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Why should they be here? That seems a stretch to me. We don't know the motivations by those who could send them.
by actionfromafar 3y ago
Why should they be here? That seems a stretch to me. We don't know the motivations by those who could send them.
- thriftwy 3y agoIt makes sense to send them everywhere to have a sensor network wherever you go. The only reason why they may not be out there is because of Great Filter or because we are the first ones in our vicinity (would not be strange as our Universe is fairly young).
- actionfromafar 3y agoOr they are scared of what they might find. Whenever I read "the only reason" I have doubts. How can we be so sure?
- thriftwy 3y agoI wonder what you are having in mind regarding what they can find. Can an automated probe have a mental breakdown?
- actionfromafar 3y agoI should have written "might encounter". What I'm getting at is that if someone sees your probe, you have now let on that you exist.
- ericb 3y agoWe have observed exactly one sentient species, (ours) and it is sending probes already. There are 200 sextillion stars. For the opposite position (they shouldn't be here) to make sense, there has to be either no other civilizations, or our probe-sending habits are so rare that no other civilizations do it, or we are the first. Any of those other stances seem vastly more improbable, as they assume that our sample-of-one society just happens to be ludicrously different than all others.
- actionfromafar 3y agoSince we have only a sample of one, I can never make my mind up on about what is probable or improbable. But I do believe it is technically possible in principle to construct and build von Neuman probes. Once they work inside a solar system, then work on making them withstand, say, a few million years in orbit and see if they still work, once they survive a few million years "inactive" (or constantly repairing themselves or whatever it takes), send them off to the stars. But it would take a patience and scale of industry we humans literally can only vaguely dream of.
- ericb 3y ago> withstand, say, a few million years in orbit > ...scale of industry They don't have to do that. The probe just has to make more "child probes" before it dies. You don't need a huge industry if they are self-replicating. You need only one working probe to start, the rest handles itself.
- actionfromafar 3y agoThe "only" there does a lot of work. :-) And it has to survive for millions of years until it reaches a new solar system without something to "feed" on. In many ways it seems easier to make a Neuman probe which can survive within a solar system than something which can travel to another.
- gremlinsinc 3y agoit's only 75k to our nearest neighbor, and that's with current craft speeds, there's theoretical ideas for craft that's faster using solar sails and much smaller lower mass that might do it in a century.
- Teever 3y agohttps://youtu.be/zQTfuI-9jIo?si=vYYxLP_yQfgsYEA9 https://youtu.be/zQTfuI-9jIo?si=vYYxLP_yQfgsYEA9 This is a fascinating talk that goes into the details of such an endeavor.
- Teever 3y agoWe do know the motivations to some degree because they're constrained by physical reality, evolution, and game theory. Von Nuemann probes are possible in this physical reality for a relatively cheap cost and small time frame. It makes sense to put probes that can watch for threats anywhere you think that threats can be. Species that do this have a greater chance of survival than species that don't.
- gfodor 3y agoThey should be here to ensure we don’t do anything that could hurt anyone not on Earth’s surface.