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> There are endless examples of the same sort and that pose the exact same conundrum. Yes, there are countless cases of it actually making sense to have a spar

> There are endless examples of the same sort and that pose the exact same conundrum. Yes, there are countless cases of it actually making sense to have a spare bedroom. But that's beside the point. My point was that for a lot of people it is a decision that they take instinctually, but does not really make sense.

FpUser 3y ago
>"for a lot of people it is a decision that they take instinctually, but does not really make sense." And for a lot of people it does. so what's your point. People will figure out what makes them feel good. They do not need help in this department
- lukas099 3y ago
  > so what's your point. My point is that there is a cognitive bias towards overweighting the allocation of resources toward low-frequency events.
  - FpUser 3y ago
    You do not really know how low the frequency is for a particular person and how important those events are. I think you are making baseless guesses.
    - lukas099 3y ago
      Some of these are family, friends I know very well, and even myself in the past. So I have some reliable information.
      - closewith 3y ago
        I honestly wonder how your friends and family feel about this attitude. Do you think they share it?
        LtWorf 3y ago
        Having read his comments, my guess is that family members don't want to burn the bridge and put up with it, for the sake of family.
  - lelanthran 3y ago
    > My point is that there is a cognitive bias towards overweighting the allocation of resources toward low-frequency events. As I pointed out upthread, low frequency is not the same as low probability. It might not make sense to upfront allocate resources for a low probability event, but it certainly could make sense for a high probability event even if it was low frequency ... like a spare bedroom, or a dining room, or a car with good range. The probability of using those things are 1 i.e. guaranteed.
    - ghaff 3y ago
      I think you’ll probably also find that the “spare” bedroom in many houses ends up getting used for other things—storage, a hobby room, (famously) perhaps an office or second office. My spare bedroom has a futon couch but I actually use the space for various other things most of the time. Most people may have space that’s underutilized much of the time but that doesn’t mean it’s sealed off until they have an overnight guest or a large dinner part. Things aren’t that binary.
  - strix_varius 3y ago
    I'm surprised to see such a bad take on resource allocation on HN. When provisioning servers, do you average your throughput and get enough capacity for that average? Of course not, that would be assinine. You need to be able to serve 24 hours a day, even - especially - during your edge cases. Follow your advice and explain to the CEO that since Black Friday is a "low frequency event," it's fine that your site was down during that one day. A better argument is that you should choose things, including houses and cars, based on edge cases since that is where meaningful differentiation occurs. If I take one road trip each quarter and my car is unable to handle it, then I bought the wrong car.
    - pineaux 3y ago
      Maybe not with the once per quarter road trip. That might not be a bad frequency for renting a nice road trip vehicle. But I generally agree with what you are saying.
    - lukas099 3y ago
      No, the correct analogy would be paying for, maintaining, and storing enough servers for Black Friday year round when the option existg to rent them on Black Friday for 1% the cost.
      - strix_varius 3y ago
        What exactly do you think AWS does mate, during black Friday?
        lukas099 3y ago
        Exactly my point
        strix_varius 3y ago
        Unless your point is that someone should somehow rent an extra bedroom in their own house, it isn't. Such things aren't fungible.
- Retric 3y ago
  The point is loss aversion is a cognitive blind spot which results in people being less happy. Perhaps you really do make use of a guest bedroom often enough it’s worth spending 10’s of thousands on. But isn’t the case everywhere. Perhaps you’re wasting money on excessive car insurance etc across a lifetime of choice it adds up to a massive drag. In terms of EV’s people are spending more time driving to stations because they picture the once a year vacation driving taking 1 hour longer rather than the wasted 5 minutes 48 weeks a year which costs them 4.
  - FpUser 3y ago
    None of what you say applies to me.
    - Retric 3y ago
      Think whatever you want, but loss aversion is a well studied issue. And you are definitely making sub optimal decisions because you’re human. In the end I’m just describing a common mistake, not suggesting you specifically should buy an EV or whatever.
      - FpUser 3y ago
        >"And you are definitely making sub optimal decisions because you’re human." Nope. I prefer to do what I want. And want is the criteria and hence optimal by definition. What others might think about it does not matter at all.
        Dylan16807 3y ago
        This is about what would actually make you happier down the line, not about what other people think. If you could accurately predict what would make you happy, and decide based on that, it would be optimal. You don't.
javawizard 3y ago
I really think that's the crux of the matter: these things are all personal preferences that stem from a deeply emotional place, and emotion rarely makes sense according to the laws of logic. For example: my parents have a truck, a van, and an SUV. Do they need all of those vehicles? No. Do they get used all the time? Yes: my parents are both avid gardeners, they generously lend their vehicles to those who happen to need a truck or a van for the day, and I have several younger siblings who occupy them the rest of the time. And even if they didn't, I could well see my dad still owning a truck purely for the convenience of being able to drive to the local garden center and pick up a load of mulch on a whim - even if in practice that happened twice a year. Emotions are strange things.
- ericd 3y ago
  I guess I don't understand the advantage of having a truck over just doing Home Depot scheduled deliveries, if it's only a few times a year. He's paying like $1,000 for each of those two mulch runs, it's much cheaper just to pay someone else to deliver it to you in their truck, and I'd say it's a lot more convenient, since they're doing all the work there. What am I missing there?

FpUser 3y ago

>"for a lot of people it is a decision that they take instinctually, but does not really make sense." And for a lot of people it does. so what's your point. People will figure out what makes them feel good. They do not need help in this department

lukas099 3y ago
> so what's your point. My point is that there is a cognitive bias towards overweighting the allocation of resources toward low-frequency events.
- FpUser 3y ago
  You do not really know how low the frequency is for a particular person and how important those events are. I think you are making baseless guesses.
  - lukas099 3y ago
    Some of these are family, friends I know very well, and even myself in the past. So I have some reliable information.
    - closewith 3y ago
      I honestly wonder how your friends and family feel about this attitude. Do you think they share it?
      - LtWorf 3y ago
        Having read his comments, my guess is that family members don't want to burn the bridge and put up with it, for the sake of family.
- lelanthran 3y ago
  > My point is that there is a cognitive bias towards overweighting the allocation of resources toward low-frequency events. As I pointed out upthread, low frequency is not the same as low probability. It might not make sense to upfront allocate resources for a low probability event, but it certainly could make sense for a high probability event even if it was low frequency ... like a spare bedroom, or a dining room, or a car with good range. The probability of using those things are 1 i.e. guaranteed.
  - ghaff 3y ago
    I think you’ll probably also find that the “spare” bedroom in many houses ends up getting used for other things—storage, a hobby room, (famously) perhaps an office or second office. My spare bedroom has a futon couch but I actually use the space for various other things most of the time. Most people may have space that’s underutilized much of the time but that doesn’t mean it’s sealed off until they have an overnight guest or a large dinner part. Things aren’t that binary.
- strix_varius 3y ago
  I'm surprised to see such a bad take on resource allocation on HN. When provisioning servers, do you average your throughput and get enough capacity for that average? Of course not, that would be assinine. You need to be able to serve 24 hours a day, even - especially - during your edge cases. Follow your advice and explain to the CEO that since Black Friday is a "low frequency event," it's fine that your site was down during that one day. A better argument is that you should choose things, including houses and cars, based on edge cases since that is where meaningful differentiation occurs. If I take one road trip each quarter and my car is unable to handle it, then I bought the wrong car.
  - pineaux 3y ago
    Maybe not with the once per quarter road trip. That might not be a bad frequency for renting a nice road trip vehicle. But I generally agree with what you are saying.
  - lukas099 3y ago
    No, the correct analogy would be paying for, maintaining, and storing enough servers for Black Friday year round when the option existg to rent them on Black Friday for 1% the cost.
    - strix_varius 3y ago
      What exactly do you think AWS does mate, during black Friday?
      - lukas099 3y ago
        Exactly my point
        strix_varius 3y ago
        Unless your point is that someone should somehow rent an extra bedroom in their own house, it isn't. Such things aren't fungible.
Retric 3y ago
The point is loss aversion is a cognitive blind spot which results in people being less happy. Perhaps you really do make use of a guest bedroom often enough it’s worth spending 10’s of thousands on. But isn’t the case everywhere. Perhaps you’re wasting money on excessive car insurance etc across a lifetime of choice it adds up to a massive drag. In terms of EV’s people are spending more time driving to stations because they picture the once a year vacation driving taking 1 hour longer rather than the wasted 5 minutes 48 weeks a year which costs them 4.
- FpUser 3y ago
  None of what you say applies to me.
  - Retric 3y ago
    Think whatever you want, but loss aversion is a well studied issue. And you are definitely making sub optimal decisions because you’re human. In the end I’m just describing a common mistake, not suggesting you specifically should buy an EV or whatever.
    - FpUser 3y ago
      >"And you are definitely making sub optimal decisions because you’re human." Nope. I prefer to do what I want. And want is the criteria and hence optimal by definition. What others might think about it does not matter at all.
      - Dylan16807 3y ago
        This is about what would actually make you happier down the line, not about what other people think. If you could accurately predict what would make you happy, and decide based on that, it would be optimal. You don't.

javawizard 3y ago

I really think that's the crux of the matter: these things are all personal preferences that stem from a deeply emotional place, and emotion rarely makes sense according to the laws of logic. For example: my parents have a truck, a van, and an SUV. Do they need all of those vehicles? No. Do they get used all the time? Yes: my parents are both avid gardeners, they generously lend their vehicles to those who happen to need a truck or a van for the day, and I have several younger siblings who occupy them the rest of the time. And even if they didn't, I could well see my dad still owning a truck purely for the convenience of being able to drive to the local garden center and pick up a load of mulch on a whim - even if in practice that happened twice a year. Emotions are strange things.

ericd 3y ago
I guess I don't understand the advantage of having a truck over just doing Home Depot scheduled deliveries, if it's only a few times a year. He's paying like $1,000 for each of those two mulch runs, it's much cheaper just to pay someone else to deliver it to you in their truck, and I'd say it's a lot more convenient, since they're doing all the work there. What am I missing there?