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If education worked, we wouldn’t see stats going up contrary to the rest of the world. The problem is that enforcement has declined radically and drivers have l

by acdha 3y ago

If education worked, we wouldn’t see stats going up contrary to the rest of the world. The problem is that enforcement has declined radically and drivers have learned that there will be basically no consequences for anything short of a fatality and often even then it’ll be minimal. One of the big problems is that the early signals are ignored: the guy saying the dead pedestrian “jumped in front” of his truck now almost always has a history of things like speeding and signal tickets, parking violations, etc. but as long as that doesn’t interfere with their ability to drive, they’re just being trained not to treat it seriously. What I’d like to see is a progressive escalation of natural consequences: more than one speeding or light ticket in a year and you can’t keep your license without showing that your car has a speed/acceleration governor installed, more than a few in a year and your license is suspended for a month, etc. The focus should not be on money but reinforcing the idea that driving is dangerous and if you refuse to be safe you will lose that privilege.

giantg2 3y ago
"If education worked, we wouldn’t see stats going up contrary to the rest of the world." This isn't really true. Most other developed nations have much stricter licensing with much lower fatality rates. Yes, enforcement is definitely an issue too. Progress penalties and fines tied to income levels (or vehicle values) would be a good start.
- acdha 3y ago
  It is really true. There are various causes being debated but we’re the only rich country where the fatality rate is moving in the wrong direction: https://static01.nyt.com/images/2023/12/10/briefing/oakImage-1702214892119/oakImage-1702214892119-mobileMasterAt3x.png https://static01.nyt.com/images/2023/12/10/briefing/oakImage... The source article covers why some of the theories can’t explain the difference on their own: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/11/briefing/us-traffic-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/11/briefing/us-traffic-death...
  - giantg2 3y ago
    I can't read your pay walled article. "It is really true. There are various causes being debated but we’re the only rich country where the fatality rate is moving in the wrong direction:" I'm not sure we're on the same page with what I'm taking issue with. The requirements to get a license are a joke in the US. The other nations with lower fatalities have stricter licensing. Yes, it won't explain it on it's own, but it is highly correlated and supported by studies around stricter licensing in other nations and graduated licensing in the US. But your claim that if education worked the stats wouldn't be going up has no basis in anything you've posted. The overall licensing has not improved in the US. The jurisdictions in your chart have much stricter requirements.
    - acdha 3y ago
      The graph is not paywalled, and that’s really most of it. You can use IA for the rest: https://web.archive.org/web/20231211115919/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/11/briefing/us-traffic-deaths.html https://web.archive.org/web/20231211115919/https://www.nytim... The general point, however, is simple: neither the US nor our peer countries significantly changed licensing requirements in the last 10-20 years. We didn’t suddenly stop doing public safety campaigns, either, but the United States is the only country where the fatality rate suddenly started going back up. The licensing hypothesis could explain why our numbers are higher in absolute terms but not that stark, sudden increase in legality – even if we made the license exams much easier in the mid-2010s, that wouldn’t affect the majority of drivers who already had their licenses by then.
seanmcdirmid 3y ago
China has 10x the road traffic fatalities per capita than we do. People ask if China is safe, and...they never really look at traffic fatalities numbers which are way more significant than getting stabbed to death by some guy at a drum tower. Beijing is the only place I saw someone die before (bicycle ran a red light, taxi was speeding through the intersection at a yellow light, its weird how everything goes at slow motion at the point). I've actually had pedestrians jump in front of me before at green lights in North Seattle on Aurora, which is famous for traffic fatalities. In this case, the problem aren't bad drivers, but fentanyl. Sometimes the pedestrians really are at fault. Also, we design our streets like ass; e.g. encouraging pedestrian and car traffic at the same time along with ample pedestrian-obscuring on-street parking (you really can't have both!). In this case, yes, the cars need to do the right thing, but that's made difficult enough that tragedies occur way too often. We need to get the Dutch to teach us how its done.
- giantg2 3y ago
  Pedestrian fatalities in the US involve alcohol about 50% of the time by at least one party. 38% of pedestrians killed have BACs over .08.
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    I wonder if they have tracked fentanyl yet? It seems like the numbers would evolve just substituting one substance for another.
  - s1artibartfast 3y ago
    Similarly, 16% of pedestrian fatalities were on freeways. 59% were on non-freeway arterials, while 22% were on local streets. It seems like individual pedestrian can do quite a bit of risk mitigation by staying sober and out of traffic. These stats match my anecdotal experience where I have had numerous close calls as a driver due to pedestrians where they shouldn't be (eg people on the freeway), but no close calls while walking sober on Surface streets.

by acdha 3y ago

giantg2 3y ago

"If education worked, we wouldn’t see stats going up contrary to the rest of the world." This isn't really true. Most other developed nations have much stricter licensing with much lower fatality rates. Yes, enforcement is definitely an issue too. Progress penalties and fines tied to income levels (or vehicle values) would be a good start.

acdha 3y ago
It is really true. There are various causes being debated but we’re the only rich country where the fatality rate is moving in the wrong direction: https://static01.nyt.com/images/2023/12/10/briefing/oakImage-1702214892119/oakImage-1702214892119-mobileMasterAt3x.png https://static01.nyt.com/images/2023/12/10/briefing/oakImage... The source article covers why some of the theories can’t explain the difference on their own: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/11/briefing/us-traffic-deaths.html https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/11/briefing/us-traffic-death...
- giantg2 3y ago
  I can't read your pay walled article. "It is really true. There are various causes being debated but we’re the only rich country where the fatality rate is moving in the wrong direction:" I'm not sure we're on the same page with what I'm taking issue with. The requirements to get a license are a joke in the US. The other nations with lower fatalities have stricter licensing. Yes, it won't explain it on it's own, but it is highly correlated and supported by studies around stricter licensing in other nations and graduated licensing in the US. But your claim that if education worked the stats wouldn't be going up has no basis in anything you've posted. The overall licensing has not improved in the US. The jurisdictions in your chart have much stricter requirements.
  - acdha 3y ago
    The graph is not paywalled, and that’s really most of it. You can use IA for the rest: https://web.archive.org/web/20231211115919/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/11/briefing/us-traffic-deaths.html https://web.archive.org/web/20231211115919/https://www.nytim... The general point, however, is simple: neither the US nor our peer countries significantly changed licensing requirements in the last 10-20 years. We didn’t suddenly stop doing public safety campaigns, either, but the United States is the only country where the fatality rate suddenly started going back up. The licensing hypothesis could explain why our numbers are higher in absolute terms but not that stark, sudden increase in legality – even if we made the license exams much easier in the mid-2010s, that wouldn’t affect the majority of drivers who already had their licenses by then.

seanmcdirmid 3y ago

China has 10x the road traffic fatalities per capita than we do. People ask if China is safe, and...they never really look at traffic fatalities numbers which are way more significant than getting stabbed to death by some guy at a drum tower. Beijing is the only place I saw someone die before (bicycle ran a red light, taxi was speeding through the intersection at a yellow light, its weird how everything goes at slow motion at the point). I've actually had pedestrians jump in front of me before at green lights in North Seattle on Aurora, which is famous for traffic fatalities. In this case, the problem aren't bad drivers, but fentanyl. Sometimes the pedestrians really are at fault. Also, we design our streets like ass; e.g. encouraging pedestrian and car traffic at the same time along with ample pedestrian-obscuring on-street parking (you really can't have both!). In this case, yes, the cars need to do the right thing, but that's made difficult enough that tragedies occur way too often. We need to get the Dutch to teach us how its done.

giantg2 3y ago
Pedestrian fatalities in the US involve alcohol about 50% of the time by at least one party. 38% of pedestrians killed have BACs over .08.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  I wonder if they have tracked fentanyl yet? It seems like the numbers would evolve just substituting one substance for another.
- s1artibartfast 3y ago
  Similarly, 16% of pedestrian fatalities were on freeways. 59% were on non-freeway arterials, while 22% were on local streets. It seems like individual pedestrian can do quite a bit of risk mitigation by staying sober and out of traffic. These stats match my anecdotal experience where I have had numerous close calls as a driver due to pedestrians where they shouldn't be (eg people on the freeway), but no close calls while walking sober on Surface streets.