5 ms·

The dominance of the Big 7/Big tech is concerning (and maybe be driven primarily by passive index flows) but what has that to do with AI? In this list, just top

by npalli 3y ago

The dominance of the Big 7/Big tech is concerning (and maybe be driven primarily by passive index flows) but what has that to do with AI? In this list, just top of my head nVIDIA - clearly riding the AI wave Alphabet/Google - supposedly a mortal risk to their current model (search) so negative for them Microsoft - Depending on the drama of the week with OpenAI, either the biggest beneficiary or biggest loser Apple - supposedly not a player but again maybe will do something on-device and leapfrog everyone Tesla - Depends on the moods of Musk that week and what he blurts out with Cathie Wood Amazon/Meta - not clear

lou1306 3y ago
> nVIDIA - clearly riding the AI wave More like "the ones selling shovels during the Gold Rush", in my opinion.
- anjel 3y ago
  ...If the shovels had been made of 24 carat gold, perhaps.
1oooqooq 3y ago
AI bubble only exist because search sucks. Remove the novelty of chat, and it is nothing but a filter on bad search results. Google will hopefully reinvent search for post-AI. IF AI is search, AI is indexing. and they are good at it. All the others are using stale data, which won't cut it besides lame limited assistants for specific use cases. but yeah, more likely they won't do anything good in the end.
- 6510 3y ago
  I've been thinking that for a while. What I also thought interesting is the limited vocabulary we use for writing code. There are obvious huge benefits if others are suppose to be able to read your code but there are also different approaches to accomplish the same thing which are not very readable if you are used to the other approach. (implementations but also different languages) If we appreciate how hard it is to explain some technical goals (in human languages) it doesn't seem a stretch of the imagination to have an almost human programming language that is supper easy to access for untrained "programmers". Then there are a good number of occupations that require so much memory that even the best of humans are a poor fit. I cant wait for a help desk "employee" who answers the phone immediately, knows who I am, is familiar with all my previous interactions with the company, is able to guess why I would be calling and is allowed to make decisions. It seems much better than having 100 employees who know very little trying very hard to deal with 300 calls with poor results while it costs $1500 per hour * 90 hours per week (135 000)
  - 1oooqooq 3y ago
    not sure what you are smoking :) but you started with the divide between system programmer and business logic programmer... and ended up with some thoughts about access to information. Most call center already knows everything just by the phone number you call in. they just dont' tell you or want/can act on what they need.
    - 6510 3y ago
      I'm pretty sure there is more to it than just search. The topic reminds me of early computers. People could imagine games and some niche company archives. The idea that it would touch everything didn't sound very likely to most.
unbelonger 3y ago
Nvidia is clearly riding the AI wave, but on the expectation that the demand for compute will keep increasing. As for Tesla, I thought the general consensus was that they are behind cruise, who are far behind Waymo on self-driving?
- thiago_fm 3y ago
  Waymo has self-driving ready and is operating in a few cities. It's a decade ahead of Tesla or Cruise (which just had some drama with their permits to operate because their software is crap.) We are in a world where self-driving is already a reality. It's just missing the scale aspect.
- whiplash451 3y ago
  Where does the Tesla << Cruise come from? Tesla has the data moat, Cruise doesn't.
  - thiago_fm 3y ago
    The data from Tesla at present value is of lower value, as with our current hardware/software/AI knowledge, they can't clearly meaningful use of it to drive a car in complex traffic scenarios. Meanwhile Cruise use lidars which simplify a lot, because Lidars give out better data. It's still crap compared to Waymo, which can actually drive a car very well. Waymo has already won this battle. Ride a Tesla using FSD, Cruise and then Waymo, I'm sure you'll be surprised by how good Waymo is. Tesla's Data faces a similar situation to training a LLM with data from the internet, it will be utter garbage. But if you use less data, but good data + RLHF, you get better results.
hatenberg 3y ago
All Nvidia is doing is doing is unlocking a different growth curve. Huang’s Law vs Intel’s leisurely Moore’s law. They finally found a case where this matters and that’s all that mattered, it’s gonna saturate them for years to come.
ilovetux 3y ago
This is a somewhat cynical take for the last two on your list. Amazon: - currently hosting AI/ML generated reviews submitted by users of the site[0] - Using AI-generated review summaries (search for "AI-generated from the text of customer reviews" on any product page) Meta: - Currently funneling AI generated propaganda to their users - Attempting to help funnel AI generated propaganda for their users [1] - Attempting to help funnel AI generated propaganda for their customers [2] [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/25/amazon-reviews-are-being-written-by-ai-chatbots.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/25/amazon-reviews-are-being-wri... [1] https://about.fb.com/news/2023/09/introducing-ai-powered-assistants-characters-and-creative-tools/ https://about.fb.com/news/2023/09/introducing-ai-powered-ass... [2] https://www.facebook.com/business/news/generative-ai-features-for-ads-coming-to-all-advertisers https://www.facebook.com/business/news/generative-ai-feature...
rlupi 3y ago
IMHO Apple should be able to launch the Vision Pro with functionality/apps to describe some 3d scene in words or pictures/gestures and render it on the fly. https://eckertzhang.github.io/Text2NeRF.github.io/ https://eckertzhang.github.io/Text2NeRF.github.io/ + 3d gaussian splatting + time-varying flow on spats (for which transformers would be quite apt, to ground changes based on prompt) is my bet how they could do it.

by npalli 3y ago

lou1306 3y ago

> nVIDIA - clearly riding the AI wave More like "the ones selling shovels during the Gold Rush", in my opinion.

anjel 3y ago
...If the shovels had been made of 24 carat gold, perhaps.

1oooqooq 3y ago

AI bubble only exist because search sucks. Remove the novelty of chat, and it is nothing but a filter on bad search results. Google will hopefully reinvent search for post-AI. IF AI is search, AI is indexing. and they are good at it. All the others are using stale data, which won't cut it besides lame limited assistants for specific use cases. but yeah, more likely they won't do anything good in the end.

6510 3y ago
I've been thinking that for a while. What I also thought interesting is the limited vocabulary we use for writing code. There are obvious huge benefits if others are suppose to be able to read your code but there are also different approaches to accomplish the same thing which are not very readable if you are used to the other approach. (implementations but also different languages) If we appreciate how hard it is to explain some technical goals (in human languages) it doesn't seem a stretch of the imagination to have an almost human programming language that is supper easy to access for untrained "programmers". Then there are a good number of occupations that require so much memory that even the best of humans are a poor fit. I cant wait for a help desk "employee" who answers the phone immediately, knows who I am, is familiar with all my previous interactions with the company, is able to guess why I would be calling and is allowed to make decisions. It seems much better than having 100 employees who know very little trying very hard to deal with 300 calls with poor results while it costs $1500 per hour * 90 hours per week (135 000)
- 1oooqooq 3y ago
  not sure what you are smoking :) but you started with the divide between system programmer and business logic programmer... and ended up with some thoughts about access to information. Most call center already knows everything just by the phone number you call in. they just dont' tell you or want/can act on what they need.
  - 6510 3y ago
    I'm pretty sure there is more to it than just search. The topic reminds me of early computers. People could imagine games and some niche company archives. The idea that it would touch everything didn't sound very likely to most.

unbelonger 3y ago

Nvidia is clearly riding the AI wave, but on the expectation that the demand for compute will keep increasing. As for Tesla, I thought the general consensus was that they are behind cruise, who are far behind Waymo on self-driving?

thiago_fm 3y ago
Waymo has self-driving ready and is operating in a few cities. It's a decade ahead of Tesla or Cruise (which just had some drama with their permits to operate because their software is crap.) We are in a world where self-driving is already a reality. It's just missing the scale aspect.
whiplash451 3y ago
Where does the Tesla << Cruise come from? Tesla has the data moat, Cruise doesn't.
- thiago_fm 3y ago
  The data from Tesla at present value is of lower value, as with our current hardware/software/AI knowledge, they can't clearly meaningful use of it to drive a car in complex traffic scenarios. Meanwhile Cruise use lidars which simplify a lot, because Lidars give out better data. It's still crap compared to Waymo, which can actually drive a car very well. Waymo has already won this battle. Ride a Tesla using FSD, Cruise and then Waymo, I'm sure you'll be surprised by how good Waymo is. Tesla's Data faces a similar situation to training a LLM with data from the internet, it will be utter garbage. But if you use less data, but good data + RLHF, you get better results.

hatenberg 3y ago

All Nvidia is doing is doing is unlocking a different growth curve. Huang’s Law vs Intel’s leisurely Moore’s law. They finally found a case where this matters and that’s all that mattered, it’s gonna saturate them for years to come.

ilovetux 3y ago

This is a somewhat cynical take for the last two on your list. Amazon: - currently hosting AI/ML generated reviews submitted by users of the site[0] - Using AI-generated review summaries (search for "AI-generated from the text of customer reviews" on any product page) Meta: - Currently funneling AI generated propaganda to their users - Attempting to help funnel AI generated propaganda for their users [1] - Attempting to help funnel AI generated propaganda for their customers [2] [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/25/amazon-reviews-are-being-written-by-ai-chatbots.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/25/amazon-reviews-are-being-wri... [1] https://about.fb.com/news/2023/09/introducing-ai-powered-assistants-characters-and-creative-tools/ https://about.fb.com/news/2023/09/introducing-ai-powered-ass... [2] https://www.facebook.com/business/news/generative-ai-features-for-ads-coming-to-all-advertisers https://www.facebook.com/business/news/generative-ai-feature...

rlupi 3y ago

IMHO Apple should be able to launch the Vision Pro with functionality/apps to describe some 3d scene in words or pictures/gestures and render it on the fly. https://eckertzhang.github.io/Text2NeRF.github.io/ https://eckertzhang.github.io/Text2NeRF.github.io/ + 3d gaussian splatting + time-varying flow on spats (for which transformers would be quite apt, to ground changes based on prompt) is my bet how they could do it.