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If you're still saying things like "there is no viable path except nuclear power" in 2024, then you're not paying any attention to what's happening in the world

If you're still saying things like "there is no viable path except nuclear power" in 2024, then you're not paying any attention to what's happening in the world right now. There is literally no economic path to deploying enough nuclear to make a difference right on the timescales necessary to fight climate change, while renewable construction is on an exponential tear (particularly in China). Storage costs are also dropping on an exponential curve. Meanwhile nuclear costs and deployment aren't seeing anything similar. https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/china-s-solar-capacity-surges-expected-to-top-1-tw-by-2026 https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/china-s-solar-capacity-sur...

jjtheblunt 3y ago
exponential? is there a link where i can read about the storage costs dropping exponentially and renewable construction growing exponentially? (i thought china was in a construction freeze with a huge quantity of incomplete high rises, for example)
marcosdumay 3y ago
Ouch that link. When people stop ignoring exponential growth, they just decide to project it forward without any consideration. I really doubt China's electricity usage will more than double until 2026. Or that it will be 100% (or rather, 300%?) replaced by solar.
- matthewdgreen 3y ago
  China is aiming to build 206 GW of additional renewables (excluding coal and nuclear) in 2024, and they reached their 2023 targets ahead of schedule.
  - marcosdumay 3y ago
    And they probably will. The article says they'll have 5 times that, from solar alone, by 2026. What they almost certainly won't, there's nobody to buy that much energy and it's not enough time to create some industry that could use it.
xedrac 3y ago
You keep using that word (exponential), but I do not think it means what you think it means.
- matthewdgreen 3y ago
  It means that growth in renewable deployment over the past several years can be fit to an exponential curve, and shows no signs of immediate slowdown. If what you think I’m saying is that growth will continue on that trajectory forever, then that’s a very foolish thought.
  - xedrac 3y ago
    I'm sorry my comment was a little snarky. What I meant to say is that is not an exponential curve. It may have tracked with a quadratic curve, or even a cubic curve, but not an exponential curve. In mathematics, a curve that grows exponentially is (loose definition) one where the exponent is increasing as you move along the x-axis. f(x)=2^x is an example of an exponential curve. f(x)=x^2 is an example of a quadratic curve that may better describe what you're referring to.
    - matthewdgreen 3y ago
      In this case we're talking about a situation where growth occurs by a (relatively) constant percentage over a period of time. Between 2000-2022 solar capacity has been increasing at about 37% per year, doubling every 2.2 years (per Wikipedia) and that trend appears to be on track to continue for at least a few more years, until (obviously) it levels out because the world is finite.

jjtheblunt 3y ago

exponential? is there a link where i can read about the storage costs dropping exponentially and renewable construction growing exponentially? (i thought china was in a construction freeze with a huge quantity of incomplete high rises, for example)

marcosdumay 3y ago

Ouch that link. When people stop ignoring exponential growth, they just decide to project it forward without any consideration. I really doubt China's electricity usage will more than double until 2026. Or that it will be 100% (or rather, 300%?) replaced by solar.

matthewdgreen 3y ago
China is aiming to build 206 GW of additional renewables (excluding coal and nuclear) in 2024, and they reached their 2023 targets ahead of schedule.
- marcosdumay 3y ago
  And they probably will. The article says they'll have 5 times that, from solar alone, by 2026. What they almost certainly won't, there's nobody to buy that much energy and it's not enough time to create some industry that could use it.

xedrac 3y ago

You keep using that word (exponential), but I do not think it means what you think it means.

matthewdgreen 3y ago
It means that growth in renewable deployment over the past several years can be fit to an exponential curve, and shows no signs of immediate slowdown. If what you think I’m saying is that growth will continue on that trajectory forever, then that’s a very foolish thought.
- xedrac 3y ago
  I'm sorry my comment was a little snarky. What I meant to say is that is not an exponential curve. It may have tracked with a quadratic curve, or even a cubic curve, but not an exponential curve. In mathematics, a curve that grows exponentially is (loose definition) one where the exponent is increasing as you move along the x-axis. f(x)=2^x is an example of an exponential curve. f(x)=x^2 is an example of a quadratic curve that may better describe what you're referring to.
  - matthewdgreen 3y ago
    In this case we're talking about a situation where growth occurs by a (relatively) constant percentage over a period of time. Between 2000-2022 solar capacity has been increasing at about 37% per year, doubling every 2.2 years (per Wikipedia) and that trend appears to be on track to continue for at least a few more years, until (obviously) it levels out because the world is finite.