3 ms·

I think it's pretty clear that the importance of TSMC will decline at the same rate as the price per transistor decreases ever more slowly. Chip companies don't

I think it's pretty clear that the importance of TSMC will decline at the same rate as the price per transistor decreases ever more slowly. Chip companies don't need the most recent node when it offers hardly any improvement per cost. The slower the progress, the easier it is for competitors to catch up "close enough". Currently being two years behind the bleeding edge makes a significant difference, but not as much as ten years ago, and probably more than a few years from now.

dv_dt 3y ago
I don’t think that’s clear at all. All I’ve seen is many small fabs closing down were close enough to bleeding edge wasn’t sustainable. Intel is only surviving its last (and current?) fumble because of their past lead. Though maybe I’m just out of the loop? who are the accessible close enough competition that you have in mind?
Dalewyn 3y ago
The writing is indeed on the wall for TSMC's (and consequently Taiwan's) political value. The entirety of the western world has made it clear, with cold hard cash and sheer political will, that they want out of the singular egg basket that is Taiwan. Noone wants to be in the path of the inevitable freight train that is One China(tm).
- bee_rider 3y ago
  We’re both moving at the same time of course, the US has a huge amount of resources, so I’m sure if we had, say, a decade long really focused manufacturing-based economic policy there’s nothing they could do to keep us from taking the crown. Alternatively if we catch a unicorn and contact some aliens maybe they’ll tell us how to make CPUs out of the horn.
bee_rider 3y ago
People like to buy the best chip, being in the “best” position has a advantage in-and-of-itself I think. If the field actually stagnates for good, yeah, they’d have to pivot I guess. We’ll see if/when it happens.
prng2021 3y ago
Actually, isn't it quite clear that the complete opposite of what you said is true? TSMC's importance is at an all time high right now even though, as you said, being 2 years behind doesn't make as much a difference as it did 10 years ago.
- AnthonyMouse 3y ago
  TSMC's importance is at an all time high because they're finally in the lead, which wasn't true 10 years ago, when it was Intel.

dv_dt 3y ago

I don’t think that’s clear at all. All I’ve seen is many small fabs closing down were close enough to bleeding edge wasn’t sustainable. Intel is only surviving its last (and current?) fumble because of their past lead. Though maybe I’m just out of the loop? who are the accessible close enough competition that you have in mind?

Dalewyn 3y ago

The writing is indeed on the wall for TSMC's (and consequently Taiwan's) political value. The entirety of the western world has made it clear, with cold hard cash and sheer political will, that they want out of the singular egg basket that is Taiwan. Noone wants to be in the path of the inevitable freight train that is One China(tm).

bee_rider 3y ago
We’re both moving at the same time of course, the US has a huge amount of resources, so I’m sure if we had, say, a decade long really focused manufacturing-based economic policy there’s nothing they could do to keep us from taking the crown. Alternatively if we catch a unicorn and contact some aliens maybe they’ll tell us how to make CPUs out of the horn.

bee_rider 3y ago

People like to buy the best chip, being in the “best” position has a advantage in-and-of-itself I think. If the field actually stagnates for good, yeah, they’d have to pivot I guess. We’ll see if/when it happens.

prng2021 3y ago

Actually, isn't it quite clear that the complete opposite of what you said is true? TSMC's importance is at an all time high right now even though, as you said, being 2 years behind doesn't make as much a difference as it did 10 years ago.

AnthonyMouse 3y ago
TSMC's importance is at an all time high because they're finally in the lead, which wasn't true 10 years ago, when it was Intel.