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Google missing on ad revenue is like Apple missing on iPhone revenue. It's even worse for Google because it's a larger part of their business. Is the miss a bli

Google missing on ad revenue is like Apple missing on iPhone revenue. It's even worse for Google because it's a larger part of their business. Is the miss a blip or a signal of a slowing ad market or are LLMs eating into their business? Hard to know, but that's the concern.

Grazester 3y ago
LLM is not doing anything given that Bing's growth since adding chat-gpt has been negligible.
- epolanski 3y ago
  You have solid numbers behind your claim? By the way people are asking chatgpt or copilot what they used to Google. Not everything but a lot. I most certainly do and I think I'm not alone.
  - Grazester 3y ago
    Isn't Bing Google biggest search competition? Is the general public using chat as a general search engine to replace the more traditional search engine or is it just us tech people. I can tell you I know of no one doing this outside of tech coworkers and even then just use it for programming related tasks to a very limited way. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-18/microsoft-s-bing-market-share-barely-budged-after-adding-chatgpt?embedded-checkout=true https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-18/microsoft...
    - epolanski 3y ago
      Google's biggest competition is whatever makes people use their search less. I know for sure some people who use chatgpt in place of Google search like students or people needing translations.
VikingCoder 3y ago
Ad revenue: $65.5 billion vs. $65.8 billion expected ($59.04 billion in Q4 2022) Right, they got $300 million less than expected. Which means they only got 99.544072948% of what the analysts expected. That means they missed analyst expectations by 0.455927052%. Not for total Revenue. Not for EPS. Not for net income. Not for diluted EPS. For the one category, Ad Revenue. Resulting in a 6% after-market drop. 0.455927052% miss. 6% drop. I think it's entirely possible that people focus too much on short term metrics and not enough on long-term growth.
- epolanski 3y ago
  Missing 0.5% of your core business revenue is a bad sign for long term.
  - resolutebat 3y ago
    Core business revenue went strongly up, it just went up slightly less than analysts hoped.
- matwood 3y ago
  Google revenues come from ~90% ads. It's an ad company. The company gives guidance, so the estimates are not pulled out of thin air. Google should know their ad business very well at this point. People selling after an ad miss is medium/long term thinking. They could be wrong, but was the miss caused by a wider economic slowdown (see UPS earnings) or was it Google specific? Either way, it could be sign of Google slowing down or the economy as whole.
  - jsnell 3y ago
    > Google revenues come from ~90% ads. That's not true, and hasn't been for a decade. For this earnings release, the proportion of revenue from ads was 76%. > The company gives guidance No, they don't. As far as I know they've literally never given guidance.
    - matwood 3y ago
cityguy33 3y ago
We beat expectations across the board a couple quarters ago except in cloud. Stock dipped the next day. I’m unconvinced this dip is a meaningful signal into the trajectory of Google or is based on any reasonable concern.

Grazester 3y ago

LLM is not doing anything given that Bing's growth since adding chat-gpt has been negligible.

epolanski 3y ago
You have solid numbers behind your claim? By the way people are asking chatgpt or copilot what they used to Google. Not everything but a lot. I most certainly do and I think I'm not alone.
- Grazester 3y ago
  Isn't Bing Google biggest search competition? Is the general public using chat as a general search engine to replace the more traditional search engine or is it just us tech people. I can tell you I know of no one doing this outside of tech coworkers and even then just use it for programming related tasks to a very limited way. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-18/microsoft-s-bing-market-share-barely-budged-after-adding-chatgpt?embedded-checkout=true https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-18/microsoft...
  - epolanski 3y ago
    Google's biggest competition is whatever makes people use their search less. I know for sure some people who use chatgpt in place of Google search like students or people needing translations.

VikingCoder 3y ago

Ad revenue: $65.5 billion vs. $65.8 billion expected ($59.04 billion in Q4 2022) Right, they got $300 million less than expected. Which means they only got 99.544072948% of what the analysts expected. That means they missed analyst expectations by 0.455927052%. Not for total Revenue. Not for EPS. Not for net income. Not for diluted EPS. For the one category, Ad Revenue. Resulting in a 6% after-market drop. 0.455927052% miss. 6% drop. I think it's entirely possible that people focus too much on short term metrics and not enough on long-term growth.

epolanski 3y ago
Missing 0.5% of your core business revenue is a bad sign for long term.
- resolutebat 3y ago
  Core business revenue went strongly up, it just went up slightly less than analysts hoped.
matwood 3y ago
Google revenues come from ~90% ads. It's an ad company. The company gives guidance, so the estimates are not pulled out of thin air. Google should know their ad business very well at this point. People selling after an ad miss is medium/long term thinking. They could be wrong, but was the miss caused by a wider economic slowdown (see UPS earnings) or was it Google specific? Either way, it could be sign of Google slowing down or the economy as whole.
- jsnell 3y ago
  > Google revenues come from ~90% ads. That's not true, and hasn't been for a decade. For this earnings release, the proportion of revenue from ads was 76%. > The company gives guidance No, they don't. As far as I know they've literally never given guidance.
  - matwood 3y ago

cityguy33 3y ago

We beat expectations across the board a couple quarters ago except in cloud. Stock dipped the next day. I’m unconvinced this dip is a meaningful signal into the trajectory of Google or is based on any reasonable concern.