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Efficiency is great! However, most models suggest that electricity consumption will significantly increase over the next couple of decades. Efficiency isn’t g

by rgmerk 3y ago

Efficiency is great! However, most models suggest that electricity consumption will significantly increase over the next couple of decades. Efficiency isn’t going to go close to covering the extra demand from EVs and electrifying heating.

more_corn 3y ago
The big problem is balancing generation and demand. Demand is variable and it is very hard to spin generation up and down. Gas peaked plants have been a popular way to solve it. Electric cars are actually a brilliant way of flattening out the demand curve so that utilities have to do less ramping up and down. There’s a significant amount of good they can do simply by consuming power at night.
toomuchtodo 3y ago
https://electrek.co/2023/11/20/world-may-be-on-track-for-tripling-renewables/ https://electrek.co/2023/11/20/world-may-be-on-track-for-tri...
Skinetio 3y ago
There is no 'extra demand' as electricy is energy. The overall 'energy' needed will be less because EVs do not waste 70% of energy to heat and a heat pump creates out of 1 energy unit 2-5 energy units. It is also much easier to efficiently do gas to power/oil to power in big plants and use the excess process energy for other things. Even if our whole society will consume more energy in the next x years, thanks to EVs and electrifying heating (with heatpump) this line/graph/curve will be less than if we would not have EV and e heating through heatpumps.
- ericpauley 3y ago
  GP said electricity consumption, not energy. While it's true that EVs use less energy (in a raw material/CO2 sense), they clearly use more grid-supplied electricity, and grid capacity needs to be built to meet that demand.
  - hughesjj 3y ago
    This is my prior belief as well, but devils advocate: how much electricity does the oil refinement process cost? I'd wager something like 8% or less relative to the total calorie content of said gasoline, but I have no idea
    - rgmerk 3y ago
      I haven’t bothered to dig through the details of this report, but the total energy use in petroleum refining is about 4% of US total energy consumption. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/7261027 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/7261027 Even making conservative assumptions about how much of that is electricity, net demand for electricity is going to go up. This is also what the people who model this stuff for a living are predicting - somewhere around doubling to tripling of electricity demand by 2050 IIRC.
      - mlyle 3y ago
        Very little of the energy used in petroleum refining is electricity. About half of it comes from the refinery's own byproducts; and a big remainder is from natural gas or coal used to produce heat. Indeed, I just peeked at your report and it says the same thing: "Nearly one-half the energy consumed by refineries is obtained from by-product refinery gas and coke, and about one-third is supplied by natural gas. "
  - redserk 3y ago
    If your ISO/RTO isn't coordinating activities to add power generation, you owe it to yourself to move -- and pronto. Every competent ISO/RTO in the US has already factored additional electricity growth required by EVs and other needs in their mid/long-term plans.
  - Skinetio 3y ago
    Yes and the conclusion is not that we will consume more energy, but we will need to adjust our energy lines. Its missleading how he wrote it.
dkjaudyeqooe 3y ago
> significantly increase over the next couple of decades Great, that gives us time to build out wind and solar
- p1mrx 3y ago
  And long-distance transmission, storage, nuclear, geothermal... because we still want temperate buildings and movable vehicles when the weather is uncooperative.
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    Each EV has a battery that also acts as storage, so we have something at the start already.
    - p1mrx 3y ago
      Do you really think people will voluntarily give away their miles during a shortage? Even after seeing the 2020 toilet paper scenario?
      - rgmerk 3y ago
        Not unless they're properly compensated. However, it's already possible in some jurisdictions to play in the wholesale market with a home battery, and the same should apply for V2G. If they were offering, say, $2/kwh for the electricity in my car battery, unless I needed to take a long trip immediately afterwards I'd very happily take it. Wholesale peaks can go even higher than that on occasion!
        p1mrx 3y ago
        How many vehicle owners are flexible enough to give up driving for several days, in exchange for a $120 payout? I think EVs can smooth out the daily bumps, but we need something to stabilize the grid over longer periods without burning fossil fuels. At least for the US, lots of long-distance transmission should help, because weather events generally don't affect the entire country.

by rgmerk 3y ago

more_corn 3y ago

The big problem is balancing generation and demand. Demand is variable and it is very hard to spin generation up and down. Gas peaked plants have been a popular way to solve it. Electric cars are actually a brilliant way of flattening out the demand curve so that utilities have to do less ramping up and down. There’s a significant amount of good they can do simply by consuming power at night.

toomuchtodo 3y ago

https://electrek.co/2023/11/20/world-may-be-on-track-for-tripling-renewables/ https://electrek.co/2023/11/20/world-may-be-on-track-for-tri...

Skinetio 3y ago

There is no 'extra demand' as electricy is energy. The overall 'energy' needed will be less because EVs do not waste 70% of energy to heat and a heat pump creates out of 1 energy unit 2-5 energy units. It is also much easier to efficiently do gas to power/oil to power in big plants and use the excess process energy for other things. Even if our whole society will consume more energy in the next x years, thanks to EVs and electrifying heating (with heatpump) this line/graph/curve will be less than if we would not have EV and e heating through heatpumps.

ericpauley 3y ago
GP said electricity consumption, not energy. While it's true that EVs use less energy (in a raw material/CO2 sense), they clearly use more grid-supplied electricity, and grid capacity needs to be built to meet that demand.
- hughesjj 3y ago
  This is my prior belief as well, but devils advocate: how much electricity does the oil refinement process cost? I'd wager something like 8% or less relative to the total calorie content of said gasoline, but I have no idea
  - rgmerk 3y ago
    I haven’t bothered to dig through the details of this report, but the total energy use in petroleum refining is about 4% of US total energy consumption. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/7261027 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/7261027 Even making conservative assumptions about how much of that is electricity, net demand for electricity is going to go up. This is also what the people who model this stuff for a living are predicting - somewhere around doubling to tripling of electricity demand by 2050 IIRC.
    - mlyle 3y ago
      Very little of the energy used in petroleum refining is electricity. About half of it comes from the refinery's own byproducts; and a big remainder is from natural gas or coal used to produce heat. Indeed, I just peeked at your report and it says the same thing: "Nearly one-half the energy consumed by refineries is obtained from by-product refinery gas and coke, and about one-third is supplied by natural gas. "
- redserk 3y ago
  If your ISO/RTO isn't coordinating activities to add power generation, you owe it to yourself to move -- and pronto. Every competent ISO/RTO in the US has already factored additional electricity growth required by EVs and other needs in their mid/long-term plans.
- Skinetio 3y ago
  Yes and the conclusion is not that we will consume more energy, but we will need to adjust our energy lines. Its missleading how he wrote it.

dkjaudyeqooe 3y ago

> significantly increase over the next couple of decades Great, that gives us time to build out wind and solar

p1mrx 3y ago
And long-distance transmission, storage, nuclear, geothermal... because we still want temperate buildings and movable vehicles when the weather is uncooperative.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  Each EV has a battery that also acts as storage, so we have something at the start already.
  - p1mrx 3y ago
    Do you really think people will voluntarily give away their miles during a shortage? Even after seeing the 2020 toilet paper scenario?
    - rgmerk 3y ago
      Not unless they're properly compensated. However, it's already possible in some jurisdictions to play in the wholesale market with a home battery, and the same should apply for V2G. If they were offering, say, $2/kwh for the electricity in my car battery, unless I needed to take a long trip immediately afterwards I'd very happily take it. Wholesale peaks can go even higher than that on occasion!
      - p1mrx 3y ago
        How many vehicle owners are flexible enough to give up driving for several days, in exchange for a $120 payout? I think EVs can smooth out the daily bumps, but we need something to stabilize the grid over longer periods without burning fossil fuels. At least for the US, lots of long-distance transmission should help, because weather events generally don't affect the entire country.