6 ms·

Always take these articles based on studies with a big pinch of salt. They’re typically funded by one side or the other, and consequently biased. All I can say

by ricw 3y ago

Always take these articles based on studies with a big pinch of salt. They’re typically funded by one side or the other, and consequently biased. All I can say from personal experience is that I’ve had a Tesla model 3 for 5+ years, and its maintenance has been virtually zero as Tesla fixed the creaks and quirks under warranty. Downtime was maybe 4 days, whilst we got a replacement vehicle. Break fluid and tires were replaced. That’s it. Rock solid drive train. Still have 250miles range out of 310 originally. Electric cost was roughly 1/3 of what gas should have been. No regrets here.

2OEH8eoCRo0 3y ago
"This article is biased, here is my biased personal anecdote."
- bpodgursky 3y ago
  Personal anecdotes with skin in the game (ie, the OP chooses to continue owning a Tesla) are more informative than "journalism" paid to have an opinion.
  - 2OEH8eoCRo0 3y ago
    When people buy things they become defensive about their choices.
    - bpodgursky 3y ago
      Or maybe it's just really irritating when people post low-effort articles that are obviously in conflict with personal experience.
    - sickofparadox 3y ago
      Sometimes, other times they become vocal and entrenched detractors. I've purchased and used many dell computers in the past, and I have nothing but disdain for the company.
  - johnchristopher 3y ago
    > Personal anecdotes with skin in the game (ie, the OP chooses to continue owning a Tesla) N=1 > are more informative than "journalism" [0] paid to have an opinion [1]. That's quite the statement. Can you point which parts of the article are paid for ? Especially when the conclusion goes against the title: > With battery prices predicted to continue steadily declining in the coming years, the math is likely to shift more in favor of EVs. [0] your bias is showing [1] everyone is entitled to it but for an opinion piece there were still some sources in it
  - PaulHoule 3y ago
    No doubt his operating costs are low. The question of the paper is: how long do you have to operate the car before the savings equal the difference in purchase? Somebody might feel good about spending more for a car that they like or that protects the environment, etc.
    - rlpb 3y ago
      > ...before the savings equal the difference in purchase twice. Why twice? Isn't once sufficient? One reason to require the expectation to be better than break even might be due to uncertainty. But EVs seem to have developed into better certainty about maintenance costs, since there are fewer suddenly large expenses ("need a new turbo" was my most recent ICE sudden expense experience, for example).
      - PaulHoule 3y ago
        That was a typo that I just fixed.
- semiquaver 3y ago
  Not only an anecdote, but one based entirely on in-warranty period, when repair costs are expected to be zero! I wonder how battery degradation factors in to this. After ten years of daily use, a well-maintained Toyota will continue to cost very little in maintenance, but a lithium battery will have lost 50% of its capacity. How does the need to replace a battery affect TCO? Or is the assumption that no one will own a car that long?
  - rlpb 3y ago
    Batteries tend to degrade to around 80% and then stay there. This is apparently the generally accepted trend now, but my anecdotal evidence matches: my Leaf is now nine years old and still has just over 80% of its capacity left.
  - bryanlarsen 3y ago
    > After ten years of daily use a lithium battery will have lost 50% of its capacity No it won't. If your degradation is that bad, you would have been able to replace the battery before the warranty was up. Most manufacturers are similar, but Tesla has a 70%/7 year battery warranty. Any battery that will hit 50% in 10 years would hit 70% in 7 years and you would have had it replaced. And obviously Tesla sets the warranty at a level where it doesn't expect to replace many batteries.
    - semiquaver 3y ago
      I had a look at the warranty and it says that they will not install a new battery, just one that gets you to the minimum of the promised degradation range: > For warranty claims specific to Battery capacity, the replacement Battery will be in a condition appropriate to the age and mileage of the vehicle sufficient to achieve or exceed the minimum Battery capacity for the remainder of the warranty period of the original Battery. Note that the vehicle’s range estimates are an imperfect measure of Battery capacity because they are affected by additional factors separate from Battery capacity. The measurement method used to determine Battery capacity, and the decision of whether to repair, replace, or provide reconditioned or remanufactured parts, and the condition of any such replaced, reconditioned or remanufactured parts, are at the sole discretion of Tesla. https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/downloads/Model_3_New_Vehicle_Limited_Warranty_NA_en.pdf https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/downloads/Model_3_...
- asulnatao 3y ago
  his personal anecdote is not biased, it has has high variance
brlewis 3y ago
Ideally there are enough details in the study to where you can evaluate the truthfulness of it from its content rather than its funding. But FWIW: https://css.umich.edu/people/external-advisory-board https://css.umich.edu/people/external-advisory-board
rantallion 3y ago
> Still have 250miles range out of 310 originally. I appreciate that batteries degrade over time, but think this will deter many would-be EV owners. Losing 1/6 of your total range in the first 5 years of owner just doesn't happen with ICE vehicles. How long until you're down to 1/2 the original total range and can no longer handle the journeys you bought the car for? I'll probably be in the market for a new car in the next 2-3 years, and I'd very much prefer to go green next time, but this puts me off somewhat. I wonder what the used market is going to be like too. Will many people want to buy cars that simply don't go as far as they used to (and will lose more miles as time goes on)? Do they just have to accept that a battery replacement will be necessary?
- whitej125 3y ago
  Agree that the range degradation is unsettling. My model 3 started with 320 and now its about 7-8% lower after 2 years. However, this is my daily driving car for which I put on average 25 miles a day... but maybe an occasional peak at 150 miles in a single day or weekend. One thing that you'll discover is that charging is super simple. Plug it in at home and fill it up (I have a 30amp 240v) whenever you want. Or go find a super charger nearby if you're in a pinch. Granted what people can do at home wrt/ electrical and how close you are to a super charger is all situational. But at least for me the loss in range hasn't changed my behavior or caused me any problems. However, important note: I do not use the Tesla for long distance trips. I've done it a few times... its fine, but prefer gas/ICE for that. Our Model 3 got 9000 miles added to it this past year. Our family 2011 Q5 got 1500 miles.
- 303uru 3y ago
  Is this a thing. I don't know off hand what the tank range was on any ICE car I've ever owned.
PaulHoule 3y ago
The article isn't claiming that the operating costs are more for XXL and very long range EVs than equivalent gas cars but that for smaller and shorter range vehicles the difference in operating costs is large enough to make up for the increased purchase cost. That's not an entirely fair metric because the CO2 emissions for the EV are more and these are an external cost that people aren't paying in most countries. if we had a $100/tonne CO2 carbon tax (which might make some carbon capture viable) that amounts to about $1 on a gallon of gas, which I'd imagine is about $500 a year for a compact car, could be quite a bit more than that for an XXL vehicle. For certain drivers with certain cars the difference could be close to the $7500 tax credit in 7 year or so.
whitej125 3y ago
Similar experience here with a ~2021 Model 3 in Massachusetts. Maintenance has been 0 thus far. Electric rates are high, I think.. compared to most of the US. I'm at $0.27/kwh looking at the last rolling 12 months. Still, at $0.27/kwh that roughly equates to about $0.07 per mile based on recorded usage in the car. In contrast... gas prices here are now $3.30/gallon. An ICE sedan might get 33mpg... so $0.10. A Hybrid however is on par or slightly beating (say 55mpg so thats $0.06). I've driven 18,000 miles over the last 2 years. So... call it $270/year in savings vs the ICE. I have a 12yo ICE SUV used as the family car for long trips. Even though we don't drive it a ton, I still have to change the oil (which I do myself and costs ~$60 all in). Is it an amazing savings. No. But the car is fun to drive, quiet, comfortable. It is our daily driver. The fact that I don't have to change its oil is a nice bonus.

by ricw 3y ago

2OEH8eoCRo0 3y ago

"This article is biased, here is my biased personal anecdote."

bpodgursky 3y ago
Personal anecdotes with skin in the game (ie, the OP chooses to continue owning a Tesla) are more informative than "journalism" paid to have an opinion.
- 2OEH8eoCRo0 3y ago
  When people buy things they become defensive about their choices.
  - bpodgursky 3y ago
    Or maybe it's just really irritating when people post low-effort articles that are obviously in conflict with personal experience.
  - sickofparadox 3y ago
    Sometimes, other times they become vocal and entrenched detractors. I've purchased and used many dell computers in the past, and I have nothing but disdain for the company.
- johnchristopher 3y ago
  > Personal anecdotes with skin in the game (ie, the OP chooses to continue owning a Tesla) N=1 > are more informative than "journalism" [0] paid to have an opinion [1]. That's quite the statement. Can you point which parts of the article are paid for ? Especially when the conclusion goes against the title: > With battery prices predicted to continue steadily declining in the coming years, the math is likely to shift more in favor of EVs. [0] your bias is showing [1] everyone is entitled to it but for an opinion piece there were still some sources in it
- PaulHoule 3y ago
  No doubt his operating costs are low. The question of the paper is: how long do you have to operate the car before the savings equal the difference in purchase? Somebody might feel good about spending more for a car that they like or that protects the environment, etc.
  - rlpb 3y ago
    > ...before the savings equal the difference in purchase twice. Why twice? Isn't once sufficient? One reason to require the expectation to be better than break even might be due to uncertainty. But EVs seem to have developed into better certainty about maintenance costs, since there are fewer suddenly large expenses ("need a new turbo" was my most recent ICE sudden expense experience, for example).
    - PaulHoule 3y ago
      That was a typo that I just fixed.
semiquaver 3y ago
Not only an anecdote, but one based entirely on in-warranty period, when repair costs are expected to be zero! I wonder how battery degradation factors in to this. After ten years of daily use, a well-maintained Toyota will continue to cost very little in maintenance, but a lithium battery will have lost 50% of its capacity. How does the need to replace a battery affect TCO? Or is the assumption that no one will own a car that long?
- rlpb 3y ago
  Batteries tend to degrade to around 80% and then stay there. This is apparently the generally accepted trend now, but my anecdotal evidence matches: my Leaf is now nine years old and still has just over 80% of its capacity left.
- bryanlarsen 3y ago
  > After ten years of daily use a lithium battery will have lost 50% of its capacity No it won't. If your degradation is that bad, you would have been able to replace the battery before the warranty was up. Most manufacturers are similar, but Tesla has a 70%/7 year battery warranty. Any battery that will hit 50% in 10 years would hit 70% in 7 years and you would have had it replaced. And obviously Tesla sets the warranty at a level where it doesn't expect to replace many batteries.
  - semiquaver 3y ago
    I had a look at the warranty and it says that they will not install a new battery, just one that gets you to the minimum of the promised degradation range: > For warranty claims specific to Battery capacity, the replacement Battery will be in a condition appropriate to the age and mileage of the vehicle sufficient to achieve or exceed the minimum Battery capacity for the remainder of the warranty period of the original Battery. Note that the vehicle’s range estimates are an imperfect measure of Battery capacity because they are affected by additional factors separate from Battery capacity. The measurement method used to determine Battery capacity, and the decision of whether to repair, replace, or provide reconditioned or remanufactured parts, and the condition of any such replaced, reconditioned or remanufactured parts, are at the sole discretion of Tesla. https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/downloads/Model_3_New_Vehicle_Limited_Warranty_NA_en.pdf https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/downloads/Model_3_...
asulnatao 3y ago
his personal anecdote is not biased, it has has high variance

brlewis 3y ago

Ideally there are enough details in the study to where you can evaluate the truthfulness of it from its content rather than its funding. But FWIW: https://css.umich.edu/people/external-advisory-board https://css.umich.edu/people/external-advisory-board

rantallion 3y ago

> Still have 250miles range out of 310 originally. I appreciate that batteries degrade over time, but think this will deter many would-be EV owners. Losing 1/6 of your total range in the first 5 years of owner just doesn't happen with ICE vehicles. How long until you're down to 1/2 the original total range and can no longer handle the journeys you bought the car for? I'll probably be in the market for a new car in the next 2-3 years, and I'd very much prefer to go green next time, but this puts me off somewhat. I wonder what the used market is going to be like too. Will many people want to buy cars that simply don't go as far as they used to (and will lose more miles as time goes on)? Do they just have to accept that a battery replacement will be necessary?

whitej125 3y ago
Agree that the range degradation is unsettling. My model 3 started with 320 and now its about 7-8% lower after 2 years. However, this is my daily driving car for which I put on average 25 miles a day... but maybe an occasional peak at 150 miles in a single day or weekend. One thing that you'll discover is that charging is super simple. Plug it in at home and fill it up (I have a 30amp 240v) whenever you want. Or go find a super charger nearby if you're in a pinch. Granted what people can do at home wrt/ electrical and how close you are to a super charger is all situational. But at least for me the loss in range hasn't changed my behavior or caused me any problems. However, important note: I do not use the Tesla for long distance trips. I've done it a few times... its fine, but prefer gas/ICE for that. Our Model 3 got 9000 miles added to it this past year. Our family 2011 Q5 got 1500 miles.
303uru 3y ago
Is this a thing. I don't know off hand what the tank range was on any ICE car I've ever owned.

PaulHoule 3y ago

The article isn't claiming that the operating costs are more for XXL and very long range EVs than equivalent gas cars but that for smaller and shorter range vehicles the difference in operating costs is large enough to make up for the increased purchase cost. That's not an entirely fair metric because the CO2 emissions for the EV are more and these are an external cost that people aren't paying in most countries. if we had a $100/tonne CO2 carbon tax (which might make some carbon capture viable) that amounts to about $1 on a gallon of gas, which I'd imagine is about $500 a year for a compact car, could be quite a bit more than that for an XXL vehicle. For certain drivers with certain cars the difference could be close to the $7500 tax credit in 7 year or so.

whitej125 3y ago

Similar experience here with a ~2021 Model 3 in Massachusetts. Maintenance has been 0 thus far. Electric rates are high, I think.. compared to most of the US. I'm at $0.27/kwh looking at the last rolling 12 months. Still, at $0.27/kwh that roughly equates to about $0.07 per mile based on recorded usage in the car. In contrast... gas prices here are now $3.30/gallon. An ICE sedan might get 33mpg... so $0.10. A Hybrid however is on par or slightly beating (say 55mpg so thats $0.06). I've driven 18,000 miles over the last 2 years. So... call it $270/year in savings vs the ICE. I have a 12yo ICE SUV used as the family car for long trips. Even though we don't drive it a ton, I still have to change the oil (which I do myself and costs ~$60 all in). Is it an amazing savings. No. But the car is fun to drive, quiet, comfortable. It is our daily driver. The fact that I don't have to change its oil is a nice bonus.