4 ms·
I can't read the original article, but presumably it treads the same ground as similar articles [1], which in turn generally reference [2]. Past articles talkin
by andrewla 3y ago
I can't read the original article, but presumably it treads the same ground as similar articles [1], which in turn generally reference [2]. Past articles talking about screening include [3].
Generally supports the view that early screening and detection are largely responsible
> Archie Bleyer, a clinical research professor at the Knight Cancer Institute of the Oregon Health & Science University, says the surge in cases of thyroid cancer, as well as kidney cancer, is at least partly a result of “overdiagnosis” due to increased screenings, both for cancer and for other health concerns. The screenings have detected tumors and masses in those organs that “look like cancer, so they’ve got to call it carcinoma,” he explains. But they “would never have been a problem if they were never picked up,” because they typically wouldn’t spread or progress.
I think this is rapidly becoming the consensus view, but the subject is complicated. In the long term, these early detections might lead us to the point where they can become more accurate, and we are better able to distinguish between tumors and masses that would progress and those that would not, but I'm not personally very optimistic; there are two many variables -- the same imaging between multiple facets of environment/genetics/diet/metabolism/chance might have wildly different outcomes.
[1] https://thehill.com/curing-cancer/4041032-cancer-rates-are-climbing-among-young-people-its-not-clear-why/ https://thehill.com/curing-cancer/4041032-cancer-rates-are-c...
[2] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41571-022-00672-8 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41571-022-00672-8
[3] https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/essays/41620/the-dark-side-of-early-diagnosis https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/essays/41620/the-dark-sid...
- timr 3y agoIt's a longstanding debate in cancer medicine -- google "turtles, rabbits and birds". What is not a debate is that increased screening inevitably leads to false-positives. It's a mathematical certainty. But yes, you hope that you find more rabbits than turtles.
- andrewla 3y agoYes! That's exactly it. I've seen that metaphor before and forgot where I saw it until I searched around for what ended up being a previous comment of yours [1]. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37463187 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37463187
- a_gnostic 3y agoThe past three years confirm this hypothesis.