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I think the reason why it seems improbable is that we conceptualize interstellar travel with a mental model of travel and exploration based on our human history

I think the reason why it seems improbable is that we conceptualize interstellar travel with a mental model of travel and exploration based on our human history of exploration and travel on Earth. So we think-- if there were a civilization a thousand light years away of course they would come visit and study us. What if the time it takes to travel between stars is longer than most civilizations exist? What if we aren't that interesting to alien species or aren't worth the time and energy to discover? We've never sent a functioning probe to any other star and probably won't in my lifetime. And life may not be at the nearest star, it may be thousands of light years away. We may never have the resources available to do it.

ericb 3y ago
> What if the time it takes to travel between stars is longer than most civilizations exist? The probe doesn't require its parent civilization to continue existing to keep working. It self-replicates. You don't have to "pick" where self-replicating probes go. Each can self-replicate, and you can get nigh-infinite probes for "free." A von Neuman probe finds its own resources.
- georgeecollins 3y ago
  We have never built anything complicated enough to self - replicate or self -repair that could last a hundred years. We have never built a biosphere that can exist in a self contained manner for a hundred years. I am not saying we won't but you are assuming we will figure out how to makes something that will maintain its message integrity for a hundred thousand years and then we will have the energy or the ability to shrink it enough to be able to send it off to some life supporting star. We have only had complicated writing for a few thousand years. People have wondered if a technical civilization existed on earth a hundred million years ago would there be any thing around now as evidence. If it takes a million years of travel in the freezing, radioactive vacuum of space to reach another life form, you don't know that humans will be around long enough as a civilization to figure out how to actually build the thing that you are describing. I hope so, but I don't think its been proven to be possible yet.

ericb 3y ago

> What if the time it takes to travel between stars is longer than most civilizations exist? The probe doesn't require its parent civilization to continue existing to keep working. It self-replicates. You don't have to "pick" where self-replicating probes go. Each can self-replicate, and you can get nigh-infinite probes for "free." A von Neuman probe finds its own resources.

georgeecollins 3y ago
We have never built anything complicated enough to self - replicate or self -repair that could last a hundred years. We have never built a biosphere that can exist in a self contained manner for a hundred years. I am not saying we won't but you are assuming we will figure out how to makes something that will maintain its message integrity for a hundred thousand years and then we will have the energy or the ability to shrink it enough to be able to send it off to some life supporting star. We have only had complicated writing for a few thousand years. People have wondered if a technical civilization existed on earth a hundred million years ago would there be any thing around now as evidence. If it takes a million years of travel in the freezing, radioactive vacuum of space to reach another life form, you don't know that humans will be around long enough as a civilization to figure out how to actually build the thing that you are describing. I hope so, but I don't think its been proven to be possible yet.