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My take is that Europe, Japan, China are all facing the same problem: If you reduce housing to affordable prices, for example by building lots of government-ow

My take is that Europe, Japan, China are all facing the same problem: If you reduce housing to affordable prices, for example by building lots of government-owned rental units like in Singapore, then the old generation who invested into housing is upset that you destroyed their assets. If you keep housing an appreciating asset, then young people are too poor to raise kids on their parents' level, so they might delay/abandon having kids.

inkyoto 3y ago
Japan does not have the same house affordability problem. Houses and rent are low compared to most 1st world countries (not including the «luxury» accommodation). Japanese houses are pulled down and rebuilt from scratch every 20-30 years, and concrete buildings last 40-50 years before being torn down, which provides a deterrent from the housing being used as a nest egg. Then there are also cultural nuances where the Japanese people prefer new over old, hence holding on to an old house is uncommon. Property inheritance taxes are also substantial or sky high and make it unpallatable for most people to financially commit to a house long term to pass it on to an family member.
- DANmode 3y ago
  "Cultural nuances", like avoiding obvious chronic health problems related to living in old, moldy wooden structures (as a good portion of the US does).
  - petre 3y ago
    They also have higher earthquake incidence, which can quickly diminish one's real estate asset valuation.
- fxtentacle 3y ago
  It is expensive to live where the jobs are. And young families need the income. And they usually don't have the time for a long commute. "Tokyo is one of the most expensive cities in the world. It made the number 10 spot on Deutsche Bank’s annual Mapping the World’s Prices report in 2019 and is the third most expensive city for expatriates on Mercer’s 2020 Cost of Living Survey." https://blog.gaijinpot.com/how-much-is-the-average-rent-in-tokyo/ https://blog.gaijinpot.com/how-much-is-the-average-rent-in-t...
  - inkyoto 3y ago
    From the quoted article: > «However, you’ll often hear from people that Tokyo isn’t “that expensive,” which isn’t false, depending on your location and lifestyle. Indeed, the Deutsche Bank report lists the average price for a “typical” Tokyo two-bedroom apartment as US$1,903 (¥203,730)». A random look through apartments in Shibuya-ku (https://apartments.gaijinpot.com/en/rent/tokyo/shibuya-ku https://apartments.gaijinpot.com/en/rent/tokyo/shibuya-ku), one of the most expensive wards in Tokyo, has turned up a 3 bedroom apartment for JPY 441,000 (~ USD3k) a month. This is less than the cost of a 2 bedroom apartment in the Sydney CBD today. Most importantly, these are rental prices. My point remains – house prices in Japan are low, and the cost of living for an expat does not translate into local housing costs.
    - fxtentacle 3y ago
      My impression is that young Japanese nowadays are spending a larger percentage of their income on rent than their parents did. That might lead to them not feeling financially ready yet, especially when comparing to an elderly generation which owned the family home at their age. Also, you're not wrong with your comparison against Sydney. But are young families in Sydney having more kids? Or is it maybe just bad in both cases?
      - inkyoto 3y ago
        Young Japanese with professional jobs are different from young Japanese living in the countryside. The former is the lifelong job stability (job hopping is far less common in the Japanese corporate environment compared to the West), and the latter is oftentimes (but not always) a job in a cottage industry, e.g. running a centuries long family business that makes combs or grows green tea. Wages are overall lower in Japan, but that somewhat levels off with food and housing being lower as well. Yes, young families in Sydney are procreating, and quite successfully so. Two children are nearly a norm, three children is also common, and even four children is not that uncommon. Preschool enrollments are at an all time high.
        3y ago
reducesuffering 3y ago
There's a middle ground. You keep housing the same price, slowly eroded away by inflation. Owning a home has become severely over-represented in the average person's basket of goods. Time for it, like other essentials, to become a small part of one's income.

inkyoto 3y ago

Japan does not have the same house affordability problem. Houses and rent are low compared to most 1st world countries (not including the «luxury» accommodation). Japanese houses are pulled down and rebuilt from scratch every 20-30 years, and concrete buildings last 40-50 years before being torn down, which provides a deterrent from the housing being used as a nest egg. Then there are also cultural nuances where the Japanese people prefer new over old, hence holding on to an old house is uncommon. Property inheritance taxes are also substantial or sky high and make it unpallatable for most people to financially commit to a house long term to pass it on to an family member.

DANmode 3y ago
"Cultural nuances", like avoiding obvious chronic health problems related to living in old, moldy wooden structures (as a good portion of the US does).
- petre 3y ago
  They also have higher earthquake incidence, which can quickly diminish one's real estate asset valuation.
fxtentacle 3y ago
It is expensive to live where the jobs are. And young families need the income. And they usually don't have the time for a long commute. "Tokyo is one of the most expensive cities in the world. It made the number 10 spot on Deutsche Bank’s annual Mapping the World’s Prices report in 2019 and is the third most expensive city for expatriates on Mercer’s 2020 Cost of Living Survey." https://blog.gaijinpot.com/how-much-is-the-average-rent-in-tokyo/ https://blog.gaijinpot.com/how-much-is-the-average-rent-in-t...
- inkyoto 3y ago
  From the quoted article: > «However, you’ll often hear from people that Tokyo isn’t “that expensive,” which isn’t false, depending on your location and lifestyle. Indeed, the Deutsche Bank report lists the average price for a “typical” Tokyo two-bedroom apartment as US$1,903 (¥203,730)». A random look through apartments in Shibuya-ku (https://apartments.gaijinpot.com/en/rent/tokyo/shibuya-ku https://apartments.gaijinpot.com/en/rent/tokyo/shibuya-ku), one of the most expensive wards in Tokyo, has turned up a 3 bedroom apartment for JPY 441,000 (~ USD3k) a month. This is less than the cost of a 2 bedroom apartment in the Sydney CBD today. Most importantly, these are rental prices. My point remains – house prices in Japan are low, and the cost of living for an expat does not translate into local housing costs.
  - fxtentacle 3y ago
    My impression is that young Japanese nowadays are spending a larger percentage of their income on rent than their parents did. That might lead to them not feeling financially ready yet, especially when comparing to an elderly generation which owned the family home at their age. Also, you're not wrong with your comparison against Sydney. But are young families in Sydney having more kids? Or is it maybe just bad in both cases?
    - inkyoto 3y ago
      Young Japanese with professional jobs are different from young Japanese living in the countryside. The former is the lifelong job stability (job hopping is far less common in the Japanese corporate environment compared to the West), and the latter is oftentimes (but not always) a job in a cottage industry, e.g. running a centuries long family business that makes combs or grows green tea. Wages are overall lower in Japan, but that somewhat levels off with food and housing being lower as well. Yes, young families in Sydney are procreating, and quite successfully so. Two children are nearly a norm, three children is also common, and even four children is not that uncommon. Preschool enrollments are at an all time high.
      - 3y ago

reducesuffering 3y ago

There's a middle ground. You keep housing the same price, slowly eroded away by inflation. Owning a home has become severely over-represented in the average person's basket of goods. Time for it, like other essentials, to become a small part of one's income.