3 ms·
Does this shed any more light on whether it's valid for the author to name 2008 as a flash crisis? The taleb comparison survives on the idea that talebs thesis
by refulgentis 3y ago
Does this shed any more light on whether it's valid for the author to name 2008 as a flash crisis?
The taleb comparison survives on the idea that talebs thesis (long tail events are underestimated) is the same as negative long tail events happen quickly. So I don't think that sheds much light.
On the financial side, those look like two arbitrarily long term periods where you couldn't 100x in O(weeks) by a long tail bet on the negative side - but alas, arbitrary. ex. stonks traded sideways in 2021 but I made an absolute fantastic amount of money in about 3 weeks in Feb/March 2020, as an accident, buying puts to poke fun at this new silly mistaken trend of thinking options were for retail investors (ah, I was so young and innocent)