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I don't think anyone seriously considers Russia as an emerging superpower. There's a difference between being an international player and being a superpower.

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cpursley 3y ago
Why not? Their economy is growing (despite being the most sanctioned nation on earth and cut off from SWIFT) and they are integrating with several other regional players. They are energy and food self-sufficient, have a relatively large and well educated population, launch payloads into space on the regular, export complex things like nuclear reactors. On the military side, they are one of the only that could sink an entire carrier battle group or an entire city in a flash.
- ric2b 3y ago
  Their economy is not growing, that's just GDP being boosted on paper by a war economy, as usual. Dragging a bunch of people out of unemployment to go die in trenches or to build IFV's that get blown up 2 weeks later makes your GDP larger but your citizens poorer.
- ric2b 3y ago
  Their economy is not growing, they're just dragging people out of unemployment because they're in a war economy. That makes GDP numbers look good but in reality they're getting their citizens killed and using a bunch of production capacity to build vehicles and weapons that get destroyed a few months later, they're getting poorer.
  - cpursley 3y ago
    Yes, their economy is growing and it's been widely reported. GDP PPP is now on par with Germany. And that's even after becoming the most sanctioned country on earth and cut off from SWIFT. Regarding "unemployment" - they've got historically low unemployment and an acute labor shortage at the moment. Also very widely reported.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - ric2b 3y ago
      Yes, those are all results of war economies. It looks really good on paper but such generic numbers like GDP aren't that useful when comparing very different types of economies. Russia has lost a significant portion of their export customers and is now losing a lot of productive capacity to keep the war going.
- nradov 3y ago
  Russia has a shrinking population. Their demographic distribution is among the worst. Their higher education system is a mess, and in most ways has actually declined since the collapse of the USSR. On the military side, their ICBMs can still destroy cities. But their ability to take out a carrier strike force no longer exists at a credible level: some of the key links in the kill chain barely exist any more. They have no real expeditionary capability and can't project power much beyond their immediate borders.
  - cpursley 3y ago
    Their population has mostly stabilized (still declining, but not at previous rates) and their demographics are better than many Western European countries and certainly better that the rest of Eastern Europe. > their ability to take out a carrier strike force A Project 22350 could absolutely disable a carrier strike group: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/05/europe/russia-warship-hypersonic-missile-deployed-intl-hnk-ml/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/05/europe/russia-warship-hyperso... And that's ignoring their new sub lineup, which also field Zircon's among other systems.
- Intralexical 3y ago
  Most of the things you mentioned are leftovers from the Soviet days, and are presently in decline. > Their economy is growing As the other commenters said, that's a war economy, plus some creative bookkeeping/regulation. > and they are integrating with several other regional players. The past few years have shown the CSTO¹, EEU², CIS³, etc. are a joke. > They are energy and food self-sufficient So are Canada, Brazil, Australia, Indonesia… > relatively large and well educated population Aging and dying. "Demographic crisis". Same for Japan, but at least Japan's doing better in most other metrics. > launch payloads into space on the regular "Regular", in the sense that the launch rate collapsed by over 80% in the late 1980s, and hasn't recovered⁴, even as the US and PRC have been exploding. > export complex things like nuclear reactors. So do Germany, France, Canada, the Netherlands— Most advanced economies, really. > On the military side, they are one of the only that could sink an entire carrier battle group or an entire city in a flash. Their flagship needs a tugboat following for when it bursts into flames⁵. They've built a grand total of 36 "5th-generation" combat aircraft, which are apparently less advanced⁶ than most countries' newer 4th-gen fighters⁷. They've even used up their stockpiles of tens of thousands of ancient tanks (at least the ones that hadn't already been rusted and looted irreparably) at a rate⁸ they'll never be able to replace. Nuclear weapons aren't hard if you have a civilian nuclear energy sector. Rockets are old tech unless you're looking at non-chemical propulsion, reusable boosters, etc. Lots of countries could do those things within a couple years if needed, but we don't because they don't usually make enough sense unless you're already a superpower in other ways⁹. Russia does a large number of flashy things, but it's for prestige, momentum, and autarky, and they can do less and less of it each year, rather than expressing any actual economic power. They probably could have done quite well by focusing on tech/cultural, manufacturing, and resource exports. But wealthy nations won't buy from them now they've gone mask-off with the genocidal aggression, and their civil society is too corrupt to the core to fix itself. --- 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Nagorno-Karabakh_War#Russia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Nagorno-Karabakh_War#Ru... 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_Economic_Union#Economy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_Economic_Union#Econom... 3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2%80%93Commonwealth_of_Independent_States_relations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2%80%93Commonwealth_o... 4. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1327132/payloads-launched-russia/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1327132/payloads-launche... 5. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_aircraft_carrier_Admiral_Kuznetsov#2016%E2%80%932017_deployment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_aircraft_carrier_Admir... 6. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-57#Stealth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-57#Stealth 7. https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/stealth-aircraft-rcs.htm https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/stealth-aircra... 8. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/08/09/russian-tanks-depleted-stock-heavy-losses-ukraine/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/08/09/russian-ta... 9. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_latency https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_latency

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

cpursley 3y ago

Why not? Their economy is growing (despite being the most sanctioned nation on earth and cut off from SWIFT) and they are integrating with several other regional players. They are energy and food self-sufficient, have a relatively large and well educated population, launch payloads into space on the regular, export complex things like nuclear reactors. On the military side, they are one of the only that could sink an entire carrier battle group or an entire city in a flash.

ric2b 3y ago
Their economy is not growing, that's just GDP being boosted on paper by a war economy, as usual. Dragging a bunch of people out of unemployment to go die in trenches or to build IFV's that get blown up 2 weeks later makes your GDP larger but your citizens poorer.
ric2b 3y ago
Their economy is not growing, they're just dragging people out of unemployment because they're in a war economy. That makes GDP numbers look good but in reality they're getting their citizens killed and using a bunch of production capacity to build vehicles and weapons that get destroyed a few months later, they're getting poorer.
- cpursley 3y ago
  Yes, their economy is growing and it's been widely reported. GDP PPP is now on par with Germany. And that's even after becoming the most sanctioned country on earth and cut off from SWIFT. Regarding "unemployment" - they've got historically low unemployment and an acute labor shortage at the moment. Also very widely reported.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - ric2b 3y ago
    Yes, those are all results of war economies. It looks really good on paper but such generic numbers like GDP aren't that useful when comparing very different types of economies. Russia has lost a significant portion of their export customers and is now losing a lot of productive capacity to keep the war going.
nradov 3y ago
Russia has a shrinking population. Their demographic distribution is among the worst. Their higher education system is a mess, and in most ways has actually declined since the collapse of the USSR. On the military side, their ICBMs can still destroy cities. But their ability to take out a carrier strike force no longer exists at a credible level: some of the key links in the kill chain barely exist any more. They have no real expeditionary capability and can't project power much beyond their immediate borders.
- cpursley 3y ago
  Their population has mostly stabilized (still declining, but not at previous rates) and their demographics are better than many Western European countries and certainly better that the rest of Eastern Europe. > their ability to take out a carrier strike force A Project 22350 could absolutely disable a carrier strike group: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/05/europe/russia-warship-hypersonic-missile-deployed-intl-hnk-ml/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/05/europe/russia-warship-hyperso... And that's ignoring their new sub lineup, which also field Zircon's among other systems.
Intralexical 3y ago
Most of the things you mentioned are leftovers from the Soviet days, and are presently in decline. > Their economy is growing As the other commenters said, that's a war economy, plus some creative bookkeeping/regulation. > and they are integrating with several other regional players. The past few years have shown the CSTO¹, EEU², CIS³, etc. are a joke. > They are energy and food self-sufficient So are Canada, Brazil, Australia, Indonesia… > relatively large and well educated population Aging and dying. "Demographic crisis". Same for Japan, but at least Japan's doing better in most other metrics. > launch payloads into space on the regular "Regular", in the sense that the launch rate collapsed by over 80% in the late 1980s, and hasn't recovered⁴, even as the US and PRC have been exploding. > export complex things like nuclear reactors. So do Germany, France, Canada, the Netherlands— Most advanced economies, really. > On the military side, they are one of the only that could sink an entire carrier battle group or an entire city in a flash. Their flagship needs a tugboat following for when it bursts into flames⁵. They've built a grand total of 36 "5th-generation" combat aircraft, which are apparently less advanced⁶ than most countries' newer 4th-gen fighters⁷. They've even used up their stockpiles of tens of thousands of ancient tanks (at least the ones that hadn't already been rusted and looted irreparably) at a rate⁸ they'll never be able to replace. Nuclear weapons aren't hard if you have a civilian nuclear energy sector. Rockets are old tech unless you're looking at non-chemical propulsion, reusable boosters, etc. Lots of countries could do those things within a couple years if needed, but we don't because they don't usually make enough sense unless you're already a superpower in other ways⁹. Russia does a large number of flashy things, but it's for prestige, momentum, and autarky, and they can do less and less of it each year, rather than expressing any actual economic power. They probably could have done quite well by focusing on tech/cultural, manufacturing, and resource exports. But wealthy nations won't buy from them now they've gone mask-off with the genocidal aggression, and their civil society is too corrupt to the core to fix itself. --- 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Nagorno-Karabakh_War#Russia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Nagorno-Karabakh_War#Ru... 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_Economic_Union#Economy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_Economic_Union#Econom... 3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2%80%93Commonwealth_of_Independent_States_relations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E2%80%93Commonwealth_o... 4. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1327132/payloads-launched-russia/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1327132/payloads-launche... 5. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_aircraft_carrier_Admiral_Kuznetsov#2016%E2%80%932017_deployment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_aircraft_carrier_Admir... 6. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-57#Stealth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Su-57#Stealth 7. https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/stealth-aircraft-rcs.htm https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/stealth-aircra... 8. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/08/09/russian-tanks-depleted-stock-heavy-losses-ukraine/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/08/09/russian-ta... 9. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_latency https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_latency