4 ms·
Your argument contains a pretty serious logic flaw. You are taking the top line argument (100 traders 33% beat the market, congress consistently beats the mark
by kasey_junk 3y ago
Your argument contains a pretty serious logic flaw. You are taking the top line argument (100 traders 33% beat the market, congress consistently beats the market, thus its indicative of an information advantage). But look at the underlying data. There are very few congress people that beat the market in 2023 and in 2022. I counted 5 members who beat the S&P in both years. Of those 3 have no trades, so were just marking existing positions that happened to be better than the market including the previously mentioned NVDIA stock. A 4th has 1 trade total. The final one is Ron Blumenthal. He is an active trader but also one of the richest men in politics. He made his money the old fashioned way, he married rich.
Every other congress person would have been better off in an index fund as expected. Its easy to write dramatic headlines about Congress people trading, and there are very good reasons that they shouldn't (it influencing their votes is top of that) but there is very little evidence of any significant information advantage in the trading positions or returns of congress people.