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This is all very encouraging and in particular batteries role in solar Two interesting data points to that end 1) The "duck curve" for CA is almost neutral -

This is all very encouraging and in particular batteries role in solar Two interesting data points to that end 1) The "duck curve" for CA is almost neutral - eg the timing imbalance between peak demand and solar power generation - battery utilization is the most straightforward solution here - https://twitter.com/baker_edmund/status/1750644294673748366 https://twitter.com/baker_edmund/status/1750644294673748366 2) There has been a massive decline in rooftop solar applications in CA since solar energy reimbursements dropped - https://twitter.com/thomasopeters/status/1750920941868347539 https://twitter.com/thomasopeters/status/1750920941868347539 - some of that is potentially pent up demand, but I think illustrates the role state policy has to play in moving towards "renewables"

0xbadcafebee 3y ago
State policy is fundamental to the entire green revolution. None of it would have been possible without nations incentivizing it. Eventually once the entire energy generation/consumption cycle is entrenched and we are all dependent on it, they can safely take away the incentives. It's a bit like changing the tires on a moving bus. Somebody had to pay for the new tires and wheels, and the support truck to run along side the bus, and the extra fuel, and a discount for the new tires, etc. Once the new tires are on the bus can keep driving without support.
LUmBULtERA 3y ago
Given the dramatically lower costs of utility-scale solar vs. residential rooftop solar, is it not better at a society level for state policy to incentivize utility over residential solar? Utility-scale battery installations likewise should be much cheaper.
- ghaff 3y ago
  Residential solar may still make sense for new construction (maybe?) in the right areas. But there was a lot of scammy behavior around home solar installation at one point. Given that home solar does not effectively give you a backup generator for free (barring a lot of batteries and specific electrical hookups as I recall), it's not clear it's a big win in general. A lot of utility things aren't ideal at the individual house level if there's an option.
  - mbgerring 3y ago
    A lot of home solar installers now include grid tied batteries as part of a standard installation, which is what NEM 3 was intended to do (secondarily, after its primary goal of giving CA IOUs a massive free lunch).
- epistasis 3y ago
  This argument ignores the cost of transmission and distribution, which are higher costs than the generation itself. And as electricity prices are driven down even further, T&D will come to dominate over energy generation costs. Few models account for this, but Christopher Clack made one, and the lowest cost energy path was a small amount of investment in distribution now, paired with massive deployment of solar on homes and industrial/commercial. This won't happen unless utilities are forced into it or their allowed profit model is changed to deliver ratepayers the lowest cost energy, however.
  - LUmBULtERA 3y ago
    Unless every home is completely off the grid, you’re going to need to pay for most or the majority of that transmission and distribution anyway. Peak winter and summer I also would imagine many or most residential deployments aren’t going to cover their own need, unless they’re incredibly over built with massive batteries. In any case, I should check out your Christopher Clack reference.
    - nerdbert 3y ago
      You don't need as much grid capacity if houses have their own generation and storage.
      - kalleboo 3y ago
        The grid still needs to be built for the worst case - houses aren't going to have days of storage for a week of cold weather with dark clouds
        fragmede 3y ago
        Worst case is months. In the depths of winter you need energy captured from the sun during summer. That's a drastic rethinking of the scale of storage.
        3y ago
- conradev 3y ago
  Generally, yes, but a few items: - Distribution systems today can only handle some percentage of EV penetration in a given area, not 100%. Charging an EV from the roof skips the grid entirely - The bulk of the cost is labor and permitting, not the modules themselves. Given that, California requires solar on newly constructed homes - California updated their net metering program so that ratepayers aren’t subsidizing rooftop solar anymore (in NEM 3.0, homeowners get paid wholesale rates)
  - inglor_cz 3y ago
    "Charging an EV from the roof skips the grid entirely" As long as you have enough sunshine hours in your region. Southern Spain is fine year-round, but you won't get any meaningful output out of a solar panel in Finnish winter. The rest of Europe lies between those two extremes. Northern winter will be made more challenging by addition of EVs to the grid, because a lot of electricity is being used for heating as well.
- photochemsyn 3y ago
  As far as rooftop solar, it makes a big difference if solar PV is built into the design process at the beginning, rather than tacked on as an afterthought. Similarly, a household battery might be as common in the future as a household hot water heater (with a similar footprint, size-wise). There's also regional variability - cities absolutely require utility-scale solar, just as they require dedicated agricultural land to feed the population, because there's not enough surface area in a city. Rural/suburban areas on the other hand are ideal for integrated rooftop solar.
- rstuart4133 3y ago
  > Given the dramatically lower costs of utility-scale solar vs. residential rooftop solar According to Wikipedia the LCOE on small roof top solar is about twice that of utility solar. [0] So yes, it's dramatically better. But typically the price difference between what the utility is paid and what the customer is charged is 3 times, so your average household is better off installing solar despite generating it at twice the cost of a utility. The price difference isn't just transmission costs. It's also retail markup, regulatory charges and metering and billing. [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_sourc... - there are a lot of tables in that page. Twice looks to be generous to the utilities.
bsder 3y ago
> There has been a massive decline in rooftop solar applications in CA since solar energy reimbursements dropped People also learned that the cheap Chinese solar cells die in 5-10 years and aren't worth installing unless your electricity costs are really high.
- jbm 3y ago
  Is this something documented? I haven't heard of this and I've been following the space for a while.
  - bsder 3y ago
    Mostly installers--probably about 7-10 years ago back when the American manufacturers got pushed out of the market by the Chinese ones. A lot of the installers got out of the business knowing they were on the hook when the warrantees came calling. Although, American manufacturers have been restarting since Biden adjusted some of the tariffs in 2023. We'll see if they go back to producing a decent product or if they just try to shovel garbage like China.
radium3d 3y ago
It's super cool you can watch California's grid level batteries "breathe" every day here, https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html#section-batteries-trend https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html#sectio... Yesterday we peaked out at 3GW discharging rate, and 4GW charging rate. We are plowing ahead in the transition to utilizing all of our excess solar! We peak at 25GW expected today, so we have a little ways to go but it's incredible how far and how fast they're replacing everything. Clean air FTW! Thanks sun!
- ketzo 3y ago
  the CAISO website is super rad in general -- so many real-time charts!! demand trend is really cool to watch during heat waves; things get spiky on both the demand side (for obvious reason) and the supply side (peaker plants & "virtual" power plants coming online)
- usefulcat 3y ago
  Kind of unrelated, but I'm wondering why TX uses so much more electricity than CA. Right now (afternoon of 1/26) happens to be a good time to compare: -- Temperatures are mild throughout most of TX (50s and 60s F); temps in CA are similar, perhaps a bit warmer; -- It's roughly mid-day in both places (3PM TX, 1PM CA); -- TX has a population of ~30M, CA has ~39M ..yet somehow right now TX is consuming ~47GW (per ercot) while CA is only consuming ~23.5GW (per caiso). What gives? ERCOT: https://www.ercot.com/gridmktinfo/dashboards https://www.ercot.com/gridmktinfo/dashboards
  - MichaelNolan 3y ago
    There are a few reasons. 1. TX has more heavy industry than CA. 2. CA has spent decades and billions on energy efficiency improvements. 3. CA prices are higher, which encourages lower demand, and encourages investments in efficiency. TX has lower prices which encourages more demand.
  - ZeroGravitas 3y ago
    California takes a much more european approach to energy efficiency.
meandthewallaby 3y ago
That duck curve tweet is disingenuous. That curve in the tweet is for the lowest net load day (net load is actual load or usage minus generation from renewables). In 2023, if you took the day that had the least amount of net load, yes, it was almost entirely covered by solar power. That does _not_ mean the claim made in the tweet that California is run totally by solar power from 10am-4pm every day (today at 11:56 AM PST, it's about 51% run by solar power). California's grid has enough good things going for it that we don't need to lie about it. You can look this up for yourself: https://www.gridstatus.io/live/caiso https://www.gridstatus.io/live/caiso

0xbadcafebee 3y ago

State policy is fundamental to the entire green revolution. None of it would have been possible without nations incentivizing it. Eventually once the entire energy generation/consumption cycle is entrenched and we are all dependent on it, they can safely take away the incentives. It's a bit like changing the tires on a moving bus. Somebody had to pay for the new tires and wheels, and the support truck to run along side the bus, and the extra fuel, and a discount for the new tires, etc. Once the new tires are on the bus can keep driving without support.

LUmBULtERA 3y ago

Given the dramatically lower costs of utility-scale solar vs. residential rooftop solar, is it not better at a society level for state policy to incentivize utility over residential solar? Utility-scale battery installations likewise should be much cheaper.

ghaff 3y ago
Residential solar may still make sense for new construction (maybe?) in the right areas. But there was a lot of scammy behavior around home solar installation at one point. Given that home solar does not effectively give you a backup generator for free (barring a lot of batteries and specific electrical hookups as I recall), it's not clear it's a big win in general. A lot of utility things aren't ideal at the individual house level if there's an option.
- mbgerring 3y ago
  A lot of home solar installers now include grid tied batteries as part of a standard installation, which is what NEM 3 was intended to do (secondarily, after its primary goal of giving CA IOUs a massive free lunch).
epistasis 3y ago
This argument ignores the cost of transmission and distribution, which are higher costs than the generation itself. And as electricity prices are driven down even further, T&D will come to dominate over energy generation costs. Few models account for this, but Christopher Clack made one, and the lowest cost energy path was a small amount of investment in distribution now, paired with massive deployment of solar on homes and industrial/commercial. This won't happen unless utilities are forced into it or their allowed profit model is changed to deliver ratepayers the lowest cost energy, however.
- LUmBULtERA 3y ago
  Unless every home is completely off the grid, you’re going to need to pay for most or the majority of that transmission and distribution anyway. Peak winter and summer I also would imagine many or most residential deployments aren’t going to cover their own need, unless they’re incredibly over built with massive batteries. In any case, I should check out your Christopher Clack reference.
  - nerdbert 3y ago
    You don't need as much grid capacity if houses have their own generation and storage.
    - kalleboo 3y ago
      The grid still needs to be built for the worst case - houses aren't going to have days of storage for a week of cold weather with dark clouds
      - fragmede 3y ago
        Worst case is months. In the depths of winter you need energy captured from the sun during summer. That's a drastic rethinking of the scale of storage.
        3y ago
conradev 3y ago
Generally, yes, but a few items: - Distribution systems today can only handle some percentage of EV penetration in a given area, not 100%. Charging an EV from the roof skips the grid entirely - The bulk of the cost is labor and permitting, not the modules themselves. Given that, California requires solar on newly constructed homes - California updated their net metering program so that ratepayers aren’t subsidizing rooftop solar anymore (in NEM 3.0, homeowners get paid wholesale rates)
- inglor_cz 3y ago
  "Charging an EV from the roof skips the grid entirely" As long as you have enough sunshine hours in your region. Southern Spain is fine year-round, but you won't get any meaningful output out of a solar panel in Finnish winter. The rest of Europe lies between those two extremes. Northern winter will be made more challenging by addition of EVs to the grid, because a lot of electricity is being used for heating as well.
photochemsyn 3y ago
As far as rooftop solar, it makes a big difference if solar PV is built into the design process at the beginning, rather than tacked on as an afterthought. Similarly, a household battery might be as common in the future as a household hot water heater (with a similar footprint, size-wise). There's also regional variability - cities absolutely require utility-scale solar, just as they require dedicated agricultural land to feed the population, because there's not enough surface area in a city. Rural/suburban areas on the other hand are ideal for integrated rooftop solar.
rstuart4133 3y ago
> Given the dramatically lower costs of utility-scale solar vs. residential rooftop solar According to Wikipedia the LCOE on small roof top solar is about twice that of utility solar. [0] So yes, it's dramatically better. But typically the price difference between what the utility is paid and what the customer is charged is 3 times, so your average household is better off installing solar despite generating it at twice the cost of a utility. The price difference isn't just transmission costs. It's also retail markup, regulatory charges and metering and billing. [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_sourc... - there are a lot of tables in that page. Twice looks to be generous to the utilities.

bsder 3y ago

> There has been a massive decline in rooftop solar applications in CA since solar energy reimbursements dropped People also learned that the cheap Chinese solar cells die in 5-10 years and aren't worth installing unless your electricity costs are really high.

jbm 3y ago
Is this something documented? I haven't heard of this and I've been following the space for a while.
- bsder 3y ago
  Mostly installers--probably about 7-10 years ago back when the American manufacturers got pushed out of the market by the Chinese ones. A lot of the installers got out of the business knowing they were on the hook when the warrantees came calling. Although, American manufacturers have been restarting since Biden adjusted some of the tariffs in 2023. We'll see if they go back to producing a decent product or if they just try to shovel garbage like China.

radium3d 3y ago

It's super cool you can watch California's grid level batteries "breathe" every day here, https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html#section-batteries-trend https://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html#sectio... Yesterday we peaked out at 3GW discharging rate, and 4GW charging rate. We are plowing ahead in the transition to utilizing all of our excess solar! We peak at 25GW expected today, so we have a little ways to go but it's incredible how far and how fast they're replacing everything. Clean air FTW! Thanks sun!

ketzo 3y ago
the CAISO website is super rad in general -- so many real-time charts!! demand trend is really cool to watch during heat waves; things get spiky on both the demand side (for obvious reason) and the supply side (peaker plants & "virtual" power plants coming online)
usefulcat 3y ago
Kind of unrelated, but I'm wondering why TX uses so much more electricity than CA. Right now (afternoon of 1/26) happens to be a good time to compare: -- Temperatures are mild throughout most of TX (50s and 60s F); temps in CA are similar, perhaps a bit warmer; -- It's roughly mid-day in both places (3PM TX, 1PM CA); -- TX has a population of ~30M, CA has ~39M ..yet somehow right now TX is consuming ~47GW (per ercot) while CA is only consuming ~23.5GW (per caiso). What gives? ERCOT: https://www.ercot.com/gridmktinfo/dashboards https://www.ercot.com/gridmktinfo/dashboards
- MichaelNolan 3y ago
  There are a few reasons. 1. TX has more heavy industry than CA. 2. CA has spent decades and billions on energy efficiency improvements. 3. CA prices are higher, which encourages lower demand, and encourages investments in efficiency. TX has lower prices which encourages more demand.
- ZeroGravitas 3y ago
  California takes a much more european approach to energy efficiency.

meandthewallaby 3y ago

That duck curve tweet is disingenuous. That curve in the tweet is for the lowest net load day (net load is actual load or usage minus generation from renewables). In 2023, if you took the day that had the least amount of net load, yes, it was almost entirely covered by solar power. That does _not_ mean the claim made in the tweet that California is run totally by solar power from 10am-4pm every day (today at 11:56 AM PST, it's about 51% run by solar power). California's grid has enough good things going for it that we don't need to lie about it. You can look this up for yourself: https://www.gridstatus.io/live/caiso https://www.gridstatus.io/live/caiso