two days is at least more affordable, and if your job offer was from the university they also offer free childcare, as do many employers (again worth asking if it wasn't mentioned in the job offer).
- A_D_E_P_T 3y ago
  Thanks for the tips. Unfortunately, my visa would have a "no recourse to public funds" note -- so I wouldn't be able to avail myself of any reimbursement scheme. Besides, "3+" is also a problem, as one of mine is much younger than that. (The difficulty of raising children is naturally front-loaded; it starts out very hard, and gets easier and easier as they grow. What's interesting is that the UK assistance plan only kicks in as things get much easier. The difference between a two year old and a three year old is vast.) The University's childcare scheme is certainly not free -- it's a whopping $1840/child/month. https://www.childcare.admin.cam.ac.uk/nursery-fees https://www.childcare.admin.cam.ac.uk/nursery-fees If you're an employee, they take it out of your salary. It's not even discounted. But they charge for it "before income tax, and that's where your savings come in." I'm not joking. Imagine spending $3700/month just on daycare.
  - nytesky 3y ago
    Where do you live now with cheap childcare? We live in a DC suburb, and daycare was at least $1600/kid (we have 3, though only 2 at a time in daycare), and when they were infants it’s $2k.
  - TeMPOraL 3y ago
    Daycare costs are exactly what stopped my wife and I from moving to UK, and instead had me accept a significant salary cut in order to negotiate fully remote work. Parallel reply asks where do you live now with cheap childcare, giving number like $1600/kid. Here in Kraków, Poland, it's more like 1400 PLN (~$325), and most private facilities are enrolled in a program that makes the city cover half of that. At kindergarten level, there's enough good, public facilities available, that you only have to pay if you want some usual/experimental facility. Of course, there's a cost-of-living difference between Poland and UK/US, but it's not that big - relatively speaking, daycare here seems 2-4x cheaper anyway. It's one of increasingly many things that make me think Poland is the goldilocks zone of Europe - all the benefits of first-world development, with little to no drawbacks.
jvanderbot 3y ago
I have declined offers to interview with very-close-to dream companies because they wish for on site employees, and my kids cannot be uprooted at this time. Which would be fine if I could tune for intrinsic reward vs extrinsic in my current situation. Part time, startups, taking a chance at consulting, etc. No dice with this child care cost.
dahart 3y ago
I was thinking of going back to get my PhD after a few years of working, right when I had a 2 year old and a newborn. I applied and was offered the best fellowship they had, but then I found out that the university’s health insurance plan for me didn’t cover my children, and the cost of covering the kids alone exceeded their generous fellowship. Negative money left for childcare, rent and food. Sadly it wasn’t even remotely possible. I even happened to know the dean of the graduate school through a childhood friend, and told him this story, and he shook his head and said “I know; it’s a problem. I’m sorry!”
11101010001100 3y ago
As luck would have it, I was able to move to where childcare is essentially free. We are certainly compromising in other areas, but for now, it has been a net positive.
seanmcdirmid 3y ago
I mean, ya $1-1.6k/month is expensive. But that seems normal for Seattle, maybe even a little cheap. It’s basically that price already in every American HCOL city.

uniqueuid 3y ago

I would say that's not the key takeaway; it's about the relationship between income and children within a country. From the conclusion: "Past fertility research largely focused on understanding fertility decline over time and the negative cross-country relationship between income and fertility. The most important mechanism in explaining these patterns was the quantity-quality tradeoff. However, much has changed over the last few decades. In particular, fertility is no longer negatively related to income across high-income countries. Instead, family policy, cooperative fathers, favorable social norms, and flexible labor markets have become key determinants of fertility choice. Thus, a new era of fertility research has begun."

tuatoru 3y ago
Yes. Off topic, but take a look across countries for example Austria and Switzerland. Similar geography, language, culture, ethnicities and religions, very similar total fertility rates, but in Austria childcare is cheap (~3% of average wage) and in Switzerland, expensive (~60% or more). Conclusion: childcare cost is not causative. 1. Austria and Switzerland both have TFR of 1.5 according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fertility_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fer... 2. "Switzerland has one of the most expensive childcare systems in the developed world and also gets bad marks on parental leave, according to a report by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF)." https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/society/switzerland-among-worst-in-the-world-for-childcare-support/46716136 https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/society/switzerland-among-worst...

apwell23 3y ago

This is very counter to reality . In high income societies ppl who have kids are often the ones the without good access to childcare and education. People have less kids as you move up the income spectrum. Prerequisite to having kids is removing choice and meaning in life.

VirusNewbie 3y ago
Why does Isreal have such a high birthrate?
- pydry 3y ago
  Orthodox Jews, who do not share the same education system: https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-israel-former-ultra-orthodox-jews-demand-basic-education/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-israel-former-ultra-orthodo...
  - loeg 3y ago
    And Muslims?
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- apwell23 3y ago
  removing choice. having kids is not something ppl actively choose in most cultures. Its just a part of life.
logicchains 3y ago
"Good access to education" means more time spent in formal schooling, and later marriage. This alone accounts for most of the decrease in fertility; even if the probability of having children per year between two groups is constant, if one group marries at 25 on average and the other at 35, the first group will be 3x more likely to have children (since it has 15 years until 40, the rough end of fertility, while the other has just 5 years until 40).
3y ago