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Nearly 25,000 tech workers were laid off in the first weeks of 2024.Why is that?
- atlgator 3y agoI prefer the original headline, noted in the Correction section.
- geitir 3y agoYeah definitely herd mentality and not fears of recession leading indicators
- cratermoon 3y agoWhat indicators? People have been screaming "recession" for two years now, but the economy is strong. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/01/28/global-economy-gdp-inflation/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/01/28/global-ec... Keep laying off people to pump up the stock price, and economic disaster might become a self-fulfilling prophesy.
- geitir 3y agohttps://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq#/interactive https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq#/i...
- cratermoon 3y agoYes, that's exactly the sort of prognostication that has been wrong for some time now.
- prewett 3y agoYes, sure this time it is different!
- pbhowmic 3y agoThey have been saying recession is 6 months away for two years now.
- oceanplexian 3y agoIt’s because the economy is not strong and the numbers like CPI, unemployment, and inflation have been manipulated (By manipulating the basket of goods or changing the definition of unemployment) to paint a rosy picture that doesn’t match reality.
- gruez 3y ago>changing the definition of unemployment source? There's various definitions of unemployment (U-1 through U-6), but to my knowledge they haven't changed those definitions, nor have they changed what the "headline" unemployment rate corresponds to (U-3). Finally the BLS openly publishes figures for all the different unemployment rates, so it doesn't seem like they're trying to hide anything either. [1] https://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm https://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm
- throwaway5959 3y agoDon’t bother. If Trump wins in November their opinion on the economy will turn on a dime in late Jan 2025.
- Hammershaft 3y agoSource(s)?
- darth_avocado 3y agoIt’s not herd mentality. The covid over hiring layoffs were last year. This year has been mostly related to cash flow drying up and borrowing more being very expensive. Add to it the IRS rules changes re: R&D, companies are now looking to shut down any unprofitable ventures. Profitable companies are canning all experimental projects except the AI hype train. Unprofitable companies are trying to survive by downsizing until they can borrow more money again.
- seanmcdirmid 3y agoAlso trying to free up head counted and resources for big AI bets.
- Sakos 3y agoThis makes me wonder. How much have non-US tech jobs been affected by layoffs? Is this a US phenomenon or a global one or a Western one? Off the top of my head, I'm primarily aware of Embracer Group in Europe doing layoffs, but that seems to be tied to how their deal for funding with the Saudis fell through (at least that's the common narrative).
- killingtime74 3y agoMy large co virtually only laid off in US. We have employees worldwide. US employees get paid at least 2x more than next most country and have less worker protections compared to our other countries.
- Rebelgecko 3y agoThe company where I work is laying off in the US while growing in India and Central/Eastern Europe
- jqpabc123 3y agoThe only safe job is one you create for yourself.
- gruez 3y agoThis makes no sense because even if you're self employed, you're still at the whim of macroeconomic conditions. Your customers can undergo spending cuts in the same way that companies can undergo hiring cuts.
- htrp 3y agoTheoretically you see it coming as you're day in / day out in the weeds of a business. You are also probably way less insulated from macroeconomic shocks.
- dilyevsky 3y agoYou will still have a job it just won’t pay anything
- cncovyvysi 3y agoNobody using that quote is referring to the whims of the economy, they're referring to the different risk profiles between having 100 customers and being in an employee. The idea is that being a business owner hedges your bets. Whether that shakes out is entirely dependent on how important your product or service is to your customers in a downturn. Some services are completely worthless in a downturn (recruitment services), others can be essential or even come with higher demand (marketing).
- jqpabc123 3y agoAs a tech employee, I saw thousands of people get laid off. 25 years ago, I started my own business. I haven't been laid off since --- and I haven't laid off anyone either. There have been ups and downs --- but definitely more ups. I have full control over how to address "macroeconomic conditions" and the ability to mitigate risk by diversifying beyond a single market segment. As an employee, you are at the whim and mercy of others with little or no control. There is less responsibility but way more risk and uncertainty.
- AIorNot 3y agolaid off in September- 20 years in tech and I have never seen as cold a job market as this one
- happytiger 3y agoDefinitely reflects what I’m seeing. Started in the early 90s and this is the biggest winter (starting from the biggest I’ve ever seen as a full employment spot though).
- mock-possum 3y agoYeah I don’t know what to do with it. Same story, 15 years for me, and I’ve never gone this long without a job, or had this much trouble finding a job, or received so little interest or engagement from employers. It’s bizarre.
- happytiger 3y agoInterest rates go up. Layoffs are the inevitable result. This is the standard Fed cycle, isn’t it? It’s not extraordinary. I was taught that generally the fed raises rates and markets go up, the Fed flattens and markets go up, then feds drop interest rates and markets drop and unemployment goes through the roof. Is that not we expect?
- emptysongglass 3y agoWhy does an economy need to run on boom and bust cycles that require so much manual steering and adjustment? Feels like we're always teetering on the edge. Is this the way capitalism was meant to be? Isn't there some healthier alternative? I've lived through what feels like half a dozen at this point.
- killingtime74 3y agoWell you can look at the history before central banking or even modern capitalism. It was still boom and bust. Not aware of any economies historically that were just stable for long periods of time.
- crq-yml 3y agoCapitalism needs the state to function, because the legal pooling of assets and authority that takes place within capitalism needs laws and enforcement. Someone who comes in and says they're an "owner" without that backing just gets their stuff stolen - that is how things tend to play out in cultures that don't have a strong central hierarchy. So, having the state set the rules is a way to have the hierarchy with relatively less overt violence and an emphasis on trade relations as a form of status. The violence instead gets redirected towards market competition, exploitation, legal threats, etc. From that, the rest of capitalism as a system derives from whatever rules are in play at the moment: the numbers of the financial system, acting as scorekeeping, drive speculative manias and panics, and the laws in the court are weapons to use on whoever opposes you. The system stays stable where it supports the overlapping interests of the elite - so all the formalities of government are just a continuous process of normalization; if a so-and-so wants the country to go in big in a certain direction - to train a kind of workforce or build an industry or invest in developing a technology - they can groom the political system to go their way, provided everyone else at the top agrees. A lot of things go undeveloped because "there is no money in them," and this is just a reflection of lack of political will to make that the thing that someone could have as a job. The technological competition of industrialization did a great deal to wake up the sleepy parts of the world into thinking "we need to change policies if I want to stay in power", and we definitely have more of that ahead. This is more evidenced when you visit a different country and you look around and ask "why is this part so much better and that part so much worse" and a local will tell you that the law does this and the economy does that, so you get a better thing here and a worse thing there. And that's all a bit disappointing because it means we really don't have a lot of things figured out and are just reacting like the apes we are as all these new things sweep through society, but it does mean that we could potentially do a lot better by getting the right kinds of conversations started.
- 5350-uiop-1130 3y ago> "these tech companies are almost being rewarded by Wall Street for their cost discipline" > "stock investors are appreciating it" > "All of the major tech companies conducting another wave of layoffs this year are sitting atop mountains of cash and are wildly profitable" stock goes up. shareholders happy. execs get fat bonuses. not because of interest rates, loans or over-hiring.
- ChrisArchitect 3y ago[dupe] With a url fix, more discussion here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39165486 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39165486
- countWSS 3y agoLikely "Return to Office" is actually raising fixed costs(office space,devices,maintenance, electricity,etc) to pre-Covid levels, which means it much costlier to have tons of people on premises vs remote workers(which don't require all these things) That and IRS rule changes that removed tax writeoffs for "research".