5 ms·

Despite all the economic dooming on social media, it actually looks like we might get a soft landing. And if so, Jerome Powell and the fed deserve a ton of pra

Despite all the economic dooming on social media, it actually looks like we might get a soft landing. And if so, Jerome Powell and the fed deserve a ton of praise.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
toomuchtodo 3y ago
Could only do it because of structural demographics (excess COVID deaths + retirements + ~3.6M Boomers retiring per year). Note shortages across various industries (teachers, bus drivers, healthcare workers, air traffic controllers, etc). New York City walked back its remote and flexible work policy due to hemorrhaging talent. The Federal government is holding onto a substantial cohort of workers because of its telework allowances (because those folks could simply retire instead). Citations: https://www.clevelandfed.org/publications/cleveland-fed-district-data-brief/2022/cfddb-20220421-demographic-trends-weak-labor-force-growth https://www.clevelandfed.org/publications/cleveland-fed-dist... https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/4405350-telework-is-actually-rescuing-the-federal-workforce-its-abolition-wont-be-pretty/ https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/4405350-telework-is-a... https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc-remote-work-eric-adams-softens-stance-on-working-from-home-for-city-employees/4106612/ https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc-remote-work-eric-a... https://www.axios.com/2023/08/27/labor-shortages-air-traffic-health-care-teachers-police https://www.axios.com/2023/08/27/labor-shortages-air-traffic... https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531829-older-workers-propping-up-us-economy https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531829-older-workers-propp... | https://archive.ph/sKeyE https://archive.ph/sKeyE https://www.marketplace.org/2022/01/24/how-much-labor-force-has-been-lost-covid-19/ https://www.marketplace.org/2022/01/24/how-much-labor-force-... https://www.axios.com/2023/05/08/us-labor-shortage-older-workers https://www.axios.com/2023/05/08/us-labor-shortage-older-wor... https://www.businessinsider.com/baby-boomer-retirement-surge-spark-forever-labor-shortage-jobs-workers-2023-5 https://www.businessinsider.com/baby-boomer-retirement-surge... https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/21/american-workers-are-demanding-almost-80000-a-year-to-take-a-new-job.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/21/american-workers-are-demandi...
- Macha 3y ago
  The second comment is deleted. Specifically, in what direction did New York roll back the policy?
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    EDIT: Citations revamped to point directly to sources instead of my previous comments containing them. https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc-remote-work-eric-adams-softens-stance-on-working-from-home-for-city-employees/4106612/ https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc-remote-work-eric-a... > Gov. Kathy Hochul said it has been a longer transition back to office work than anyone expected, as she too had predicted (if not demanded) a more robust return to work schedule. But now it sounds like she is opening up to the idea, whether she likes it or not. > "I think the mayor is simply acknowledging the reality. We have a shortage of workers especially in government," Hochul said, adding that a more robust office pattern could still arrive down the line. "I believe all this is transitional, it does not have to be the death sentence in five days a week ever again, but we are not quite there yet."
    - ethanbond 3y ago
      Just gotta give people a few more years to become more comfortable and effective at home and to be better supported by tools/infra/culture for remote work… then they’ll be ready to come back.
      - toomuchtodo 3y ago
        1.8M people over the age of 55 die every year in the US, half of which are in the labor force. Progress is inevitable as these workers age out, and younger workers take their place.
    - htek 3y ago
      Why do people need to return to the office? I have Teams, Zoom, email, Slack, and a cellphone. I also don't have an hour commute each way. I've gotten more done "at work" at home than I ever did in the office. Meetings are now as long as they need to be, not the full 1-2 hours scheduled whether we need it or not. While the opportunities for chit-chat and out-of-band conversations are not as spontaneous, using all the tools we have for communications can be just as impactful for one's mental health.
m_a_g 3y ago
This might prevent a recession, but it will continue to fuel inflation.
- thinkingtoilet 3y ago
  I know nothing about this stuff. Aren't they combating inflation with higher interest rates? Is it out of their control?
  - redsoundbanner 3y ago
    It's 100% out of their control.
  - dragontamer 3y ago
    When you consider the politics of the doomers, its far worse than that. The economic-doomers want the Fed to lower rates to "save jobs". Because lower-rates tends to lower unemployment. The Fed is ignoring them and keeping rates high, because the economic-doomers are wrong. ------------ So economic doomers complain about inflation (which the Fed is trying to fix with high rates), but also want to pretend that unemployment is secretly 10x worse than it really is for some reason.
    - jfengel 3y ago
      The Fed is talking about lowering rates, because everybody is thirsty for the punch bowl. They want to be responsible, but it's sooo tempting. Personally I believe they kept rates far too low for far too long last time, deceived by the way the free money inflated assets rather than consumer prices, and that's a big part of what caused the recent inflation spike.
    - orwin 3y ago
      High rates favor labor money, low rates favor capital money. Low rates also improve job creation, so sometimes labor is divided.
    - gustavus 3y ago
cuckatoo 3y ago
[dead]
alephnerd 3y ago
The economic doomerism is basically chattering class bullshit White collar jobs like tech have been negatively impacted, but most other industries have seen significant wage gains [0] All this "woe is I" layoff bullshit when millions of non-Techies might have been left on the streets when Covid hit, while we were happily working remotely and purchasing stocks or property. [0] - https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker
- itsoktocry 3y ago
  >The economic doomerism is basically chattering class bullshit I'm skeptical that you go from the lowest rates in history, over the longest period in history, to the fastest hikes in history...without some serious economic repercussions. >significant wage gains. Consumed by inflation, for the most part (but at least we kept pace). The average person isn't wealthier.
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    Average Wages have been growing faster than inflation. [0] You don't feel it in SF/NYC/Boston/Seattle but that's also due to industry skew, and you absolutely feel the economic change in cities like ATL, Phoenix, Columbus, etc In the tier 1 cities I mentioned, wages are growing much slower than the cost of living, but that isn't true for the rest of the country anymore. [0] - https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-i...
    - CapitalTntcls 3y ago
      Last years inflation was 10% in my country. I only got 3% raise because having higher raise would "increase inflation". I'm still able to afford my lifestyle but I don't have the same from 4 years ago.
      - alephnerd 3y ago
        > Last years inflation was 10% in my country This is a conversation about America, not your country.
sudisjensobshs 3y ago
The fed was created to prevent the boom bust cycles we’ve seen for the past 100 years. I don’t think “making it hurt less” when your entire purpose is to avoid the pain is praiseworthy. But who’s to say - maybe the rains do actually keep coming because we make all those sacrifices to the gods.
- HDThoreaun 3y ago
  They deserve praise because their job is incredibly difficult. Just because its what theyre supposed to do doesnt mean its easy. I give praise to my coworkers when they do a good job, and our work is way easier than the feds.
- eru 3y ago
  The creation of the Fed was a complicated process with lots of political horse trading. And until at least the 1980s the Fed did worse than the (broken!) system that they replaced. See https://www.cato.org/policy-report/november/december-2012/has-fed-been-failure https://www.cato.org/policy-report/november/december-2012/ha... about the Fed. On the positive side, Canada would have been an excellent role model to emulate, instead of coming up with the Fed system: https://www.cato.org/blog/there-was-no-place-canada https://www.cato.org/blog/there-was-no-place-canada
lamontcg 3y ago
Wall Street is going to wake up pretty soon and realize that strong economic numbers means no rate cuts. And eventually the rate cuts are going to bite into loans which are hitting their maturity dates and rolling over.
- laidoffamazon 3y ago
  OK but we had this for basically all of last year as inflation moderated and jobs kept growing until suddenly good news meant good news to the market. $SPX is at an all time high right now at $494. That's insane. I bought in at ~$360 in 2022.
  - lamontcg 3y ago
    Good, but now you should probably be considering when to exit that trade and book your profits.
    - eru 3y ago
      Why? Don't try to time the market, especially if you are a passive index investor. (If you do believe in active investing, why are you investing in the S&P500?) Just buy when you have money, and liquidate your investment when you need money.

Despite all the economic dooming on social media, it actually looks like we might get a soft landing. And if so, Jerome Powell and the fed deserve a ton of praise.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

toomuchtodo 3y ago

Could only do it because of structural demographics (excess COVID deaths + retirements + ~3.6M Boomers retiring per year). Note shortages across various industries (teachers, bus drivers, healthcare workers, air traffic controllers, etc). New York City walked back its remote and flexible work policy due to hemorrhaging talent. The Federal government is holding onto a substantial cohort of workers because of its telework allowances (because those folks could simply retire instead). Citations: https://www.clevelandfed.org/publications/cleveland-fed-district-data-brief/2022/cfddb-20220421-demographic-trends-weak-labor-force-growth https://www.clevelandfed.org/publications/cleveland-fed-dist... https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/4405350-telework-is-actually-rescuing-the-federal-workforce-its-abolition-wont-be-pretty/ https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/4405350-telework-is-a... https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc-remote-work-eric-adams-softens-stance-on-working-from-home-for-city-employees/4106612/ https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc-remote-work-eric-a... https://www.axios.com/2023/08/27/labor-shortages-air-traffic-health-care-teachers-police https://www.axios.com/2023/08/27/labor-shortages-air-traffic... https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531829-older-workers-propping-up-us-economy https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531829-older-workers-propp... | https://archive.ph/sKeyE https://archive.ph/sKeyE https://www.marketplace.org/2022/01/24/how-much-labor-force-has-been-lost-covid-19/ https://www.marketplace.org/2022/01/24/how-much-labor-force-... https://www.axios.com/2023/05/08/us-labor-shortage-older-workers https://www.axios.com/2023/05/08/us-labor-shortage-older-wor... https://www.businessinsider.com/baby-boomer-retirement-surge-spark-forever-labor-shortage-jobs-workers-2023-5 https://www.businessinsider.com/baby-boomer-retirement-surge... https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/21/american-workers-are-demanding-almost-80000-a-year-to-take-a-new-job.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/21/american-workers-are-demandi...

Macha 3y ago
The second comment is deleted. Specifically, in what direction did New York roll back the policy?
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  EDIT: Citations revamped to point directly to sources instead of my previous comments containing them. https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc-remote-work-eric-adams-softens-stance-on-working-from-home-for-city-employees/4106612/ https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc-remote-work-eric-a... > Gov. Kathy Hochul said it has been a longer transition back to office work than anyone expected, as she too had predicted (if not demanded) a more robust return to work schedule. But now it sounds like she is opening up to the idea, whether she likes it or not. > "I think the mayor is simply acknowledging the reality. We have a shortage of workers especially in government," Hochul said, adding that a more robust office pattern could still arrive down the line. "I believe all this is transitional, it does not have to be the death sentence in five days a week ever again, but we are not quite there yet."
  - ethanbond 3y ago
    Just gotta give people a few more years to become more comfortable and effective at home and to be better supported by tools/infra/culture for remote work… then they’ll be ready to come back.
    - toomuchtodo 3y ago
      1.8M people over the age of 55 die every year in the US, half of which are in the labor force. Progress is inevitable as these workers age out, and younger workers take their place.
  - htek 3y ago
    Why do people need to return to the office? I have Teams, Zoom, email, Slack, and a cellphone. I also don't have an hour commute each way. I've gotten more done "at work" at home than I ever did in the office. Meetings are now as long as they need to be, not the full 1-2 hours scheduled whether we need it or not. While the opportunities for chit-chat and out-of-band conversations are not as spontaneous, using all the tools we have for communications can be just as impactful for one's mental health.

m_a_g 3y ago

This might prevent a recession, but it will continue to fuel inflation.

thinkingtoilet 3y ago
I know nothing about this stuff. Aren't they combating inflation with higher interest rates? Is it out of their control?
- redsoundbanner 3y ago
  It's 100% out of their control.
- dragontamer 3y ago
  When you consider the politics of the doomers, its far worse than that. The economic-doomers want the Fed to lower rates to "save jobs". Because lower-rates tends to lower unemployment. The Fed is ignoring them and keeping rates high, because the economic-doomers are wrong. ------------ So economic doomers complain about inflation (which the Fed is trying to fix with high rates), but also want to pretend that unemployment is secretly 10x worse than it really is for some reason.
  - jfengel 3y ago
    The Fed is talking about lowering rates, because everybody is thirsty for the punch bowl. They want to be responsible, but it's sooo tempting. Personally I believe they kept rates far too low for far too long last time, deceived by the way the free money inflated assets rather than consumer prices, and that's a big part of what caused the recent inflation spike.
  - orwin 3y ago
    High rates favor labor money, low rates favor capital money. Low rates also improve job creation, so sometimes labor is divided.
  - gustavus 3y ago

cuckatoo 3y ago

[dead]

alephnerd 3y ago

The economic doomerism is basically chattering class bullshit White collar jobs like tech have been negatively impacted, but most other industries have seen significant wage gains [0] All this "woe is I" layoff bullshit when millions of non-Techies might have been left on the streets when Covid hit, while we were happily working remotely and purchasing stocks or property. [0] - https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker

itsoktocry 3y ago
>The economic doomerism is basically chattering class bullshit I'm skeptical that you go from the lowest rates in history, over the longest period in history, to the fastest hikes in history...without some serious economic repercussions. >significant wage gains. Consumed by inflation, for the most part (but at least we kept pace). The average person isn't wealthier.
- alephnerd 3y ago
  Average Wages have been growing faster than inflation. [0] You don't feel it in SF/NYC/Boston/Seattle but that's also due to industry skew, and you absolutely feel the economic change in cities like ATL, Phoenix, Columbus, etc In the tier 1 cities I mentioned, wages are growing much slower than the cost of living, but that isn't true for the rest of the country anymore. [0] - https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-i...
  - CapitalTntcls 3y ago
    Last years inflation was 10% in my country. I only got 3% raise because having higher raise would "increase inflation". I'm still able to afford my lifestyle but I don't have the same from 4 years ago.
    - alephnerd 3y ago
      > Last years inflation was 10% in my country This is a conversation about America, not your country.

sudisjensobshs 3y ago

The fed was created to prevent the boom bust cycles we’ve seen for the past 100 years. I don’t think “making it hurt less” when your entire purpose is to avoid the pain is praiseworthy. But who’s to say - maybe the rains do actually keep coming because we make all those sacrifices to the gods.

HDThoreaun 3y ago
They deserve praise because their job is incredibly difficult. Just because its what theyre supposed to do doesnt mean its easy. I give praise to my coworkers when they do a good job, and our work is way easier than the feds.
eru 3y ago
The creation of the Fed was a complicated process with lots of political horse trading. And until at least the 1980s the Fed did worse than the (broken!) system that they replaced. See https://www.cato.org/policy-report/november/december-2012/has-fed-been-failure https://www.cato.org/policy-report/november/december-2012/ha... about the Fed. On the positive side, Canada would have been an excellent role model to emulate, instead of coming up with the Fed system: https://www.cato.org/blog/there-was-no-place-canada https://www.cato.org/blog/there-was-no-place-canada

lamontcg 3y ago

Wall Street is going to wake up pretty soon and realize that strong economic numbers means no rate cuts. And eventually the rate cuts are going to bite into loans which are hitting their maturity dates and rolling over.

laidoffamazon 3y ago
OK but we had this for basically all of last year as inflation moderated and jobs kept growing until suddenly good news meant good news to the market. $SPX is at an all time high right now at $494. That's insane. I bought in at ~$360 in 2022.
- lamontcg 3y ago
  Good, but now you should probably be considering when to exit that trade and book your profits.
  - eru 3y ago
    Why? Don't try to time the market, especially if you are a passive index investor. (If you do believe in active investing, why are you investing in the S&P500?) Just buy when you have money, and liquidate your investment when you need money.