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You may misunderstand how the "entire world" thinks about it. I'm French and live in Hong Kong so I'm exposed to a lot of European and Asian real estate experi
by xwolfi 3y ago
You may misunderstand how the "entire world" thinks about it.
I'm French and live in Hong Kong so I'm exposed to a lot of European and Asian real estate experience, have friends with everything from a villa in Vietnam to a flat in Berlin etc.
So the way we see the US is:
- it's risky to live there, for many reasons (high crime, gun ownership, children mass murders, rampant untreated schizophrenia, drug abuse issues)
- it's optimized for gasoline consumption, you can't really live near your work as much as elsewhere, the city center isn't as interesting as in Asia/Europe and suburbs are very low-density, copy-pasted houses, so the "value" of a property is more flimsy than other places.
- it's expensive with low speculative upside: it's a very mature market, it might conserve some value but it won't like double like in Saigon, Bangkok or Lisbon, and it won't "last forever" like Paris or Hong Kong who have structural reasons to be expensive (Paris as capital of a European geographical center between 6 rich countries, Hong Kong as a gateway in and out of China). To give you a random example: Seattle is quite "new" and particularly useless / unknown to, say, a successful Tokyo upstart. It's considerably more expensive than what it should be from an Asian point of view.
- Visas are annoyingly complex vs very open economies (in term of real estate investment) and the US is far down the ranking of countries you trust to access your property easily. I'd rather have a small thing in Singapore that I know I'll always be welcome to visit, than something huge in Ohio which will make me feel like shit each time I have to fill paperwork to see.
- Political instability seems to have taken hold and we never know if foreigners will be barred from the US on a whim because of some flu. It doesn't feel that much better than China, which is considered one of the worst market to invest in around me (basically you have random chances to simply see your house unreachable for years there, or disappear).
I feel "the rest of the world" considers the US as average, not too dangerous but not too profitable to invest in. Most of my friends are very wary of investing there. I would never myself. All these may be factually wrong btw, this is just how I hear the market talks around me, in the rest of the world: the US "brand" is not very popular, is all.
- mlhpdx 3y agoIf risk isn’t proportional to reward,… well it is almost always. Emerging markets are riskier and more rewarding (when the risk isn’t active), mature markets are less risky and less rewarding (unless comparative emerging markets craters). I personally don’t think the term of loans or the maturity of the US market has much to do with the low volume of home sales. Rather, it’s a combination of loss aversion (as others have pointed out) and general uncertainty.
- jdksmdbtbdnmsm 3y agoI didn't say anything about living here. See "investment real estate"
- xwolfi 3y agoSame, but why would others live there ? When you invest in real estate, you expect, I hope, to rent. Sure you can just wait it out and lose in estate taxes, but normally: you expect people to live there. Sadly, since living conditions in the US are deteriorating, dangerous, and unattractive, your investment... is the same: people won't pay a fortune in rent for the privilege of being mugged in their sleep (exaggerating for effect). And again I'm not even saying that it's actually like that there, but that's how we seem to perceive the US from abroad: we're not jumping on it, it's scary and strange, and it doesn't bring as much yield as safer, less unstable countries. I'd rather buy a losing property in Japan, making up for the value loss (automatic there due to earthquake damages) in stable unchanging rent, with an asset I can safely visit when needed, or at least just access when needing to sell. If you just want real estate exposure you make a REIT mix and pray the Gods you won't be scammed, from a few click in your broker's app. When you buy a real thing, you don't touch the US.
- jdksmdbtbdnmsm 3y ago>Same, but why would others live there ? Because has more theoretical opportunity than where they live and they can't move to Europe. This is not complicated.