4 ms·

Regarding price, leading manufacturers are already selling at a price below what was always understood as the point where EVs win in terms of economics: https:

by Tade0 3y ago

Regarding price, leading manufacturers are already selling at a price below what was always understood as the point where EVs win in terms of economics: https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2024/01/ev-lfp-battery-price-war-w-55-in-six-months.html https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2024/01/ev-lfp-battery-price-w... The recent price war in China is a testament to that.

zardo 3y ago
> Tesla will be saving $800 in LFP battery costs within 6 months and another $800 within about 18 months. Do they have a model using LiFePOs now?
- jostmey 3y ago
  I got a model 3 RWD last quarter and it has a LFP battery. I think it's the only Tesla with LFP batteries
  - coryrc 3y ago
    Only one in the US. There's more in China IIUC.
  - pi-rat 3y ago
    Model Y RWD sold in europe is LFP
- strangemonad 3y ago
  Many of the china model 3s and Ys use prismatic cells from CATL use lifepo chemistries
  - londons_explore 3y ago
    I think the reason for the wide variety of battery tech in Tesla's model range is partly to reduce/spread costs incase one battery is found to catch fire/fail when it hits 7 years old.
- ggreer 3y ago
  Since Q2 of 2022, the majority of Teslas produced have been LFP. As of right now, the standard range and long range Model 3 and Model Y are LFP. The Model S, X, and the Performance versions of the 3/Y are NCA.
- AtlasBarfed 3y ago
  And 200 wh/kg LFP and 160 wh/kg sodium ion is coming into mass production. To the main parent, the runway for further EV drivetrain cost reductions is at least a decade more. The LFP and sodium ion production roadmaps have almost 200 wh/kg sodium ion and 230 wh/kg LFP on it, so that is reasonably a five year likelihood. 10-20 year is solid state, sulfur techs, and other chemistries poised to double or triple density of the cells. The first curve shows the really low commercial vehicle demand on batteries. This will not be the case, commercial vehicles from busses to worksite vehicles to town delivery vans are going to goddamn explode in demand, once all the business owners realize the TCO of EV drivetrains is so low. I've been pretty disappointed in electric companies, perhaps they are pricing in grid adaptation, but wind and solar should be relentlessly driving down the cost of electricity and something is up with that. The dual headed dragon of economies of scale/density in batteries combined with the price drop in electricity for wind/solar is something that ICEs simply cannot win against. Which is why I chuckle at every mainstream media article about EV sales fluctuations or anti-EV stories, or the inevitable "I can't charge because Apartment/Parking Garage/City". People, this is an economic tsunami coming, and it has already started. All those infrastructure problems will be solved. The "I rent" is the most mystifying thing, indicative of local governments not getting ahead of this. What should be cheaper to wire up, a suburban development sprawled over 10 square miles, or 100 cars in a one block radius? Governments need to be incentivizing apartment charging pronto.
Terr_ 3y ago
> the point where EVs win in terms of economics If ubiquitous and cheap charging infrastructure is not being priced in, which is still a blocker for many. For example, I cannot reasonably run lengths of 110v extension cords down the block to charge a car overnight, and acquiring my own house with a garage is dramatically more expensive than any fuel savings. :p
- stcredzero 3y ago
  I cannot reasonably run lengths of 110v extension cords down the block to charge a car overnight I used to run extension cords out of windows and across the sidewalk to charge a Fiat 500e.
  - breischl 3y ago
    Works if you live in a first-floor, street-facing unit and can reliably park in front of it. Otherwise it can be tough. It's unfortunate that EVs make the most immediate sense in high-density urban settings, but those same settings have lots of people who can't use the simple kinds of charging infrastructure (eg, Level 1/2 chargers).
    - matthewdgreen 3y ago
      Cities are going to have to invest in lamppost and curb charging. These already exist. The good news is that with a modest surcharge to the base electricity cost, they will produce a stream of revenue that can be financialized to pay for the install cost (which is basically AC wiring.) The billing needs to be standardized (this is already mostly done with NACS/CCS.) It’s low hanging fruit and will happen within the next few years.
    - vel0city 3y ago
      IMO EVs work best in medium density urban settings, where people still probably have their own garages or at least private parking spots but aren't likely to need to do 100+mi drives constantly. Truly high-density urban settings should ideally find transportation solutions without cars.
tonymet 3y ago
why aren't consumers seeing this price yet?
- cogman10 3y ago
  Demand far outstrips manufacturing capacity at the moment. For batteries not put in EVs a slightly lower price will get them installed in grid storage solutions. Consumers will be the last to see lower prices while demand outpaces supply.
  - AtlasBarfed 3y ago
    YEah it's been frustrating. Those two stroke horror shows in leafblowing/lawnmowing/etc need to be cycled out, but e-tools are still priced as luxury. I'm hoping in about 5 years, especially with sodium ion in production, that changes. The really cool thing about battery production is that it's not like an ICE engine where you have to design an ICE for this size application and an ICE for that size application: the batteries can be used in a leaf blower, a moped, a car, a truck, or a massive grid. The battery supply can be routed wherever needed. That should result in a vastly cheaper overall industry than the ICE drivetrain industry. Sure you need different electric motors, but those aren't THAT different, and the industrial world has already been building all the necessary sizes and variations for a century now.
  - bmicraft 3y ago
    I really don't get how battery manufacturers have have the better part of a decade of with batteries sold pretty much before they've been manufactured and still haven't scaled up to capture that demand
    - ceejayoz 3y ago
      They have. The very first chart in the article clearly shows that. Demand just keeps increasing, too.
- antisthenes 3y ago
  Why would they? Companies will gladly pocket the difference between what they charge the customers and their $100/KWh bulk price.
robocat 3y ago
From linked link[1]: CATL is marketing 173-Ah VDA spec (Rectangular cells: 148mm length, 26.5mm width, 91 mm height - German specification). I presume manufacturers make packs using whatever cell sizes they can source? I had thought the trend was away from cylindrical (eg 4680) and towards prismatic or pouch cells? Whatever happened to the 1 metre long BYD cell: https://pushevs.com/2020/05/26/byd-blade-prismatic-battery-cell-specs-possibilities/ https://pushevs.com/2020/05/26/byd-blade-prismatic-battery-c... [1] https://cnevpost.com/2024/01/17/battery-price-war-catl-byd-costs-down/ https://cnevpost.com/2024/01/17/battery-price-war-catl-byd-c...

by Tade0 3y ago

zardo 3y ago

> Tesla will be saving $800 in LFP battery costs within 6 months and another $800 within about 18 months. Do they have a model using LiFePOs now?

jostmey 3y ago
I got a model 3 RWD last quarter and it has a LFP battery. I think it's the only Tesla with LFP batteries
- coryrc 3y ago
  Only one in the US. There's more in China IIUC.
- pi-rat 3y ago
  Model Y RWD sold in europe is LFP
strangemonad 3y ago
Many of the china model 3s and Ys use prismatic cells from CATL use lifepo chemistries
- londons_explore 3y ago
  I think the reason for the wide variety of battery tech in Tesla's model range is partly to reduce/spread costs incase one battery is found to catch fire/fail when it hits 7 years old.
ggreer 3y ago
Since Q2 of 2022, the majority of Teslas produced have been LFP. As of right now, the standard range and long range Model 3 and Model Y are LFP. The Model S, X, and the Performance versions of the 3/Y are NCA.
AtlasBarfed 3y ago
And 200 wh/kg LFP and 160 wh/kg sodium ion is coming into mass production. To the main parent, the runway for further EV drivetrain cost reductions is at least a decade more. The LFP and sodium ion production roadmaps have almost 200 wh/kg sodium ion and 230 wh/kg LFP on it, so that is reasonably a five year likelihood. 10-20 year is solid state, sulfur techs, and other chemistries poised to double or triple density of the cells. The first curve shows the really low commercial vehicle demand on batteries. This will not be the case, commercial vehicles from busses to worksite vehicles to town delivery vans are going to goddamn explode in demand, once all the business owners realize the TCO of EV drivetrains is so low. I've been pretty disappointed in electric companies, perhaps they are pricing in grid adaptation, but wind and solar should be relentlessly driving down the cost of electricity and something is up with that. The dual headed dragon of economies of scale/density in batteries combined with the price drop in electricity for wind/solar is something that ICEs simply cannot win against. Which is why I chuckle at every mainstream media article about EV sales fluctuations or anti-EV stories, or the inevitable "I can't charge because Apartment/Parking Garage/City". People, this is an economic tsunami coming, and it has already started. All those infrastructure problems will be solved. The "I rent" is the most mystifying thing, indicative of local governments not getting ahead of this. What should be cheaper to wire up, a suburban development sprawled over 10 square miles, or 100 cars in a one block radius? Governments need to be incentivizing apartment charging pronto.

Terr_ 3y ago

> the point where EVs win in terms of economics If ubiquitous and cheap charging infrastructure is not being priced in, which is still a blocker for many. For example, I cannot reasonably run lengths of 110v extension cords down the block to charge a car overnight, and acquiring my own house with a garage is dramatically more expensive than any fuel savings. :p

stcredzero 3y ago
I cannot reasonably run lengths of 110v extension cords down the block to charge a car overnight I used to run extension cords out of windows and across the sidewalk to charge a Fiat 500e.
- breischl 3y ago
  Works if you live in a first-floor, street-facing unit and can reliably park in front of it. Otherwise it can be tough. It's unfortunate that EVs make the most immediate sense in high-density urban settings, but those same settings have lots of people who can't use the simple kinds of charging infrastructure (eg, Level 1/2 chargers).
  - matthewdgreen 3y ago
    Cities are going to have to invest in lamppost and curb charging. These already exist. The good news is that with a modest surcharge to the base electricity cost, they will produce a stream of revenue that can be financialized to pay for the install cost (which is basically AC wiring.) The billing needs to be standardized (this is already mostly done with NACS/CCS.) It’s low hanging fruit and will happen within the next few years.
  - vel0city 3y ago
    IMO EVs work best in medium density urban settings, where people still probably have their own garages or at least private parking spots but aren't likely to need to do 100+mi drives constantly. Truly high-density urban settings should ideally find transportation solutions without cars.

tonymet 3y ago

why aren't consumers seeing this price yet?

cogman10 3y ago
Demand far outstrips manufacturing capacity at the moment. For batteries not put in EVs a slightly lower price will get them installed in grid storage solutions. Consumers will be the last to see lower prices while demand outpaces supply.
- AtlasBarfed 3y ago
  YEah it's been frustrating. Those two stroke horror shows in leafblowing/lawnmowing/etc need to be cycled out, but e-tools are still priced as luxury. I'm hoping in about 5 years, especially with sodium ion in production, that changes. The really cool thing about battery production is that it's not like an ICE engine where you have to design an ICE for this size application and an ICE for that size application: the batteries can be used in a leaf blower, a moped, a car, a truck, or a massive grid. The battery supply can be routed wherever needed. That should result in a vastly cheaper overall industry than the ICE drivetrain industry. Sure you need different electric motors, but those aren't THAT different, and the industrial world has already been building all the necessary sizes and variations for a century now.
- bmicraft 3y ago
  I really don't get how battery manufacturers have have the better part of a decade of with batteries sold pretty much before they've been manufactured and still haven't scaled up to capture that demand
  - ceejayoz 3y ago
    They have. The very first chart in the article clearly shows that. Demand just keeps increasing, too.
antisthenes 3y ago
Why would they? Companies will gladly pocket the difference between what they charge the customers and their $100/KWh bulk price.

robocat 3y ago

From linked link[1]: CATL is marketing 173-Ah VDA spec (Rectangular cells: 148mm length, 26.5mm width, 91 mm height - German specification). I presume manufacturers make packs using whatever cell sizes they can source? I had thought the trend was away from cylindrical (eg 4680) and towards prismatic or pouch cells? Whatever happened to the 1 metre long BYD cell: https://pushevs.com/2020/05/26/byd-blade-prismatic-battery-cell-specs-possibilities/ https://pushevs.com/2020/05/26/byd-blade-prismatic-battery-c... [1] https://cnevpost.com/2024/01/17/battery-price-war-catl-byd-costs-down/ https://cnevpost.com/2024/01/17/battery-price-war-catl-byd-c...