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The unemployment metric has flawed and inherent attrition and does not reflect the actual number of unemployed. That’s why it works so well as a vanity metric -

by dzink 3y ago

The unemployment metric has flawed and inherent attrition and does not reflect the actual number of unemployed. That’s why it works so well as a vanity metric - it has gravity pulling the numbers down.

throwaway5959 3y ago
[flagged]
- Baeocystin 3y ago
  Not the person you were replying to, but I'll take one for the team and admit that I don't. If you had a link you could share explaining such, I would genuinely appreciate it.
  - mooreds 3y ago
    Here's a good link: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm My understanding is that u3 is what is typically reported, but that u6 is a more full picture (it includes people who are working age but discouraged and withdrawn from the workforce).
  - ksherlock 3y ago
    Let's say the economy is your Github repo. And unemployment is open issues. But there are too many open issues so you set up a bot to automatically close stale issues. So if you ignore something long enough, it goes away. Nice. U3 (the official unemployment rate) excludes people who have been unemployed too long, that is "stale" or "discouraged workers".
- postpawl 3y ago
  If the Department of Labor report the article is referring to is the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly Employment Situation Summary, then unemployed doesn’t include gig workers (and it probably should).
- MathMonkeyMan 3y ago
  What are the different unemployment rates, and how do they work? Are you referring to [this][1]? If so, which notion(s) of unemployment do you think are meant in the article? [1]: https://www.bls.gov/cps/definitions.htm https://www.bls.gov/cps/definitions.htm
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
ren_engineer 3y ago
and if you look at the industries where jobs were added in December 90% of them were directly or indirectly tied to government deficit spending. If/when the government is forced to cut spending you are going to see a lot of job losses if the economy was good we wouldn't have people doing early 401K withdrawals at record rates, record car repo rates, and record credit card debt. I'm just tired of the apologists who apparently live in a bubble or are outright lying for other reasons https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/economy/401k-hardship-withdrawals/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/economy/401k-hardship-withdra... https://www.gao.gov/blog/american-credit-card-debt-hits-new-record-whats-changed-post-pandemic https://www.gao.gov/blog/american-credit-card-debt-hits-new-... https://www.pymnts.com/loans/2023/auto-loan-delinquency-rates-reach-highest-level-since-1994/ https://www.pymnts.com/loans/2023/auto-loan-delinquency-rate...
- creer 3y ago
  The same article claims car repossession rate is still below pre-covid.
  - fakedang 3y ago
    And we know from other data posted on this site that car sales are falling. Which likely means that mostly relatively well-off people who are less likely to default are buying cars.
- lumost 3y ago
  Folks have been Pointing out issues with US economic metrics for some time. Core inflation only works if you don’t buy food or pay market rate housing. On its face, the Fed logic makes sense - most people do not pay market rates for housing in the short term. In the long term, everyone pays market rate.
  - orop8jrj 3y ago
    It’s almost like all symbolic logics are leaky abstractions and economics abstraction is being leveraged to leak undesirables in deference to decree of the fiat rich, whose skill is “been alive longer, was born into post world war economy.” The luck is in being alive this long. Doesn’t say anything about their fitness to steer society via socialized memes there’s a communal upside to capitalism. Sounds pretty socialist. “It’s good your agency is expropriated and your value deflated for the cause!”
ycdxvjp 3y ago
It works so well cause US has had low interest rates for decades. You have to plot unemployment against credit growth and interest rates. Hiring people with easy cheap money is not complicated. You don't need to spend your profits on people. Push profits into real estate/stocks/bonds etc. Inflate prices of all them then use them as collateral to take on more cheap debt and keep your plebs employed running on mindless hamster wheels.
anigbrowl 3y ago
Perhaps a valid assertion, but not as stated. This isn't Twitter, you have room to flesh out assertions with arguments.
bigmattystyles 3y ago
As long as the definition used is consistent, it’s fine as one indicator, but I won’t argue with you that it’s not the full picture. Not many know why 4% is considered full employment or how many people that really means.
bryanlarsen 3y ago
Even if you consider U6 to be the "real" unemployment rate, at 7% it's also very good, well under the historical average of 10.2%.
pxeboot 3y ago
> The unemployment metric has flawed and inherent attrition and does not reflect the actual number of unemployed Who should be included? College students? Stay at home moms? People who retired early? This is not an easy thing to calculate, and will always include or exclude some group(s) that could be working.
- lotsofpulp 3y ago
  That is why the government offers 6 different unemployment measures, plus the labor force participation rate.

by dzink 3y ago

throwaway5959 3y ago

[flagged]

Baeocystin 3y ago
Not the person you were replying to, but I'll take one for the team and admit that I don't. If you had a link you could share explaining such, I would genuinely appreciate it.
- mooreds 3y ago
  Here's a good link: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm My understanding is that u3 is what is typically reported, but that u6 is a more full picture (it includes people who are working age but discouraged and withdrawn from the workforce).
- ksherlock 3y ago
  Let's say the economy is your Github repo. And unemployment is open issues. But there are too many open issues so you set up a bot to automatically close stale issues. So if you ignore something long enough, it goes away. Nice. U3 (the official unemployment rate) excludes people who have been unemployed too long, that is "stale" or "discouraged workers".
postpawl 3y ago
If the Department of Labor report the article is referring to is the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly Employment Situation Summary, then unemployed doesn’t include gig workers (and it probably should).
MathMonkeyMan 3y ago
What are the different unemployment rates, and how do they work? Are you referring to [this][1]? If so, which notion(s) of unemployment do you think are meant in the article? [1]: https://www.bls.gov/cps/definitions.htm https://www.bls.gov/cps/definitions.htm
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

ren_engineer 3y ago

and if you look at the industries where jobs were added in December 90% of them were directly or indirectly tied to government deficit spending. If/when the government is forced to cut spending you are going to see a lot of job losses if the economy was good we wouldn't have people doing early 401K withdrawals at record rates, record car repo rates, and record credit card debt. I'm just tired of the apologists who apparently live in a bubble or are outright lying for other reasons https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/economy/401k-hardship-withdrawals/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/economy/401k-hardship-withdra... https://www.gao.gov/blog/american-credit-card-debt-hits-new-record-whats-changed-post-pandemic https://www.gao.gov/blog/american-credit-card-debt-hits-new-... https://www.pymnts.com/loans/2023/auto-loan-delinquency-rates-reach-highest-level-since-1994/ https://www.pymnts.com/loans/2023/auto-loan-delinquency-rate...

creer 3y ago
The same article claims car repossession rate is still below pre-covid.
- fakedang 3y ago
  And we know from other data posted on this site that car sales are falling. Which likely means that mostly relatively well-off people who are less likely to default are buying cars.
lumost 3y ago
Folks have been Pointing out issues with US economic metrics for some time. Core inflation only works if you don’t buy food or pay market rate housing. On its face, the Fed logic makes sense - most people do not pay market rates for housing in the short term. In the long term, everyone pays market rate.
- orop8jrj 3y ago
  It’s almost like all symbolic logics are leaky abstractions and economics abstraction is being leveraged to leak undesirables in deference to decree of the fiat rich, whose skill is “been alive longer, was born into post world war economy.” The luck is in being alive this long. Doesn’t say anything about their fitness to steer society via socialized memes there’s a communal upside to capitalism. Sounds pretty socialist. “It’s good your agency is expropriated and your value deflated for the cause!”

ycdxvjp 3y ago

It works so well cause US has had low interest rates for decades. You have to plot unemployment against credit growth and interest rates. Hiring people with easy cheap money is not complicated. You don't need to spend your profits on people. Push profits into real estate/stocks/bonds etc. Inflate prices of all them then use them as collateral to take on more cheap debt and keep your plebs employed running on mindless hamster wheels.

anigbrowl 3y ago

Perhaps a valid assertion, but not as stated. This isn't Twitter, you have room to flesh out assertions with arguments.

bigmattystyles 3y ago

As long as the definition used is consistent, it’s fine as one indicator, but I won’t argue with you that it’s not the full picture. Not many know why 4% is considered full employment or how many people that really means.

bryanlarsen 3y ago

Even if you consider U6 to be the "real" unemployment rate, at 7% it's also very good, well under the historical average of 10.2%.

pxeboot 3y ago

> The unemployment metric has flawed and inherent attrition and does not reflect the actual number of unemployed Who should be included? College students? Stay at home moms? People who retired early? This is not an easy thing to calculate, and will always include or exclude some group(s) that could be working.

lotsofpulp 3y ago
That is why the government offers 6 different unemployment measures, plus the labor force participation rate.