5 ms·

EVs aren't cheap either, in 2 years one will get better battery tech and a new connector, plus whatever deprecation the battery will go through if you buy one t

by shmatt 3y ago

EVs aren't cheap either, in 2 years one will get better battery tech and a new connector, plus whatever deprecation the battery will go through if you buy one today. 2023-4 and earlier EVs will lose a huge chunk of their worth once NACS cars with better than 200 mile range become available The value of my leased Volvo C40 has already fallen off a cliff and is less than my residual value. Once my lease is over there will be an NACS EX-30 that will be cheaper brand new, than what Volvo are charging for me to keep my old connector used battery car

_ea1k 3y ago
Bolt starts at ~$26k. Civic starts at just under $24k. The Bolt is a mediocre road tripper, but lots of cars in that segment are just commuters that only very occasionally road trip. It'd be a great choice for a lot of people.
- shmatt 3y ago
  Bolt can't fast charge, at some point we need to look beyond the single family home consumer
  - blackguardx 3y ago
    My Bolt supports DC charging at 55 kW. What is considered “fast?”
    - xeromal 3y ago
      The OG Tesla chargers charged at 125kW but the standard ones now charge at 250kW and a select few newer cars charge at 350kW. 55kW sounds like it uses Chademo?
      - micromacrofoot 3y ago
        it uses CCS
      - bluGill 3y ago
        CCS, but the car itself is limited to 55kw. Most EVs can charge faster, the bolt is really slow.
    - bluGill 3y ago
      More than that. My brother has a bolt and is looking at a road trip next week - 3 hour+ charge cycles are required to make the trip. If it could be 3 20 minute charges he would be much happier. (6 10 minute charges would be better). Most of the time he is happy with that car - he rarely goes on trips so far that he needs to stop, and when he does he planned to take the ICE minivan, but this time his wife needs the minivan so he is stuck.
      - _ea1k 3y ago
        Yeah, I wouldn't really get one if I had to go >350 miles on anything but extraordinarily rare occasions. But I have owned cars that fit that usage model really well. I used to have a "second" car that was used as a commuter. It would only very rarely go on trips, and even then only up to ~300 miles. If it had been an EV, it would likely have been more like a primary car, but the gas car would have been the backup for long trips.
  - micromacrofoot 3y ago
    Bolt can absolutely fast charge, I've done it myself — the feature has to be added when purchasing, and it's limited to 55kW (~80% in an hour depending on conditions). The slower rate is partially how they kept the price down AFAIK.
    - _ea1k 3y ago
      Thankfully, DCFC is now standard! The rate isn't phenomenal, just as you pointed out, but this car competes with Civics. Many of those are purely commuter cars that might only very rarely do 300-400 miles. It is a great vehicle.
    - Sohcahtoa82 3y ago
      IMO, having such a slow charge rate (Yes, 55 kW is slow) is extremely detrimental to EV adoption because it feeds into the narrative that it takes 45+ minutes to charge the car which just simply isn't true for any decent EV. This is what frustrates me about EV makers that aren't Tesla. They frequently half-ass their EV and then get all Surprised Pikachu when they don't sell, and then they incorrectly just say "Huh people don't actually want EVs". I'm not trying to sound like a Tesla fanboy (I own one, but I'm not a fanboy), but the Model 3 is the standard upon which any EV is going to be compared. If you don't support 250 kW charging with at least 250 miles of range, you're making a shitty EV that nobody will want. Sure, you can probably forgo the self-driving features, and the huge touch-screen interface is a bug more than a feature, but you cannot skimp on range and charging capabilities.
      - _ea1k 3y ago
        Yeah, I remember when Chevrolet bragged a lot about beating the Model 3 to market and how great it was. But it had optional fast charging of only ~50kw! Their management really could not understand the idea that the prime consumer for this would be middle-class people in suburban homes, and that they'd want to occasionally road trip their nearly $40k EV. They'd imagine only people in urban areas would want them and then imagine this huge catch-22 around urban charging. Their early forays into charging partnerships all reflected that, with chatter about building lower speed urban locations. Reality was so much different. Having said that, prices have come down a _lot_ since that introduction. I think there are a lot of people who'd find it usable, given prices that are lower than a Civic with the current incentives.
  - _ea1k 3y ago
    Sure, but we don't have to look past them to get to 50% market share. The market can grow by 5x without moving past them. The problem in the US is that you have to have really large market share to start convincing property owners that they should install chargers. Thankfully, we are seeing this, with widespread installations at hotels this year. I'm guessing apartments won't be too far behind that in metropolitan areas.
- everdrive 3y ago
  I don't want a $26k car. Back in 2014, I bought a base model Ford Fiesta for $14k. Modern cars are badly overpriced, which is part of why people are holding onto used cars so strongly.
  - mikrotikker 3y ago
    Not to mention the environmental impact of buying new.
- GrinningFool 3y ago
  Looks like it starts at 28.5. Low-end IC cars (with more range and convenience) start at ~15-16k new in the US. (Kia, Nissan, etc). That's a huge difference when that's the price range you're shopping, with added benefits of higher issue rates and less convenience when it comes to charging.
  - _ea1k 3y ago
    For a lot of commuters, the EV will be more convenient. Getting out of the car during the commute home (or worse, the commute to work) was never fun.
  - pr0zac 3y ago
    While I'd argue anyone looking to spend under $20k on a car would be better suited going used/pre-owned instead of new, theres really not a price premium on new electric vehicles anymore. The Chevy Bolt MSRP is $26,500[1] (not sure where you saw 28.5) but it qualifies for the $7500 rebate. In the past that was a tax write-off and you still had to pay sticker up front but it changed this year to be a credit the IRS gives the dealer at time of purchase so the price gets immediately knocked down to $19k.[2] Requires the purchaser be under the new income cap to qualify but that includes over 90% of people. Theres only two new cars available in 2024 under $19k, the Nissan Versa and Mitsubishi Mirage. If we look at 2023 theres also the Kia Rio. All three are out of date cars with anemic engines (the Mirage literally makes 78hp) and 0-60 times of 10 seconds or more compared to 200hp and 6.8 seconds for the Bolt. None of the base models have Apple CarPlay or Android Auto unlike the Bolt. Same for safety features/creature comforts like lane assist and adaptive cruise control. Otherwise the next cheapest new car available is the '23 Kia Forte which is a pretty fun car (and can reach highway speed before the heat death of the universe) which is actually in a similar tier to the Bolt and similarly priced at $19.5k.[3] Theres definitely a lot of people who EVs don't work for logistically (myself included until only very recently), and yes you could buy one of three horrifying cars I would not force on my worst enemy for less, but manufacturers know they won't sell overpriced cars so the upfront cost of an EV aligns quite well nowadays with comparable ICE vehicles. 1. https://www.chevrolet.com/electric/bolt-ev https://www.chevrolet.com/electric/bolt-ev 2. https://www.kbb.com/car-news/with-tax-credit-as-down-payment-chevy-bolt-starts-under-20000/ https://www.kbb.com/car-news/with-tax-credit-as-down-payment... 3. https://www.carfax.com/blog/cheapest-cars https://www.carfax.com/blog/cheapest-cars
recursive 3y ago
> once NACS cars with better than 200 mile range What do you think current ranges are? There are very few EVs available with less than 200 miles of range. The Leaf and that Mazda thing are the only ones I know of.

by shmatt 3y ago

_ea1k 3y ago

Bolt starts at ~$26k. Civic starts at just under $24k. The Bolt is a mediocre road tripper, but lots of cars in that segment are just commuters that only very occasionally road trip. It'd be a great choice for a lot of people.

shmatt 3y ago
Bolt can't fast charge, at some point we need to look beyond the single family home consumer
- blackguardx 3y ago
  My Bolt supports DC charging at 55 kW. What is considered “fast?”
  - xeromal 3y ago
    The OG Tesla chargers charged at 125kW but the standard ones now charge at 250kW and a select few newer cars charge at 350kW. 55kW sounds like it uses Chademo?
    - micromacrofoot 3y ago
      it uses CCS
    - bluGill 3y ago
      CCS, but the car itself is limited to 55kw. Most EVs can charge faster, the bolt is really slow.
  - bluGill 3y ago
    More than that. My brother has a bolt and is looking at a road trip next week - 3 hour+ charge cycles are required to make the trip. If it could be 3 20 minute charges he would be much happier. (6 10 minute charges would be better). Most of the time he is happy with that car - he rarely goes on trips so far that he needs to stop, and when he does he planned to take the ICE minivan, but this time his wife needs the minivan so he is stuck.
    - _ea1k 3y ago
      Yeah, I wouldn't really get one if I had to go >350 miles on anything but extraordinarily rare occasions. But I have owned cars that fit that usage model really well. I used to have a "second" car that was used as a commuter. It would only very rarely go on trips, and even then only up to ~300 miles. If it had been an EV, it would likely have been more like a primary car, but the gas car would have been the backup for long trips.
- micromacrofoot 3y ago
  Bolt can absolutely fast charge, I've done it myself — the feature has to be added when purchasing, and it's limited to 55kW (~80% in an hour depending on conditions). The slower rate is partially how they kept the price down AFAIK.
  - _ea1k 3y ago
    Thankfully, DCFC is now standard! The rate isn't phenomenal, just as you pointed out, but this car competes with Civics. Many of those are purely commuter cars that might only very rarely do 300-400 miles. It is a great vehicle.
  - Sohcahtoa82 3y ago
    IMO, having such a slow charge rate (Yes, 55 kW is slow) is extremely detrimental to EV adoption because it feeds into the narrative that it takes 45+ minutes to charge the car which just simply isn't true for any decent EV. This is what frustrates me about EV makers that aren't Tesla. They frequently half-ass their EV and then get all Surprised Pikachu when they don't sell, and then they incorrectly just say "Huh people don't actually want EVs". I'm not trying to sound like a Tesla fanboy (I own one, but I'm not a fanboy), but the Model 3 is the standard upon which any EV is going to be compared. If you don't support 250 kW charging with at least 250 miles of range, you're making a shitty EV that nobody will want. Sure, you can probably forgo the self-driving features, and the huge touch-screen interface is a bug more than a feature, but you cannot skimp on range and charging capabilities.
    - _ea1k 3y ago
      Yeah, I remember when Chevrolet bragged a lot about beating the Model 3 to market and how great it was. But it had optional fast charging of only ~50kw! Their management really could not understand the idea that the prime consumer for this would be middle-class people in suburban homes, and that they'd want to occasionally road trip their nearly $40k EV. They'd imagine only people in urban areas would want them and then imagine this huge catch-22 around urban charging. Their early forays into charging partnerships all reflected that, with chatter about building lower speed urban locations. Reality was so much different. Having said that, prices have come down a _lot_ since that introduction. I think there are a lot of people who'd find it usable, given prices that are lower than a Civic with the current incentives.
- _ea1k 3y ago
  Sure, but we don't have to look past them to get to 50% market share. The market can grow by 5x without moving past them. The problem in the US is that you have to have really large market share to start convincing property owners that they should install chargers. Thankfully, we are seeing this, with widespread installations at hotels this year. I'm guessing apartments won't be too far behind that in metropolitan areas.
everdrive 3y ago
I don't want a $26k car. Back in 2014, I bought a base model Ford Fiesta for $14k. Modern cars are badly overpriced, which is part of why people are holding onto used cars so strongly.
- mikrotikker 3y ago
  Not to mention the environmental impact of buying new.
GrinningFool 3y ago
Looks like it starts at 28.5. Low-end IC cars (with more range and convenience) start at ~15-16k new in the US. (Kia, Nissan, etc). That's a huge difference when that's the price range you're shopping, with added benefits of higher issue rates and less convenience when it comes to charging.
- _ea1k 3y ago
  For a lot of commuters, the EV will be more convenient. Getting out of the car during the commute home (or worse, the commute to work) was never fun.
- pr0zac 3y ago
  While I'd argue anyone looking to spend under $20k on a car would be better suited going used/pre-owned instead of new, theres really not a price premium on new electric vehicles anymore. The Chevy Bolt MSRP is $26,500[1] (not sure where you saw 28.5) but it qualifies for the $7500 rebate. In the past that was a tax write-off and you still had to pay sticker up front but it changed this year to be a credit the IRS gives the dealer at time of purchase so the price gets immediately knocked down to $19k.[2] Requires the purchaser be under the new income cap to qualify but that includes over 90% of people. Theres only two new cars available in 2024 under $19k, the Nissan Versa and Mitsubishi Mirage. If we look at 2023 theres also the Kia Rio. All three are out of date cars with anemic engines (the Mirage literally makes 78hp) and 0-60 times of 10 seconds or more compared to 200hp and 6.8 seconds for the Bolt. None of the base models have Apple CarPlay or Android Auto unlike the Bolt. Same for safety features/creature comforts like lane assist and adaptive cruise control. Otherwise the next cheapest new car available is the '23 Kia Forte which is a pretty fun car (and can reach highway speed before the heat death of the universe) which is actually in a similar tier to the Bolt and similarly priced at $19.5k.[3] Theres definitely a lot of people who EVs don't work for logistically (myself included until only very recently), and yes you could buy one of three horrifying cars I would not force on my worst enemy for less, but manufacturers know they won't sell overpriced cars so the upfront cost of an EV aligns quite well nowadays with comparable ICE vehicles. 1. https://www.chevrolet.com/electric/bolt-ev https://www.chevrolet.com/electric/bolt-ev 2. https://www.kbb.com/car-news/with-tax-credit-as-down-payment-chevy-bolt-starts-under-20000/ https://www.kbb.com/car-news/with-tax-credit-as-down-payment... 3. https://www.carfax.com/blog/cheapest-cars https://www.carfax.com/blog/cheapest-cars

recursive 3y ago

> once NACS cars with better than 200 mile range What do you think current ranges are? There are very few EVs available with less than 200 miles of range. The Leaf and that Mazda thing are the only ones I know of.