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That's $700m USD. It's going to be hard for people to call that a failure, but they will.

by mannyv 3y ago

goosedragons 3y ago
Revenue. They aren't free to build and it probably cost a great deal to develop. Is it a success if you sell $700m USD but are still $4 billion* in the hole? * Made up number.
- steve_adams_86 3y ago
  Apparently the margin on them is ~45%, so if they do okay I can see that hole being dug out within a few years. Others have mentioned as well that it seems like this platform might not strictly be a bet on VR. It might also be a proving ground for vision systems and realtime processing capabilities. If that's the case, the information and development advances they can make with this experience might allow them to execute on bigger plans. That could be a car for example. I'm not sure what I think of that, but I don't doubt the product may have been partially justified because it allows shared progress with bigger picture plans. That would make going in the hole okay in a sense, because you'd have to go in the hole either way. At least this way you get a bit back and prove out technologies in the wild.
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    45% before R&D costs, which have to be amortized somehow.
    - flgb 3y ago
      Somehow? Wild guess, but maybe they will be selling the product of that R&D for more than 10 days.
      - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
        I doubt it’s less than 10 days. And there are ongoing software development costs. Apple still can’t print money without lots of investment.
    - snakeyjake 3y ago
      I don't know if Apple accounts for R&D the same way other normal companies, ones that don't have $60 billion in cash on hand, do. The company I work for expects each individual R&D effort to pay off and track that effort under a myriad of overhead/IRAD/misc charge numbers. Companies like Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft just shovel money into that fire.
- sidcool 3y ago
  I think it's a game of scale. Even if they are in the hole, customer acquisition and services revenue makes it worthwhile. It's a long term game.
- mytailorisrich 3y ago
  Apple is positioned in high-end, high-margin products. I obviously don't know what their costs and financial and sales plans are wrt. the Vision Pro but I think it is fair to assume that the pricing is set for a high margin within that plan. Now, considering the high price and seemingly niche target, personally I am impressed that they already sold 200k units.
gigel82 3y ago
I called it a failure and stand by that statement. There is no killer app / feature on this product, the only thing keeping it alive is the "Apple hype". I imagine the few consumers that bought into it will soon realize its uselessness (the rest being FOMO developers porting their existing 2D apps to the platform). There will be no "Apple Vision Pro 2".
- jjtheblunt 3y ago
  Are you familiar with Davinci surgical robotics?
- lfuller 3y ago
  I remember these kinds of comments when the first iPad came out. “It’s just a big iPod Touch”.
  - dgellow 3y ago
    IMHO they were right at the time of release, it took a while to develop the OS, ecosystem, etc
  - ranger207 3y ago
    These kinds of statements are why it's going to succeed. Apple hasn't failed in the last 20 years, so that of course means this attempt won't fail either. You get enough devs hyped up because it's an infallible Apple product, they rush to build a bunch of apps for it to get their name out there, people buy it because it says Apple on it, it's claimed as the winner because it's got the most apps and has made the most money. Technical considerations are only secondary at best
    - jc_dc 3y ago
      Not sure how many devs they’ll get. Of course they’ll get some, but we refocused to invest in PWA’s because of Apple and Googles App Store behavior…we’re certainly not the only devs doing this.
  - pathartl 3y ago
aaron695 3y ago
[dead]
m463 3y ago
I just kind of wonder how the segment has been doing? meta/oculus quest, htc vive, valve index, playstation vr, ... I had the early HTC Vive, which at some point I put on a shelf and have not resurrected. It was fun and novel, but that sort of wore off.

That's $700m USD. It's going to be hard for people to call that a failure, but they will.

by mannyv 3y ago

That's $700m USD. It's going to be hard for people to call that a failure, but they will.

Revenue. They aren't free to build and it probably cost a great deal to develop. Is it a success if you sell $700m USD but are still $4 billion* in the hole? * Made up number.

steve_adams_86 3y ago
Apparently the margin on them is ~45%, so if they do okay I can see that hole being dug out within a few years. Others have mentioned as well that it seems like this platform might not strictly be a bet on VR. It might also be a proving ground for vision systems and realtime processing capabilities. If that's the case, the information and development advances they can make with this experience might allow them to execute on bigger plans. That could be a car for example. I'm not sure what I think of that, but I don't doubt the product may have been partially justified because it allows shared progress with bigger picture plans. That would make going in the hole okay in a sense, because you'd have to go in the hole either way. At least this way you get a bit back and prove out technologies in the wild.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  45% before R&D costs, which have to be amortized somehow.
  - flgb 3y ago
    Somehow? Wild guess, but maybe they will be selling the product of that R&D for more than 10 days.
    - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
      I doubt it’s less than 10 days. And there are ongoing software development costs. Apple still can’t print money without lots of investment.
  - snakeyjake 3y ago
    I don't know if Apple accounts for R&D the same way other normal companies, ones that don't have $60 billion in cash on hand, do. The company I work for expects each individual R&D effort to pay off and track that effort under a myriad of overhead/IRAD/misc charge numbers. Companies like Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft just shovel money into that fire.
sidcool 3y ago
I think it's a game of scale. Even if they are in the hole, customer acquisition and services revenue makes it worthwhile. It's a long term game.
mytailorisrich 3y ago
Apple is positioned in high-end, high-margin products. I obviously don't know what their costs and financial and sales plans are wrt. the Vision Pro but I think it is fair to assume that the pricing is set for a high margin within that plan. Now, considering the high price and seemingly niche target, personally I am impressed that they already sold 200k units.

gigel82 3y ago

I called it a failure and stand by that statement. There is no killer app / feature on this product, the only thing keeping it alive is the "Apple hype". I imagine the few consumers that bought into it will soon realize its uselessness (the rest being FOMO developers porting their existing 2D apps to the platform). There will be no "Apple Vision Pro 2".

jjtheblunt 3y ago
Are you familiar with Davinci surgical robotics?
lfuller 3y ago
I remember these kinds of comments when the first iPad came out. “It’s just a big iPod Touch”.
- dgellow 3y ago
  IMHO they were right at the time of release, it took a while to develop the OS, ecosystem, etc
- ranger207 3y ago
  These kinds of statements are why it's going to succeed. Apple hasn't failed in the last 20 years, so that of course means this attempt won't fail either. You get enough devs hyped up because it's an infallible Apple product, they rush to build a bunch of apps for it to get their name out there, people buy it because it says Apple on it, it's claimed as the winner because it's got the most apps and has made the most money. Technical considerations are only secondary at best
  - jc_dc 3y ago
    Not sure how many devs they’ll get. Of course they’ll get some, but we refocused to invest in PWA’s because of Apple and Googles App Store behavior…we’re certainly not the only devs doing this.
- pathartl 3y ago

aaron695 3y ago

[dead]

m463 3y ago

I just kind of wonder how the segment has been doing? meta/oculus quest, htc vive, valve index, playstation vr, ... I had the early HTC Vive, which at some point I put on a shelf and have not resurrected. It was fun and novel, but that sort of wore off.