5 ms·

Okay so why is GOOG -4% in after hours this time? :)

sillysaurusx 3y ago
The market can remain irrational something something. Besides, it’s a good opportunity. If it’s down, the stocks are on sale. I still regret not buying Meta when the markets were crashing last time.
mydogcanpurr 3y ago
I don’t know if it’s the actual reason, but they missed ad revenue expectations according to Yahoo. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-today-nasdaq-falls-ahead-of-big-tech-earnings-210135193.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-today-nasdaq-fal...
- atorodius 3y ago
  Hm there it says Revenue, excluding traffic acquisition costs: $72.32 billion vs. $70.97 billion expected ($63.12 billion in Q4 2022) Adjusted earnings per share: $1.64 vs. $1.59 expected ($1.05 in Q4 2022) Cloud revenue: $9.19 billion vs. $8.95 billion expected ($7.32 billion in Q4 2022) Ad revenue: $65.5 billion vs. $65.8 billion expected ($59.04 billion in Q4 2022) I hope that 0.3 is not the reason for that slip haha
  - boomfunky 3y ago
    There could be other factors in play like the recent volatility in Netflix within the same sector, as well as the upcoming FOMC meeting tomorrow causing increased fear. Markets aren't always as accurate and efficient as some believe, and stock prices always become more volatile around earnings.
    - jsnell 3y ago
      All those other factors would have been priced in at the end of the day. The only new information since then would have been the earnings release. If the absolute numbers are better than expected, then maybe it's the relative numbers (as compared to Microsoft who also released earnings) that are worse than expected?
      - pie420 3y ago
        Also keep in mind that the "expected" are not the actual expected, but rather "publicly expected numbers that are freely given out and therefore useless". Investment firms have private expected numbers that are far more accurate, the publicly given out ones are designed to manipulate retail investors.
      - boomfunky 3y ago
        Completely true, it would be a combination of both. Clearly it didn't meet a lot of expectations indicated by the selloff, but selling could also be aggravated by a sell day in the Nasdaq/XLC and high impact economic events on the horizon. This is all conjecture from me, I am by no means a market expert, just offering a way to rationalize the above comment on how a good/"not that bad" earnings report can still result in a stock having a large selloff.
  - matwood 3y ago
    Google missing on ad revenue is like Apple missing on iPhone revenue. It's even worse for Google because it's a larger part of their business. Is the miss a blip or a signal of a slowing ad market or are LLMs eating into their business? Hard to know, but that's the concern.
    - Grazester 3y ago
      LLM is not doing anything given that Bing's growth since adding chat-gpt has been negligible.
      - epolanski 3y ago
        You have solid numbers behind your claim? By the way people are asking chatgpt or copilot what they used to Google. Not everything but a lot. I most certainly do and I think I'm not alone.
        Grazester 3y ago
        Isn't Bing Google biggest search competition? Is the general public using chat as a general search engine to replace the more traditional search engine or is it just us tech people. I can tell you I know of no one doing this outside of tech coworkers and even then just use it for programming related tasks to a very limited way. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-18/microsoft-s-bing-market-share-barely-budged-after-adding-chatgpt?embedded-checkout=true https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-18/microsoft...
        epolanski 3y ago
        Google's biggest competition is whatever makes people use their search less. I know for sure some people who use chatgpt in place of Google search like students or people needing translations.
    - VikingCoder 3y ago
      Ad revenue: $65.5 billion vs. $65.8 billion expected ($59.04 billion in Q4 2022) Right, they got $300 million less than expected. Which means they only got 99.544072948% of what the analysts expected. That means they missed analyst expectations by 0.455927052%. Not for total Revenue. Not for EPS. Not for net income. Not for diluted EPS. For the one category, Ad Revenue. Resulting in a 6% after-market drop. 0.455927052% miss. 6% drop. I think it's entirely possible that people focus too much on short term metrics and not enough on long-term growth.
  - crowcroft 3y ago
    Almost definitely the case that people are disappointed in the ad revenue. GCP is growing to be a meaningful part of Google's revenue, but the actual profit at Google is almost entirely ad revenue. If that is a miss, and on the horizon we see AI disrupting search and increased competition in digital video advertising then what does that mean for the future of Google? I think that's probably being a bit pessimistic, but that's probably the argument.
  - christkv 3y ago
    Considering the massive amount of ads on YouTube now there seems to be something amiss. Are the ad rates going down?
methodical 3y ago
Without being an expert in these matters it could be that while the earnings were good they may have already been "priced in"[0], so if the earnings weren't quite as high as expected or particular areas of revenue have contracted unexpectedly[1] then it could cause the price to move downwards. It could also be a result of larger market fluctuations, as a lot of larger F100 companies have also gone down by a similar amount today[2]. Any one of these factors or a combination of them together is likely the cause of the stock price movement seen today. [0] https://www.kotaksecurities.com/articles/it-is-priced-in-what-does-that-mean/ https://www.kotaksecurities.com/articles/it-is-priced-in-wha... [1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alphabet-misses-expectations-on-ad-revenue-sending-stock-lower-211113425.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alphabet-misses-expectations-... [2] https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-key-economic-data-alphabet-amd-microsoft-to-report-earnings/ https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/do...
VirusNewbie 3y ago
I think this happens every quarter.
BillSaysThis 3y ago
After hours trading is also usually more volatile than regular hours, check in the morning and see where $GOOG actually opens.
DannyBee 3y ago
In the 18 years i've been at GOOG, what direction the stock moves post-earnings is always random, and then talking heads try to post-facto rationalize it. I've seen Google blow away earnings and all expectations and be down 10%, and completely miss expectations and pop up 5%.
- renewiltord 3y ago
  Everyone has an explanation for this but a while ago there was this online game someone made which would give you some metric about some public stock and then you had to guess to buy / sell. It's not that straightforward. Here, GOOG was $144.99 on Jan 18 and $144.50 on Jan 30 and this is supposed to be some dramatic shift in things? Bullshit.
asdajksah2123 3y ago
Because expectations were higher?
wtf_is_up 3y ago
Typically, that happens when forward guidance given on the call does not meet expected forward guidance.
FredPret 3y ago
For a distributed decision-making method like the market, there is no single reason. Every buyer and seller has their own price and own reason for it.
ardel95 3y ago
The absolute performance isn't very important for the stock price. What matters way more is the performance vis-a-vis market expectations. So in this case, the market was expecting something better (or there was some other guidance in the report that spooked investors).
dboreham 3y ago
Two things: 1. "sell on the news" 2. results vs "expectations"[1] "expectations" is a weird Wall St concept where some small number of people who don't necessarily know much get to invent a set of numbers for the company results in the future. Then a bunch of other people who know even less believe/pretend that those expectations mean something, and will buy/sell the stock accordingly when the actual results are revealed. Yes Kabuki Theater. Actually it's about as bogus as software project planning/management, so perhaps all fields have similar made up nonsense. Hopefully not the people designing bridges. Or airplanes. Oh wait...
impulser_ 3y ago
Stock prices are always pricing in the future, not the current.
lamontcg 3y ago
"buy the rumors, sell the news" combined with "priced for perfection"

The market can remain irrational something something. Besides, it’s a good opportunity. If it’s down, the stocks are on sale. I still regret not buying Meta when the markets were crashing last time.

mydogcanpurr 3y ago

I don’t know if it’s the actual reason, but they missed ad revenue expectations according to Yahoo. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-today-nasdaq-falls-ahead-of-big-tech-earnings-210135193.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-today-nasdaq-fal...

atorodius 3y ago
Hm there it says Revenue, excluding traffic acquisition costs: $72.32 billion vs. $70.97 billion expected ($63.12 billion in Q4 2022) Adjusted earnings per share: $1.64 vs. $1.59 expected ($1.05 in Q4 2022) Cloud revenue: $9.19 billion vs. $8.95 billion expected ($7.32 billion in Q4 2022) Ad revenue: $65.5 billion vs. $65.8 billion expected ($59.04 billion in Q4 2022) I hope that 0.3 is not the reason for that slip haha
- boomfunky 3y ago
  There could be other factors in play like the recent volatility in Netflix within the same sector, as well as the upcoming FOMC meeting tomorrow causing increased fear. Markets aren't always as accurate and efficient as some believe, and stock prices always become more volatile around earnings.
  - jsnell 3y ago
    All those other factors would have been priced in at the end of the day. The only new information since then would have been the earnings release. If the absolute numbers are better than expected, then maybe it's the relative numbers (as compared to Microsoft who also released earnings) that are worse than expected?
    - pie420 3y ago
      Also keep in mind that the "expected" are not the actual expected, but rather "publicly expected numbers that are freely given out and therefore useless". Investment firms have private expected numbers that are far more accurate, the publicly given out ones are designed to manipulate retail investors.
    - boomfunky 3y ago
      Completely true, it would be a combination of both. Clearly it didn't meet a lot of expectations indicated by the selloff, but selling could also be aggravated by a sell day in the Nasdaq/XLC and high impact economic events on the horizon. This is all conjecture from me, I am by no means a market expert, just offering a way to rationalize the above comment on how a good/"not that bad" earnings report can still result in a stock having a large selloff.
- matwood 3y ago
  Google missing on ad revenue is like Apple missing on iPhone revenue. It's even worse for Google because it's a larger part of their business. Is the miss a blip or a signal of a slowing ad market or are LLMs eating into their business? Hard to know, but that's the concern.
  - Grazester 3y ago
    LLM is not doing anything given that Bing's growth since adding chat-gpt has been negligible.
    - epolanski 3y ago
      You have solid numbers behind your claim? By the way people are asking chatgpt or copilot what they used to Google. Not everything but a lot. I most certainly do and I think I'm not alone.
      - Grazester 3y ago
        Isn't Bing Google biggest search competition? Is the general public using chat as a general search engine to replace the more traditional search engine or is it just us tech people. I can tell you I know of no one doing this outside of tech coworkers and even then just use it for programming related tasks to a very limited way. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-18/microsoft-s-bing-market-share-barely-budged-after-adding-chatgpt?embedded-checkout=true https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-18/microsoft...
        epolanski 3y ago
        Google's biggest competition is whatever makes people use their search less. I know for sure some people who use chatgpt in place of Google search like students or people needing translations.
  - VikingCoder 3y ago
    Ad revenue: $65.5 billion vs. $65.8 billion expected ($59.04 billion in Q4 2022) Right, they got $300 million less than expected. Which means they only got 99.544072948% of what the analysts expected. That means they missed analyst expectations by 0.455927052%. Not for total Revenue. Not for EPS. Not for net income. Not for diluted EPS. For the one category, Ad Revenue. Resulting in a 6% after-market drop. 0.455927052% miss. 6% drop. I think it's entirely possible that people focus too much on short term metrics and not enough on long-term growth.
- crowcroft 3y ago
  Almost definitely the case that people are disappointed in the ad revenue. GCP is growing to be a meaningful part of Google's revenue, but the actual profit at Google is almost entirely ad revenue. If that is a miss, and on the horizon we see AI disrupting search and increased competition in digital video advertising then what does that mean for the future of Google? I think that's probably being a bit pessimistic, but that's probably the argument.
- christkv 3y ago
  Considering the massive amount of ads on YouTube now there seems to be something amiss. Are the ad rates going down?

methodical 3y ago

Without being an expert in these matters it could be that while the earnings were good they may have already been "priced in"[0], so if the earnings weren't quite as high as expected or particular areas of revenue have contracted unexpectedly[1] then it could cause the price to move downwards. It could also be a result of larger market fluctuations, as a lot of larger F100 companies have also gone down by a similar amount today[2]. Any one of these factors or a combination of them together is likely the cause of the stock price movement seen today. [0] https://www.kotaksecurities.com/articles/it-is-priced-in-what-does-that-mean/ https://www.kotaksecurities.com/articles/it-is-priced-in-wha... [1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alphabet-misses-expectations-on-ad-revenue-sending-stock-lower-211113425.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alphabet-misses-expectations-... [2] https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-key-economic-data-alphabet-amd-microsoft-to-report-earnings/ https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/do...

VirusNewbie 3y ago

I think this happens every quarter.

BillSaysThis 3y ago

After hours trading is also usually more volatile than regular hours, check in the morning and see where $GOOG actually opens.

DannyBee 3y ago

In the 18 years i've been at GOOG, what direction the stock moves post-earnings is always random, and then talking heads try to post-facto rationalize it. I've seen Google blow away earnings and all expectations and be down 10%, and completely miss expectations and pop up 5%.

renewiltord 3y ago
Everyone has an explanation for this but a while ago there was this online game someone made which would give you some metric about some public stock and then you had to guess to buy / sell. It's not that straightforward. Here, GOOG was $144.99 on Jan 18 and $144.50 on Jan 30 and this is supposed to be some dramatic shift in things? Bullshit.

asdajksah2123 3y ago

Because expectations were higher?

wtf_is_up 3y ago

Typically, that happens when forward guidance given on the call does not meet expected forward guidance.

FredPret 3y ago

For a distributed decision-making method like the market, there is no single reason. Every buyer and seller has their own price and own reason for it.

ardel95 3y ago

The absolute performance isn't very important for the stock price. What matters way more is the performance vis-a-vis market expectations. So in this case, the market was expecting something better (or there was some other guidance in the report that spooked investors).

dboreham 3y ago

Two things: 1. "sell on the news" 2. results vs "expectations"[1] "expectations" is a weird Wall St concept where some small number of people who don't necessarily know much get to invent a set of numbers for the company results in the future. Then a bunch of other people who know even less believe/pretend that those expectations mean something, and will buy/sell the stock accordingly when the actual results are revealed. Yes Kabuki Theater. Actually it's about as bogus as software project planning/management, so perhaps all fields have similar made up nonsense. Hopefully not the people designing bridges. Or airplanes. Oh wait...

impulser_ 3y ago

Stock prices are always pricing in the future, not the current.

lamontcg 3y ago

"buy the rumors, sell the news" combined with "priced for perfection"