4 ms·

Renting out scooters/bikes just seems like a very low-margin business. There's just not enough money in there for the US techies level of grift they are accust

Renting out scooters/bikes just seems like a very low-margin business. There's just not enough money in there for the US techies level of grift they are accustomed to in working for near-monopoly behemoths like Apple/Google. Especially in a non-zero interest rate environment, putting money into these companies is essentially financing the upper-middle-class lifestyle of tech workers. The only way this appeals to you as an investor is if you think you can sell this kind of business to a company like Softbank, while somehow hand-waving the huge inevitable losses.

koliber 3y ago
Hindsight makes this easy to appreciate. Looking at it from the perspective of when these mobility companies started, there was a chance it could have worked.
- gp 3y ago
  Plenty of people believed it would fail from the beginning - are they prescient or just lucky?
  - addicted 3y ago
    Every new technology and company has plenty of people believing it will fail from the beginning. And they will almost always be right because most companies fail. Identifiying companies that will fail is not hard. Identifying those that will succeed on the other hand is very hard.
- smt88 3y ago
  I live in a typical US city with rain, four seasons, and lots of cars. No one in my city thought this business model would work. The only reason it raised so much money is because VCs are idiots who don't understand how society works outside of California.
  - dottedmag 3y ago
    Should all companies expand to the whole globe? There are plenty of well-off places with mild climate where using a scooter all year around is feasible.
    - solarkraft 3y ago
      No - and renting out scooters is a model that can totally work. But do micro mobility companies have the scaling potential/dynamic of a Google or Facebook (which would justify the way they raise money)?
      - palemoonale 3y ago
        What's this thing with prefixing 'micro'? Either you provide mobility, or you don't. Same with services.
        DFHippie 3y ago
        Speaking only for "micro mobility", it seems useful to distinguish allowing someone to travel within a city from between cities from between continents. Sure, it's mobility, but there are different kinds or degrees of mobility.
        kjellsbells 3y ago
        Agree, it seems to assume that the unit of mobility is something larger, like a car. When the fundamental unit of human mobility is just that, a human, since they are inherently mobile. We would do better to describe cars as macro mobility than scooters and bikes as micro. Pipe dream, I know.
    - PaulHoule 3y ago
      A friend of mine pointed out that almost all (upward of 90%) of the world’s population lives in a milder climate than Upstate NY.
  - otabdeveloper4 3y ago
spaceman_2020 3y ago
I also think most of these businesses are over engineered. These aren’t really tech businesses. Tech is just a conduit. You really don’t need that many engineers and data scientists and UX designers for a rental service. The problem with these businesses is that they raise money as “tech businesses”, which gets them much higher valuations, but also makes them spend way more on engineers to justify that “tech” tag.
- rchaud 3y ago
  Yeah but if you don't call it a tech business, you cannot attract VC funding nor handwave away massive losses as the cost of growth.
- EdwardDiego 3y ago
  I watched a presentation from Bird where they talked about their software infrastructure. They were very proud of some patterns that I found a bit ridiculous, not to mention expensive.
asah 3y ago
The margins are set by willingness to pay (value), direct and indirect competition. The value was fine but competition forced margins negative. Direct competition because there's no barrier to entry and little locking/loyalty. Indirect competition from ebikes, public transit, and purchasing scooters.
rchaud 3y ago
> Renting out scooters/bikes just seems like a very low-margin business As are food delivery and taxi services, but VCs and sovereign wealth funds have sunk untold billions into them. Usually the pitch has some pipe dream angle like "self-driving robotaxis" that makes it sound more visionary than it is. I have no idea what Bird's equivalent was supposed to be.

koliber 3y ago

Hindsight makes this easy to appreciate. Looking at it from the perspective of when these mobility companies started, there was a chance it could have worked.

gp 3y ago
Plenty of people believed it would fail from the beginning - are they prescient or just lucky?
- addicted 3y ago
  Every new technology and company has plenty of people believing it will fail from the beginning. And they will almost always be right because most companies fail. Identifiying companies that will fail is not hard. Identifying those that will succeed on the other hand is very hard.
smt88 3y ago
I live in a typical US city with rain, four seasons, and lots of cars. No one in my city thought this business model would work. The only reason it raised so much money is because VCs are idiots who don't understand how society works outside of California.
- dottedmag 3y ago
  Should all companies expand to the whole globe? There are plenty of well-off places with mild climate where using a scooter all year around is feasible.
  - solarkraft 3y ago
    No - and renting out scooters is a model that can totally work. But do micro mobility companies have the scaling potential/dynamic of a Google or Facebook (which would justify the way they raise money)?
    - palemoonale 3y ago
      What's this thing with prefixing 'micro'? Either you provide mobility, or you don't. Same with services.
      - DFHippie 3y ago
        Speaking only for "micro mobility", it seems useful to distinguish allowing someone to travel within a city from between cities from between continents. Sure, it's mobility, but there are different kinds or degrees of mobility.
      - kjellsbells 3y ago
        Agree, it seems to assume that the unit of mobility is something larger, like a car. When the fundamental unit of human mobility is just that, a human, since they are inherently mobile. We would do better to describe cars as macro mobility than scooters and bikes as micro. Pipe dream, I know.
  - PaulHoule 3y ago
    A friend of mine pointed out that almost all (upward of 90%) of the world’s population lives in a milder climate than Upstate NY.
- otabdeveloper4 3y ago

spaceman_2020 3y ago

I also think most of these businesses are over engineered. These aren’t really tech businesses. Tech is just a conduit. You really don’t need that many engineers and data scientists and UX designers for a rental service. The problem with these businesses is that they raise money as “tech businesses”, which gets them much higher valuations, but also makes them spend way more on engineers to justify that “tech” tag.

rchaud 3y ago
Yeah but if you don't call it a tech business, you cannot attract VC funding nor handwave away massive losses as the cost of growth.
EdwardDiego 3y ago
I watched a presentation from Bird where they talked about their software infrastructure. They were very proud of some patterns that I found a bit ridiculous, not to mention expensive.

asah 3y ago

The margins are set by willingness to pay (value), direct and indirect competition. The value was fine but competition forced margins negative. Direct competition because there's no barrier to entry and little locking/loyalty. Indirect competition from ebikes, public transit, and purchasing scooters.

rchaud 3y ago

> Renting out scooters/bikes just seems like a very low-margin business As are food delivery and taxi services, but VCs and sovereign wealth funds have sunk untold billions into them. Usually the pitch has some pipe dream angle like "self-driving robotaxis" that makes it sound more visionary than it is. I have no idea what Bird's equivalent was supposed to be.