> imagine having to throw a quarter out of the window, hoping for it to land within the proper 1 inch section of the road This idea also helps to illustrate so

> imagine having to throw a quarter out of the window, hoping for it to land within the proper 1 inch section of the road This idea also helps to illustrate something which is intuitive to me but seemingly hard to explain. Sometimes when an event occurs people will exclaim, "Wow, what are the odds of that?!" and then if it turns out to be a seemingly unlikely event, then it becomes "wow, it's crazy that happened!". But it's really not. Using the pull-quote as an example, it's the difference between 1) throwing the quarter out the window and drawing a circle around where it lands and 2) drawing a circle on the ground, hoping to land the quarter in it when it's thrown. Of course the exact result in the first case was unlikely but nobody predicted it so it's uninteresting.