5 ms·

It doesn't say "available for purchase." It says "will be commercially available for passenger use in major cities." Waymo is already there, in at least 2 citi

It doesn't say "available for purchase." It says "will be commercially available for passenger use in major cities." Waymo is already there, in at least 2 cities but not all weather conditions. Expanding to 10 cities and all weather conditions in the next 6 years sounds more than plausible. I had sided with Atwood (skeptic) but now it seems like Carmack "has already won".

paxys 3y ago
Waymo is level 3 at best. It is active in 1 flat city right now (and partially in another), and needs frequent interruption from remote drivers to get it out of hairy situations. You really think it will be fully rolled out in the 10 most populous cities in America in the next 6 years? You really think it'll work without any human interaction (local or remote)? This thing won't last 5 minutes in NYC or Philadelphia .
- triceratops 3y ago
  SF is a flat city?
  - rrix2 3y ago
    The parts of Phoenix where Waymo operates is... SF is "(partially in another)"
    - spankalee 3y ago
      Waymo operates in all of SF
- adastra22 3y ago
  It says "any" of the 10 most populous cities, not "all."
- thebradbain 3y ago
  It’s actually in LA now, which to me is a testament to its ability
mustacheemperor 3y ago
Is "all weather conditions" a global benchmark, or is it "all weather conditions occurring in the cities of operation?" At least in SF, I haven't seen a day where Waymo refused availability for the weather. Rode it all over town in the rainstorms this weekend, and found it a little jarring to see the windshield covered in rainwater cause the computer doesn't GAF. If it doesn't need to handle snow to win this bet, it seems it could handle Seattle-tier rain already.
- letitbeirie 3y ago
  They're allowed to have limits like "local driverless taxis don't operate outside SF city limits or below 35 degrees with precip in the forecast" etc. at level 4, but to meet level 5 (per the bet) it has to be able to "drive everywhere and in all conditions," [0] which adds a lot of really difficult edge cases. Situations that come immediately to mind: - Driving in the hurricane lane on the shoulder during an evacuation - Reversible lanes and streets - Sizing up an icy hill and figuring out whether it's safe to keep going - Ferries - Knowing a baseball entering the road from behind a parked car will probably be followed by a child - Understanding traffic police, sign turners, "follow me" trucks, etc. [0] https://www.sae.org/binaries/content/assets/cm/content/blog/sae-j3016-visual-chart_5.3.21.pdf https://www.sae.org/binaries/content/assets/cm/content/blog/...
  - mchusma 3y ago
    I think each of these is already handled, or at least most. They say 99.4% of uptime in record inclement weather, which seems like it should satisfy "all". https://waymo.com/blog/2023/08/the-waymo-drivers-rapid-learning-curve/ https://waymo.com/blog/2023/08/the-waymo-drivers-rapid-learn... I don't think they really mean "all" (like it shouldn't need to handle a lava flood). Just "all a human might do". This feels superhuman already. I actually see the main thing right now that would mean this bet is "not currently won by Carmack" is that they are not officially offering freeway access in its commercial product: https://waymo.com/blog/2024/01/from-surface-streets-to-freeways-safely-expanding-our-rider-only-testing/ https://waymo.com/blog/2024/01/from-surface-streets-to-freew... But this seems minor, and I can't imagine it taking more than 2 years to allow freeway driving in multiple metros. I can't fathom what would need to happen to derail this particular bet from being satisfied in Jan 2026 let alone Jan 2030. (Note: if it wasn't for Waymo, I think this timeline would be much less clear. Tesla/Cruise feel much less predictable.)
vardump 3y ago
I'll agree once Waymo can operate in any weather. Including snowy, meaning the road surface is completely covered by snow and ice plus heavy snowing.
- twoWhlsGud 3y ago
  I live in Seattle, and I can tell you with some certainty that most Seattle drivers are incapable of driving in all Seattle weather conditions...
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    That is a bit of an exaggeration. Yes, they do have problems in the rain, snow, or when it is really sunny out. But we are pretty good at driving in overcast but dry weather.
Sohcahtoa82 3y ago
> Waymo is already there, in at least 2 cities I find it odd that a self-driving system only works in 2 cities. Is the model overfitted to only know some specific locations? How does that work? Like, I can understand it struggling in snow or heavy rain. I can understand it struggling if the lines on the road are faded. But given a well-marked intersection in one city, and another well-marked intersection in another, why would it fail in one?
- rpmisms 3y ago
  > Is the model overfitted to only know some specific locations? Yes. Every inch of drivable area is LIDAR-mapped. The opposite of the antifragile approach, which is harder to execute but much more durable.
  - Sohcahtoa82 3y ago
    > Yes. Every inch of drivable area is LIDAR-mapped. If this is true, then I find it incredibly absurd that people would try to act like Waymo is farther than Tesla in self-driving tech. Tesla is trying to make self-driving work everywhere without pre-mapped data beyond what you'd get from Google Maps.
    - rpmisms 3y ago
      That's my position on it. Sure, it functions better, but you can drop a Tesla into an area it's never seen before and it will drive relatively competently. HD maps are a crutch, and ignoring that produces fragile solutions that just require massive overhead to function.
danbruc 3y ago
Waymo is already there, in at least 2 cities but not all weather conditions. A few weeks ago I saw a video of someone making his first Waymo ride, there was some construction site and the vehicle stopped and waited for some human to take over control. They are not there in any weather and given that the last 10 % of a problem have a tendency to consume 90 % of the effort, they might have a long road ahead even if it already mostly works.

paxys 3y ago

Waymo is level 3 at best. It is active in 1 flat city right now (and partially in another), and needs frequent interruption from remote drivers to get it out of hairy situations. You really think it will be fully rolled out in the 10 most populous cities in America in the next 6 years? You really think it'll work without any human interaction (local or remote)? This thing won't last 5 minutes in NYC or Philadelphia .

triceratops 3y ago
SF is a flat city?
- rrix2 3y ago
  The parts of Phoenix where Waymo operates is... SF is "(partially in another)"
  - spankalee 3y ago
    Waymo operates in all of SF
adastra22 3y ago
It says "any" of the 10 most populous cities, not "all."
thebradbain 3y ago
It’s actually in LA now, which to me is a testament to its ability

mustacheemperor 3y ago

Is "all weather conditions" a global benchmark, or is it "all weather conditions occurring in the cities of operation?" At least in SF, I haven't seen a day where Waymo refused availability for the weather. Rode it all over town in the rainstorms this weekend, and found it a little jarring to see the windshield covered in rainwater cause the computer doesn't GAF. If it doesn't need to handle snow to win this bet, it seems it could handle Seattle-tier rain already.

letitbeirie 3y ago
They're allowed to have limits like "local driverless taxis don't operate outside SF city limits or below 35 degrees with precip in the forecast" etc. at level 4, but to meet level 5 (per the bet) it has to be able to "drive everywhere and in all conditions," [0] which adds a lot of really difficult edge cases. Situations that come immediately to mind: - Driving in the hurricane lane on the shoulder during an evacuation - Reversible lanes and streets - Sizing up an icy hill and figuring out whether it's safe to keep going - Ferries - Knowing a baseball entering the road from behind a parked car will probably be followed by a child - Understanding traffic police, sign turners, "follow me" trucks, etc. [0] https://www.sae.org/binaries/content/assets/cm/content/blog/sae-j3016-visual-chart_5.3.21.pdf https://www.sae.org/binaries/content/assets/cm/content/blog/...
- mchusma 3y ago
  I think each of these is already handled, or at least most. They say 99.4% of uptime in record inclement weather, which seems like it should satisfy "all". https://waymo.com/blog/2023/08/the-waymo-drivers-rapid-learning-curve/ https://waymo.com/blog/2023/08/the-waymo-drivers-rapid-learn... I don't think they really mean "all" (like it shouldn't need to handle a lava flood). Just "all a human might do". This feels superhuman already. I actually see the main thing right now that would mean this bet is "not currently won by Carmack" is that they are not officially offering freeway access in its commercial product: https://waymo.com/blog/2024/01/from-surface-streets-to-freeways-safely-expanding-our-rider-only-testing/ https://waymo.com/blog/2024/01/from-surface-streets-to-freew... But this seems minor, and I can't imagine it taking more than 2 years to allow freeway driving in multiple metros. I can't fathom what would need to happen to derail this particular bet from being satisfied in Jan 2026 let alone Jan 2030. (Note: if it wasn't for Waymo, I think this timeline would be much less clear. Tesla/Cruise feel much less predictable.)

vardump 3y ago

I'll agree once Waymo can operate in any weather. Including snowy, meaning the road surface is completely covered by snow and ice plus heavy snowing.

twoWhlsGud 3y ago
I live in Seattle, and I can tell you with some certainty that most Seattle drivers are incapable of driving in all Seattle weather conditions...
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  That is a bit of an exaggeration. Yes, they do have problems in the rain, snow, or when it is really sunny out. But we are pretty good at driving in overcast but dry weather.

Sohcahtoa82 3y ago

> Waymo is already there, in at least 2 cities I find it odd that a self-driving system only works in 2 cities. Is the model overfitted to only know some specific locations? How does that work? Like, I can understand it struggling in snow or heavy rain. I can understand it struggling if the lines on the road are faded. But given a well-marked intersection in one city, and another well-marked intersection in another, why would it fail in one?

rpmisms 3y ago
> Is the model overfitted to only know some specific locations? Yes. Every inch of drivable area is LIDAR-mapped. The opposite of the antifragile approach, which is harder to execute but much more durable.
- Sohcahtoa82 3y ago
  > Yes. Every inch of drivable area is LIDAR-mapped. If this is true, then I find it incredibly absurd that people would try to act like Waymo is farther than Tesla in self-driving tech. Tesla is trying to make self-driving work everywhere without pre-mapped data beyond what you'd get from Google Maps.
  - rpmisms 3y ago
    That's my position on it. Sure, it functions better, but you can drop a Tesla into an area it's never seen before and it will drive relatively competently. HD maps are a crutch, and ignoring that produces fragile solutions that just require massive overhead to function.

danbruc 3y ago

Waymo is already there, in at least 2 cities but not all weather conditions. A few weeks ago I saw a video of someone making his first Waymo ride, there was some construction site and the vehicle stopped and waited for some human to take over control. They are not there in any weather and given that the last 10 % of a problem have a tendency to consume 90 % of the effort, they might have a long road ahead even if it already mostly works.