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This appears like wishful thinking to me, because motorcycles have been available for a century, but people still almost always prefer cars if they can afford t

This appears like wishful thinking to me, because motorcycles have been available for a century, but people still almost always prefer cars if they can afford them. Cars keep you much better protected from temperature, weather and traffic; it seems very unlikely to me that people will just forgo these comforts to rent electric rollers in the future. Keeping a similar total number of privately owned cars, but almost all electric, sounds MUCH more likely to me.

otabdeveloper4 3y ago
It doesn't matter if cars are more comfortable. Cars are a massive waste of energy and resources compared to other transport options we have now. Societis/cultures who ignore efficiency will be eventually forced to adapt against their will. It's just market economics. (E.g., you can be obstinate and waste a significant chunk of your income just for the perceived comfort of a car, but over a few generations these people will lose in economic competition to people who act rationally.)
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- pfdietz 3y ago
  "People won't do something if it's not efficient" is quite a take. Demonstrably wrong, too. People will happily trade off more energy consumption for personal convenience. As PV goes down its experience curve, the cost of operating an electric vehicle will fall. As batteries go down their curves, the cost of the vehicles themselves will fall. This will naturally push the equilibrium tradeoff point to larger, more energy intensive vehicles.
  - bluejekyll 3y ago
    As someone who’s adopting bikes for most of my utility needs, food shopping, dropping kids off at school, one thing I can’t agree with is that cars are more convenient. In general, I find cars to be far less convenient. They are annoying to park, often get stuck in traffic, and generally are just annoying large boxes that you need a lot of space to maneuver. Using a cargo bike for most of those needs on the other hand is far more convenient. Cars are definitely more comfortable, especially on rainy days. But even on rainy days, I often choose to ride (if it’s not a crazy storm) as it’s still more convenient.
    - nradov 3y ago
      Cars are only inconvenient in a few dense urban areas. In the places where most Americans live/work/shop/recreate there is plenty of free parking and traffic isn't too bad. Cargo bikes can be a great option, though.
      - bluejekyll 3y ago
        Most Americans live in urban or dense suburban environments: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-03-26/u-s-urban-population-is-up-but-what-does-urban-really-mean https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-03-26/u-s-urban... https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/urban-rural-populations.html https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/urban-ru...
        nradov 3y ago
        You appear to have misunderstood the Census definitions. Most of what they label as "urban" or "suburban" is hardly dense by urban planning standards. The people living in those places mostly have a surplus of parking.
        bluejekyll 3y ago
        The census has a broad definition of urban, which is why I also linked the Bloomberg article that is a more articulate piece on what we should define as urban. Even using that, more than 60% of Americans live in urban environments. The question is about convenience. Cars and parking, parking lots, moving through them, being stuck behind one or two cars traveling into and out of a parking lot. Even if there is ample parking, you generally have to walk longer distances from that than you do when you bike. That is why biking can be more convenient than driving. It’s not that you have to search for parking for 30-40 minutes at both ends of you trip, it’s that driving has all sorts of annoyances, like random traffic from crashes, lots of waiting at signals, lots of waiting for others to get their cars out of the way in parking lots. That’s always been my experience driving, and that includes the very rural place where my parents live. When you travel into town for groceries, you still have to deal with moving a car through all of those situations. If I’m closer than 2 or 3 miles to where I’m going, my preference is definitely not driving, because overall it’s more annoying than biking.
  - otabdeveloper4 3y ago
    It's just the free market, dude. 20 years ago we didn't have cheaper and more efficient options. Now we do.
    - pfdietz 3y ago
      And by gum you're going to coerce people into buying them even if they don't want to!
  - Swizec 3y ago
    > People will happily trade off more energy consumption for personal convenience This must be why European cars are generally smaller than American cars. It has nothing to do with the lack of tax breaks on large vehicles, historically higher gas prices, and notoriously smaller parking spots. Nothing at all. Europeans just like smaller cars, right? And let’s not get into why half of Asia seems to ride around on tiny little 50cc vespas/scooters. I’m sure that’s just more comfortable there what with all the extremely hot weather and monsoon rains.
    - TeMPOraL 3y ago
      Most people in Europe are money-bound, not energy-bound, when choosing what car to buy.
      - Swizec 3y ago
        You use money to buy energy. Wouldn't matter that you're money-bound if gas was free. With gas (energy) not being free, people are voting with their wallet to say they would rather spend their limited funds on things other than energy. For example: Going bonkers crazy on insulation is a common thing to do in Europe. We had TV ads for triple-pane windows back in the 1990s in a country (Slovenia) where re-doing your windows costs an annual wage or more. Because over N years it comes out cheaper than paying for energy. Energy is so cheap in USA, at least in CA where I am, that even in 2024 seeing double-pane windows on a house is rare. Let alone triple or quadruple pane, which have become the norm back home.
        pfdietz 3y ago
        The US houses I've lived in for the last 30 years have had double paned windows. In 2017, 59% of homes in the US had double paned windows. https://dwmmag.com/survey-multi-pane-windows-now-on-59-percent-of-homes/ https://dwmmag.com/survey-multi-pane-windows-now-on-59-perce...
- concordDance 3y ago
  > It doesn't matter if cars are more comfortable. > Cars are a massive waste of energy and resources compared to other transport options we have now. Comfort is something we spend energy and resources on. This is a good thing. You could potentially argue its too much energy/resources but that's not a determination you can make, not having access to people's internal emotional states. Some people really like giant fuzzy toys, some like nothing more than flying and some like fancy VR. We should let people spend the energy/resources they earn on what gives them the most comfort/enjoyment or we'll be Typical Mind Fallacying our way to collective unhappiness. (The above assumes that the externalities of cars are correctly priced in in the form of car insurance, road tax, congestion charge and fuel duty)
detourdog 3y ago
I was struck on a visit to Tel Aviv how absolutely every economic class had a form of powered transportation. The low rung was the scooter/bicycle and the expense and convenience went up from there. The streets are absolutely clogged with every level of transportation and everyone was busy and going fast. Quite a contrast to rural New England but obviously the future. I see a college professor riding a one wheel about 2 miles from campus going up an incline that stretches for 2 miles. The road turns to dirt as it crosses state lines to Vermont. I dislike the ride on my bicycle. I stopped him once and I think he said he had 40 mile range!?
bluejekyll 3y ago
> Cars keep you much better protected from … traffic; I think you mean car traffic. Cars create most of the dangerous traffic conditions that exist in our cities and neighborhoods. While the GP’s post is idealistic, so many places are working to make non-car travel safer, it’s not hard to imagine a future where people choose more convenient modes of transportation as they feel safer doing so. Bikes as an example, tend to be easier to park, avoid most traffic issues (never really get stuck in traffic) and generally don’t have to look for parking at your destination. The only downside is their utility is generally mostly for local travel (last mile) of about 2 miles. My guess is that for people that live within 2 miles of their work, school, and other needs, you’ll start seeing most households drop to a single car, with electric bikes making up most of the utility needs. It’s hard to predict a timeline here, and is highly dependent on a communities attention to making roads safer for non-car users. But for communities that do make those safety improvements you see big upticks in bike usage for things like taking kids to school, daily food shopping, and travel to work.
- otabdeveloper4 3y ago
  Scooters, ebikes and other personal electric vehicles have a comfortable range of about 30 miles. (15 you want there and back again.)
  - bluejekyll 3y ago
    True, though based on the statistics around this most people tend to only bike about 5 miles. After that, it’s really only the folks committed to not driving at all.
- myrmidon 3y ago
  > I think you mean car traffic No; I mean that a car protects reliably in case of an accident. When on a bike, roller or on foot you are MUCH more likely to bleed or break bones. Bike-on-bike crashes can be fatal, even if there were zero cars or trucks around. Living within 2 miles of work for the majority sounds just improbable to me without falling back on short-term renting (maybe even then). Outside urban centers- impossible.

otabdeveloper4 3y ago

It doesn't matter if cars are more comfortable. Cars are a massive waste of energy and resources compared to other transport options we have now. Societis/cultures who ignore efficiency will be eventually forced to adapt against their will. It's just market economics. (E.g., you can be obstinate and waste a significant chunk of your income just for the perceived comfort of a car, but over a few generations these people will lose in economic competition to people who act rationally.)

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
pfdietz 3y ago
"People won't do something if it's not efficient" is quite a take. Demonstrably wrong, too. People will happily trade off more energy consumption for personal convenience. As PV goes down its experience curve, the cost of operating an electric vehicle will fall. As batteries go down their curves, the cost of the vehicles themselves will fall. This will naturally push the equilibrium tradeoff point to larger, more energy intensive vehicles.
- bluejekyll 3y ago
  As someone who’s adopting bikes for most of my utility needs, food shopping, dropping kids off at school, one thing I can’t agree with is that cars are more convenient. In general, I find cars to be far less convenient. They are annoying to park, often get stuck in traffic, and generally are just annoying large boxes that you need a lot of space to maneuver. Using a cargo bike for most of those needs on the other hand is far more convenient. Cars are definitely more comfortable, especially on rainy days. But even on rainy days, I often choose to ride (if it’s not a crazy storm) as it’s still more convenient.
  - nradov 3y ago
    Cars are only inconvenient in a few dense urban areas. In the places where most Americans live/work/shop/recreate there is plenty of free parking and traffic isn't too bad. Cargo bikes can be a great option, though.
    - bluejekyll 3y ago
      Most Americans live in urban or dense suburban environments: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-03-26/u-s-urban-population-is-up-but-what-does-urban-really-mean https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-03-26/u-s-urban... https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/urban-rural-populations.html https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/urban-ru...
      - nradov 3y ago
        You appear to have misunderstood the Census definitions. Most of what they label as "urban" or "suburban" is hardly dense by urban planning standards. The people living in those places mostly have a surplus of parking.
        bluejekyll 3y ago
        The census has a broad definition of urban, which is why I also linked the Bloomberg article that is a more articulate piece on what we should define as urban. Even using that, more than 60% of Americans live in urban environments. The question is about convenience. Cars and parking, parking lots, moving through them, being stuck behind one or two cars traveling into and out of a parking lot. Even if there is ample parking, you generally have to walk longer distances from that than you do when you bike. That is why biking can be more convenient than driving. It’s not that you have to search for parking for 30-40 minutes at both ends of you trip, it’s that driving has all sorts of annoyances, like random traffic from crashes, lots of waiting at signals, lots of waiting for others to get their cars out of the way in parking lots. That’s always been my experience driving, and that includes the very rural place where my parents live. When you travel into town for groceries, you still have to deal with moving a car through all of those situations. If I’m closer than 2 or 3 miles to where I’m going, my preference is definitely not driving, because overall it’s more annoying than biking.
- otabdeveloper4 3y ago
  It's just the free market, dude. 20 years ago we didn't have cheaper and more efficient options. Now we do.
  - pfdietz 3y ago
    And by gum you're going to coerce people into buying them even if they don't want to!
- Swizec 3y ago
  > People will happily trade off more energy consumption for personal convenience This must be why European cars are generally smaller than American cars. It has nothing to do with the lack of tax breaks on large vehicles, historically higher gas prices, and notoriously smaller parking spots. Nothing at all. Europeans just like smaller cars, right? And let’s not get into why half of Asia seems to ride around on tiny little 50cc vespas/scooters. I’m sure that’s just more comfortable there what with all the extremely hot weather and monsoon rains.
  - TeMPOraL 3y ago
    Most people in Europe are money-bound, not energy-bound, when choosing what car to buy.
    - Swizec 3y ago
      You use money to buy energy. Wouldn't matter that you're money-bound if gas was free. With gas (energy) not being free, people are voting with their wallet to say they would rather spend their limited funds on things other than energy. For example: Going bonkers crazy on insulation is a common thing to do in Europe. We had TV ads for triple-pane windows back in the 1990s in a country (Slovenia) where re-doing your windows costs an annual wage or more. Because over N years it comes out cheaper than paying for energy. Energy is so cheap in USA, at least in CA where I am, that even in 2024 seeing double-pane windows on a house is rare. Let alone triple or quadruple pane, which have become the norm back home.
      - pfdietz 3y ago
        The US houses I've lived in for the last 30 years have had double paned windows. In 2017, 59% of homes in the US had double paned windows. https://dwmmag.com/survey-multi-pane-windows-now-on-59-percent-of-homes/ https://dwmmag.com/survey-multi-pane-windows-now-on-59-perce...
concordDance 3y ago
> It doesn't matter if cars are more comfortable. > Cars are a massive waste of energy and resources compared to other transport options we have now. Comfort is something we spend energy and resources on. This is a good thing. You could potentially argue its too much energy/resources but that's not a determination you can make, not having access to people's internal emotional states. Some people really like giant fuzzy toys, some like nothing more than flying and some like fancy VR. We should let people spend the energy/resources they earn on what gives them the most comfort/enjoyment or we'll be Typical Mind Fallacying our way to collective unhappiness. (The above assumes that the externalities of cars are correctly priced in in the form of car insurance, road tax, congestion charge and fuel duty)

detourdog 3y ago

I was struck on a visit to Tel Aviv how absolutely every economic class had a form of powered transportation. The low rung was the scooter/bicycle and the expense and convenience went up from there. The streets are absolutely clogged with every level of transportation and everyone was busy and going fast. Quite a contrast to rural New England but obviously the future. I see a college professor riding a one wheel about 2 miles from campus going up an incline that stretches for 2 miles. The road turns to dirt as it crosses state lines to Vermont. I dislike the ride on my bicycle. I stopped him once and I think he said he had 40 mile range!?

bluejekyll 3y ago

> Cars keep you much better protected from … traffic; I think you mean car traffic. Cars create most of the dangerous traffic conditions that exist in our cities and neighborhoods. While the GP’s post is idealistic, so many places are working to make non-car travel safer, it’s not hard to imagine a future where people choose more convenient modes of transportation as they feel safer doing so. Bikes as an example, tend to be easier to park, avoid most traffic issues (never really get stuck in traffic) and generally don’t have to look for parking at your destination. The only downside is their utility is generally mostly for local travel (last mile) of about 2 miles. My guess is that for people that live within 2 miles of their work, school, and other needs, you’ll start seeing most households drop to a single car, with electric bikes making up most of the utility needs. It’s hard to predict a timeline here, and is highly dependent on a communities attention to making roads safer for non-car users. But for communities that do make those safety improvements you see big upticks in bike usage for things like taking kids to school, daily food shopping, and travel to work.

otabdeveloper4 3y ago
Scooters, ebikes and other personal electric vehicles have a comfortable range of about 30 miles. (15 you want there and back again.)
- bluejekyll 3y ago
  True, though based on the statistics around this most people tend to only bike about 5 miles. After that, it’s really only the folks committed to not driving at all.
myrmidon 3y ago
> I think you mean car traffic No; I mean that a car protects reliably in case of an accident. When on a bike, roller or on foot you are MUCH more likely to bleed or break bones. Bike-on-bike crashes can be fatal, even if there were zero cars or trucks around. Living within 2 miles of work for the majority sounds just improbable to me without falling back on short-term renting (maybe even then). Outside urban centers- impossible.